On Wednesday, the Trump Administration kicked off its long-promised crackdown on unauthorized immigration in San Francisco. This move included deploying an additional 100 federal agents to a city often at the center of conservative political discourse.
By doing this, they reaffirmed President Trump’s repeated claim that immigrants are behind a surge of violent crime in the U.S.
But here’s the kicker: these claims fly in the face of extensive crime data analysis conducted over decades, as uncovered by a review by the Chronicle.
The Department of Homeland Security has stated that the goal of these raids was to round up “the worst of the worst” among criminal undocumented immigrants, including murderers, rapists, and gangsters, operating in cities like Portland, Chicago, and San Francisco. Although Trump mentioned he had canceled the planned initiative for San Francisco, agents were still deployed, leaving us unsure about the intent behind that announcement.
Many people believe that undocumented immigrants are more prone to commit crime, a viewpoint that undoubtedly helped propel Trump into office.
However, numerous studies reveal that immigrants do not commit crimes at rates higher than those born in the U.S. In fact, findings suggest the opposite. Research often shows immigrants engaging in criminal activities at lower rates.
For instance, a recent analysis funded by the U.S. Department of Justice, looking at arrest records in Texas, found that undocumented immigrants were arrested for violent and drug-related crimes at less than half the rate of American citizens, and only a quarter for property crimes. Additionally, a comprehensive review of multiple studies conducted in 2017 indicated a weak connection between immigration and crime, revealing that immigrants actually tend to commit crimes at slightly lower rates.
Recently compiled research backs up the assertion that immigrants, including those without legal status, generally commit fewer crimes than those born in the U.S.
Charis Kubrin, a criminologist at UC Irvine and a long-time researcher in this field, emphasizes that the idea of immigrants increasing crime is not new but deeply rooted in the fabric of American history, where immigrants have often been unjustly blamed for various societal issues.
Kubrin points out that the perpetuation of the ‘criminal immigrant’ stereotype can largely be attributed to two reasons: Firstly, politicians frequently employ negative rhetoric against immigrants to gain electoral support. Trump’s 2024 campaign exemplified this practice.
Secondly, while statistically, immigrants do not fare poorly in terms of crime, there will always be individuals from any demographic group who commit offenses, and media coverage typically highlights their immigration status disproportionately.
For example, how often do we see headlines mentioning, ‘a native-born American commits a crime’? In immigrant cases, their legal status often takes center stage in crime reporting when, in fact, most crimes are committed by non-immigrants.
Initially, the notion that immigration could lead to increased crime seemed reasonable — it was theorized that newcomers might disrupt local stability with their different customs and languages. However, substantial data disproving this theory has led researchers to abandon it in favor of a new concept: immigration revitalization theory.
This emerging theory proposes that when immigrants settle in economically underserved neighborhoods, they forge strong networks among themselves that bolster local community activities. These connections enhance institutions like schools and religious organizations, which are vital for reducing crime by promoting community engagement and offering resources that deter criminal behavior.
Ironically, the recent federal enforcement initiatives should yield opposite outcomes than those intended by Trump’s administration. Researchers, including Kubrin, argue that local police involvement in immigration enforcement damages community trust.
A fresh study from economists at UCLA and Northwestern revealed that the Secure Communities Program, which involved local law enforcement in detaining undocumented immigrants, did not decrease crime rates in the targeted areas and, in fact, resulted in a 16% increase in crimes against Hispanic individuals, frequently discouraging them from reporting abuse.
During her work, Kubrin often accompanies police officers on rides. In one instance, an officer candidly expressed their aversion to participating in immigration enforcement, explaining how it undermines their ability to collect information effectively and deteriorates public trust: ‘It makes it really hard to do our job because people don’t trust us anymore. They wonder if we’re there to protect them or if we’re just another arm of immigration enforcement.’
