The situation in Gaza has finally caught the attention of leaders worldwide. Just yesterday, the UK government hinted at the possibility of recognizing a Palestinian state, yet there were no clear indications on how this would actually mitigate any ongoing violence.
Now, we have Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, who have stepped in and demanded that Hamas return the remaining Israeli hostages, set down their weapons, and cease their control over Gaza. This move is aimed at paving the way for Palestinian statehood and maybe even a two-state resolution.
However, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. These three nations, along with 14 others, recently participated in a three-day UN conference supporting a French-led initiative that also needs Israel to agree to a ceasefire, lift its blockade, and recognize a Palestinian state across all occupied Arab territories. It’s safe to say that the current Israeli government will reject this outright since it implies a withdrawal from places like the West Bank and East Jerusalem, heavily populated by Jewish settlers.
Nonetheless, traditional Arab powers have suddenly begun to question Hamas’s future more assertively, which could radically shift things in the Middle East. This certainly doesn’t bode well for Hamas’ standing.
Remember President Trump’s Abraham Accords? They were supposed to marginalize Hamas by promoting mutual recognition with Israel among Arab nations, all while setting up a network of trade deals and security pacts against a shared rival, Iran.
But Saudi Arabia has remained hesitant about formal ties with Israel. Even before the infamous October 7 events, it had become unlikely, as the violence created by Hamas that day aimed to derail any potential Saudi-Israeli reconciliation.
Egypt has deep-rooted animosity toward Hamas. Back in 2013, President Sisi assumed power after ousting the democratically elected President Mohammed Morsi. This change came at a time when hundreds from the Muslim Brotherhood, linked to Hamas, were eliminated during the uprising.
On the contrary, Qatar has been different; it has acted as a shelter for Hamas leaders for many years and even provided Gaza with essential financial support following Hamas’s rise to power in 2006, when other rich Gulf nations stopped their aid. However, this relationship soured in 2017, when Saudi Arabia and its allies, including Egypt, accused Qatar of being a terrorism sponsor, especially in reference to Hamas.
Until recently, the Qatari leadership served as a negotiator between Israel, the United States, and Hamas. The latest shift from the Gulf state could pressurize Hamas which, despite suffering losses, hasn’t shown signs of surrender following the October escalations.
But what might it actually look like if Hamas ultimately surrenders? History could offer some pointers.
Take, for example, the half-spent war in Lebanon. After Israel invaded in 1982 to quell PLO raids, a truce was achieved in 1984 allowing the PLO to move to Tunisia. This established pattern is a bit of a retrofitted solution, but it certainly doesn’t guarantee peace.
Today’s Tunisian government is critical of Israel and shows little interest in offering refuge to any Hamas militants, even if they wished to leave Gaza. Similarly, neither France nor Italy would likely welcome seasoned warriors seeking solace along their Mediterranean shores.
Moreover, Gulf nations recall the consequences of hosting Yasser Arafat’s followers during his campaign in Kuwait and are thus unlikely to open their doors to Gaza’s refugees. Public indignation over Benjamin Netanyahu’s military actions may exist, but this condemnation hasn’t resulted in tangible support for the victims.
We should remain cautious moving forward. Without support from the United States, the Franco-Saudi plan seems less likely to bring an effective resolution soon. There are still divisions within Israeli society regarding Netanyahu, yet there’s hardly any resurgence in backing “land for peace” endeavors—essentially a settlement where Israel vacates occupied territories in exchange for peace with Palestine.
While Europeans and Arab neighbors may show signs of fatigue concerning the conflict in Gaza, hardliners within both Hamas and Israeli leadership hardly seem to be at their breaking point just yet.
