As we edge closer to Election Day in California, the contentious debate over the new U.S. House maps is beginning to look rather one-sided. With only weeks left, many Republican challengers find themselves running low on campaign ads and strategies.
The dynamics could still shift, considering that questions on the ballot have historically produced unexpected results. However, data from the industry indicates that Republicans and other critics of the redistricting proposal are significantly cutting back on their television ad spends, which serve as a vital connection to voters across this expansive state.
The redesigned map, driven by Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, seeks to improve the party’s chances of regaining control of the House in 2026 while counteracting a Republican push for additional seats in states like Texas.
Voting started earlier this month and lasts until November 4.
Democrats have returned over 1.5 million mail ballots, greatly surpassing the roughly 853,000 Republican ballots. Given that California’s registered Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one, this statistic isn’t particularly shocking.
Advertising tracker AdImpact has revealed that backers of the democratic reconfiguration are sitting on about $9 million worth of ad placements across traditional TV, cable, and radio. Meanwhile, critics have nearly secured zero ad time, although this doesn’t count placements on major streaming platforms such as Hulu and YouTube, or choices like mail advertising.
To date, supporters have aired almost $70 million worth of ads, in stark contrast to around $31 million from opponents.
The stakes surrounding the Proposition 50 redistricting initiative are significant. A Democrat-controlled House would challenge President Trump’s legislative agenda, and Newsom is viewed as a likely contender for the 2028 presidential election, gaining valuable recognition for defying Trump’s conservative strategies.
“If we lose this election in California, the Democrats’ chances at reclaiming the House will dwindle virtually to nothing,” Newsom expressed during a recent fundraising event for supporters.
Money on the Table
Ahead of the campaign, the Congressional Leadership Fund—a super PAC linked to House Speaker Mike Johnson—had contributed $5 million to opponents. Yet, much-anticipated late Republican funding has not materialized as supporters anticipated.
Investors frequently see funding in deeply Democratic California as a risky proposition for GOP donors. Republicans are simultaneously working to maintain their slim House and Senate majorities elsewhere in the country. Trump, who has mostly stayed away from this election in a state he lost by wide margins in three presidential races, still boasts a dedicated conservative following and accumulated more votes than any previous GOP presidential candidate.
California’s media markets rank among the most expensive nationwide. Securing additional Republican seats won’t just be about addressing Newsom’s new congressional map—tens of millions more are required to safeguard the dwindling number of Republican incumbents.
With the 2026 midterms on the horizon and control of the House at stake, national Republican benefactors “are calculating those funds and determining where they’ll be most effective,” said Tim Lineberger, who served as communications chief in Trump’s 2016 campaign for Michigan. With critical races rapidly popping up nationwide, “those resources may be directed elsewhere rather than contest this likely inevitable loss,” he added.
Nonetheless, with millions of Trump supporters in California, “this is still a vital struggle in this state,” Lineberger elaborated.
Jon Fleishman, a seasoned GOP strategist and former director of the California Republican Party, probing declared, “Does the route to the White House or the Senate or the House really pass through California?”
If insufficient national dollars echo in, “we may sadly find out the answer,” Fleishman noted.
Will California’s Tactics Against Trump Work?
The broader consequence of California’s efforts—with or without a new map in the books next month—remains uncertain.
The suggested congressional maps—devised silently by Democrats—aim to add five Democratic seats and counterbalance Trump’s Texas maneuvers anticipated before the midterms in 2026. This shift could elevate the Democratic presence in California to 48 out of 52 seats from the current 43.
Yet, Republicans aren’t resting on their laurels; they’re strategizing in Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana to potentially add House seats while congressional configurations vary state-by-state. Currently, Republicans have a lean hold over the House with a 219-213 majority and three vacant positions.
Is it Stopping Trump or a Power Grab?
The race condition is established, with Newsom presenting the vote as a crucial gubernatorial battle against Trump for the health of democracy itself. In contrast, Republicans voice that it’s merely a political maneuver to empower Democrats further while sidelining previously drawn House maps from an independent commission.
Several Republican congressmen, who might see their election territories drastically adjusted, have maintained a low profile during the campaign.
The leading financial backer opposing Newsom’s redistricting strategy remains a somewhat under-the-radar financier. Charles Munger Jr., son of the renowned investor Charlie Munger—the mind behind Berkshire Hathaway—has poured over $30 million into the fight against Newsom’s proposal.
Munger has called for voters to circumvent Trump-centric discussions and realize how Newsom’s map might prune essential representation due to political strategy.
Voters ought to determine, “Is this beneficial to you?” Munger posed during a press encounter. “Can we trust them to draw these districts responsibly?”
The campaign has gained attention through a few big-name endorsements: former Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger appears in ads challenging the map change, while prior Democratic President Barack Obama supports the proposal. Still, the contest lacks dynamism without a candidate present.
The Winning Strategy
For Newsom and his supporters to win, they need to surpass that crucial 50 percent mark, leveraging Trump against the opposition to attract large turnouts of Democrats and more left-leaning voters. Considering that Republican voters are merely a quarter of the electorate here, challengers must aim for extraordinary GOP turnout while also wooing some Democrats and appealing to independents.
During a recent rally in suburban Los Angeles opposing the redistricting, retiree Anne White from the Republican side lamented how the new maps might create bizarrely shaped districts combining Republican-leaning rural spaces with liberal coastal cities.
“Those areas essentially have nothing in common,” White remarked. Given that previous districts were laid out through independent, public processes, Newsom, in her opinion, “wants to reverse all that.”
