Donald Trump, despite any claims of spirituality, might feel a stirring of empathy towards former Brazilian leader Jair Bolsonaro after hearing the news of Bolsonaro’s sentencing to 27 years for plotting a coup to reclaim his 2022 election loss.
It seems Trump can’t help but see the reflection of his own chaotic attempt to spark a coup on January 6, 2021, in Bolsonaro’s trials. Both politicians faced defeat after their single terms, laid claims to ‘stolen’ elections, and hesitated to follow through with their coup plans.
Trump views this situation through a personal lens, openly deriding Bolsonaro’s trial as less than fair, labeling it a ‘witch hunt.’ To add salt to the wound, although Brazil and the United States usually enjoy favorable trade relations, Trump has leveraged a hefty 50% tariff on Brazilian imports—downright punitive for putting his compatriot on trial.
In this moment, while Trump savors some perceived omnipotence, just a short eight months into his new term post-election, it appears he’s sculpting comfort into his vision of rule rather than shunning it. Some might argue he effectively governs by decree nowadays, with a bent Senate and Congress aligning with his wishes. Yet, while he operates within constitutional bounds—still—there remains a critical question pondering over American democracy: why has Brazil fared better in preserving its democratic values?
The plots unfolding in Brazil were far-reaching and dead serious—a coup involving prominent military figures and even an assassination attempt on Supreme Court members, could have easily spiraled out of control, leveraging chaos to lay the grounds for a military takeover.
Plans of a ‘popular uprising’ amidst violent acts were on paper in the Presidential Palace itself, intended to catalyze a federal government’s capture by force under the guise of restoring Bolsonaro’s presidency.
However, catastrophe was averted when military leadership recoiled at the idea, withdrawing soldiers from the plans at the last possible moment. Despite a displaced group of Bolsonaristas storming Brasília to wreak havoc on Congress and the Supreme Court, their actions went little beyond vandal salvos, far diminished than planned martial success.
Looking back at the U.S., the chaotic Congress siege in January was, by comparison, non-strategic and riddled with confusion. While the Trump fanatics laid plans for protest coinciding with Vice-President Pence’s electoral certification, Trump’s lack of clear directive and eventually bailing out just compounded the disarray.
A breach of the Capitol could have turned tragically different, with fervent Trump supporters almost looking for the Vice-President—but the haphazard brewing here was never going to redeem a clean coup attempt. The contrast to Brazil paints a stark picture, with the mystery lingering: where did America falter?
The key difference was promptitude; Brazil swiftly brought those implicated in contempt to trial, contrasting with the sluggish course observed in the U.S., wherein national accountability was delayed, allowing Trump to skate by.
Initially, impeachment talk rippled through Congress while Trump still held office. Mitch McConnell succinctly summarized the scene: “The mob was fed lies. They were provoked by the president.” However, hesitation led Congress off the hook as old alliances surged forth, effectively postponing any chance for trial.
Undeniably, another far-right populist takeover in America during the 2024 election isn’t off the table—yet America would’ve favoured stability over chaos instead. With consciousness collectively leaning the old school’s direction, the difficult embers of polarization still burn hotly in American discourse.
An overwhelming number of Republican constituents remain convinced of Trump’s 2020 electoral gain despite the reality. Meanwhile, in Brazil, most believe Bolsonaro’s involvement in the coup planning to be undisputed, showcasing an increasingly fractured perception that extends across party lines.
As Brazilian elections gear up for next year, if Bolsonaro’s group clinches the presidency, amnesty would swiftly be in play for him. No paths are visually clear ahead, but while Trump wades through complexities engulfing Brazilian sovereignty—prominent sentiment appears drifting towards Lula. Meanwhile, in the United States, a tumultuous atmosphere shades over the political landscape.
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