A recent nationwide poll shows an interesting trend: around half of Americans view crime as a serious issue, but this marks the second consecutive year that concern is on the decline.
This shift indicates positive progress. After all, violent crime rates have been decreasing in many urban areas since the height of the pandemic, and stories about crime spikes are becoming less frequent. However, there’s more to this story: the landscape of crime itself is evolving, along with the demographics of those involved.
For years, experts pointed to the concept of the “age-crime curve.” This pattern suggested that the majority of crimes were committed by individuals in their late teens or early twenties, tapering off as they matured. Yet, data from recent arrests suggests that this curve has shifted significantly. Now, arrests for various crimes, like aggravated assault and burglary, tend to occur around age 32—nearly a decade older than previous models indicated. Even for violent crimes such as robbery and murder, the average arrest age has jumped in the last couple of decades.
Additionally, the trend seems to mirror among crime victims. National reports indicate that the average age of murder victims has grown from about 34 in 2020 to 36 in 2024. There’s an apparent increase in the percentage of victims aged 40 and older, while younger people make up a smaller fraction of homicide victims.
In essence, it’s clear that while violence in America hasn’t vanished, it’s noticeably shifted to an older population.
Some of these changes can be tied to the simple fact that the U.S. is aging. As the population gets older, it influences who commits crimes and who falls victim to them. Alongside demographic shifts, cultural factors play their part too. Interestingly, younger generations seem to be less engaged in conventional street crime, likely due to better early-intervention systems, social media influences, and changing social attitudes. However, the factors that kick in during adulthood—like substance abuse, partner conflicts, economic struggles, and untreated mental health issues—now play a bigger role in serious crime rates.
The challenge here is that America’s public safety policies haven’t really adapted to these changes. Most federal and state grant programs still focus primarily on preventing youth violence, which remains a crucial issue, but adult violent crime is becoming a more significant part of the problem. The research indicates that the majority of both offenders and victims are adults, often well past their twenties.
Recognizing this shift doesn’t mean just adding more layers of bureaucracy—it calls for a smarter approach focused on where interventions will be most beneficial. Legislative attempts to “get tough” with stricter juvenile sentencing laws, while likely well-intentioned, aren’t likely to enhance community safety since much of the violence arises from adults. Evidence indicates that the effectiveness of deterrence hinges on the likelihood of getting caught and not on how severe the punishment is. Federal and state prevention grants should expressly target adults who are high-risk for violence, especially those dealing with addiction, unstable housing, or familial disputes, as data shows that targeted behavioral-health programs can diminish repeat offenses in this demographic.
Similarly, police tactics must align with the reality that many severe incidents now arise from domestic issues, substance reliance, or interpersonal conflicts rather than merely youth gang violence. Officers need to be trained in effective communication and documentation while collaborating with community services, so they’re equipped to tackle the most common issues they face.
Furthermore, stronger investigative practices, higher closure rates, and consistent outcomes via incarceration, mandated treatments, or supervision can reinforce the kind of predictability needed to deter crime.
In conclusion, both crime prevention and enforcement must go hand in hand: efforts like adult treatment courts, reentry services, and probation initiatives more effectively combat recidivism when accountability is paired with mental health and employment support, leading to safer and more stable communities.
A reduction in fear around crime is encouraging, but we must not become complacent. The nature of crime in America has shifted from groups of teenage gang members to adult confrontations emerging under stress. It’s important to comprehend that while almost half of the population perceives crime as a pressing issue, they are reacting to an evolved problem that has outpaced our current policies.
Crime isn’t simply diminishing—it’s growing older. Until our public safety strategies catch up, the perceived drop in crime levels reflected in surveys may remain out of sync with the real-life implications on our streets.
Jillian Snider is a resident senior fellow at the R Street Institute, an adjunct lecturer at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, and a retired NYPD officer.
