As US President Donald Trump meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin this Friday in Alaska, the main goal seems to be finding a resolution to the ongoing conflict following Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. To bring about a peace deal regarding Ukraine, any agreement will involve significant discussions on territories, with almost 20% of Ukraine’s land still under Russian control.
Last week, Trump floated the idea of a ceasefire that might involve “some swapping of territories.” However, it’s still unclear which regions he meant since Ukraine has firmly opposed giving up any part of its territory, and Russia has dismissed such concepts as well.
Wednesday saw French President Emmanuel Macron state that Trump clearly communicated during a call with European leaders that Washington seeks a ceasefire, emphasizing the necessity of including Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in any discussions about territorial matters.
Let’s dive into what the maps reveal about the current situation and its implications.
What Areas Are in Question?
Recent discussions suggest a proposal made to US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff by Russian officials, suggesting Ukraine might relinquish the rest of the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, commonly known as the Donbas, in exchange for a ceasefire.
This week, however, the situation in Donetsk took a turn for the worse. Russian troops have made surprising advancements northeast of Dobropilia, changing the dynamics in the area that Witkoff had been talking about with the Kremlin. Although Kyiv seems to downplay these advancements as minor infractions by small Russian units, they nevertheless dispatched reinforcements. Ukrainian sources depict a more troubling picture, indicating that months of relentless Russian pressure have created vulnerabilities that could be seized upon.
How Could a Territory ‘Swap’ Work?
It would be very politically sensitive for Ukraine’s Zelensky to direct an evacuation of numerous civilians and troops from the Donetsk region. The chances that many would comply are slim. Logistically, it seems impossible to transport tens of thousands of civilians promptly within just a matter of days or weeks, matched with the pace of a potential peace agreement coinciding with Moscow’s ongoing military campaigns.
Moscow has minimal viable options to reciprocate. They have gained minor border regions to the north, near Sumy and Kharkiv, considered “buffer zones” by Kremlin officials. But they are pretty small patches of land, which Ukrainian authorities point out also belong to Ukraine, and do not constitute a reasonable exchange.
What About Other Occupied Territories?
Confusion arose regarding Witkoff’s discussions as some wondered whether Putin had loosened his war ambitions, perhaps only requiring the relinquishment of Donetsk for a ceasefire. Historically, Putin has aimed for much more, further complicated by Russia’s constitution, which falsely claims historical ties to Ukraine by referencing all four partially occupied Ukrainian regions as part of its territory.
Currently, Russia controls most of Donetsk and virtually all of Luhansk, along with a two-thirds portion of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the latter having been partly regained from Russian forces in late 2022.
It is uncertain whether Putin would agree to leave the areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia held by Ukraine under Kyiv’s authority. Giving up any of this territory would be unthinkable for Ukraine, as it would involve significant land loss and potentially hand over a hosting city like Zaporizhzhia to Russia. Additionally, Zelensky has warned that ceding territory could provide a launch point for future military actions, noting how Crimea was illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014 and then used as a staging ground for the 2022 assault on Ukraine.
Considerations for Freezing Front Lines
Statements from Ukraine’s European partners imply that the current contact line could serve as a negotiation baseline. This won’t be considered a concession but is nonetheless an essential rhetorical shift. For years, both Europe and Kyiv along with the Biden administration have firmly asserted they wouldn’t accept the Russian occupation of Ukrainian lands. However, since Trump returned to the White House, there’s been a noticeable softening in tone regarding the idea of freezing front lines.
In reality, freezing the front lines could be beneficial for Kyiv at this moment. While the recent Russian moves near Dobropilia suggest gradual gains, overall, the monthslong incremental progress has now shifted toward significant strategic advances for Russian forces. It’s evident that Putin is anticipating additional time, emphasized by slow-moving diplomatic efforts in Istanbul and discussions in Alaska, where the White House has transformed the summit from an urgent peace resolution into a more relaxed “listening exercise.”
For Kyiv, a preferable outcome would be Trump signaling that there’s little to negotiate in the early moments of their meeting, which would then allow for the reinstatement of secondary sanctions against Moscow’s prominent energy allies and customers, including India and China, as suggested last week.
That said, Trump and Putin’s relationship is enveloped in a level of opacity often affecting US national security interests, which could mean the results of their Alaska meeting might not tilt in Ukraine’s favor and carry high stakes.
Nick Paton Walsh of CNN reported from Kyiv, with graphics contributed by Rachel Wilson and Lou Robinson in London.
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