This Monday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced it would not be releasing its advance estimate for the third-quarter GDP as previously planned.
They cited disruptions from the ongoing federal government shutdown for the cancellation. However, this has ignited debate and led to rumors that the release was postponed due to lackluster data.
Why This Matters
The cancellation adds to the list of government reports being pushed back, including the October jobs report. This trend is fueling questions about the reality of the economy, especially as President Donald Trump touts growth amidst rising worries about affordability and unemployment.
What You Need to Know
The advance estimate for third-quarter GDP was supposed to come out on October 30, but there’s no word on when, or if, it will be rescheduled.
Additionally, the BEA has also delayed the release of the September inflation figures, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not be sharing data on October jobs and the Consumer Price Index due to data collection issues.
Some critics suspect that the GDP report is being kept under wraps to mask poor economic performance.
Democratic Representative Rosa DeLauro expressed her thoughts on X, saying, “They only do this when it’s really good news.” Meanwhile, Representative Darren Soto commented, “Trump’s tariff situation: My ‘advanced estimate’ is that the economy is struggling.”
Edward Dowd, a tech entrepreneur and author, suggested on X that not releasing the report might indicate significant issues with the economy during what some refer to as the “Golden Economy.”
Commentator BrooklynDad_Defiant! also weighed in, saying, “Nothing says ‘booming economy’ like… canceling the GDP report. If it were good, they wouldn’t hide it. Very interesting that both the Jobs Report and GDP Report have been canceled at the same time for the first time in history. This Trump economy is in trouble.”
Similarly, Vince Wilson remarked on X, “First they axed the jobs report due to the shutdown, and now the Q3 GDP report is off… just how bad is our economy that they’d rather keep this data hidden?”
Despite the surrounding chatter, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which tracks available economic data in real time, is projecting strong growth for the third quarter.
Responses from Officials
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, earlier this month, pointed a finger at Democrats for both the shutdown and the resulting delays in data. She claimed: “The Democrats may have permanently damaged the Federal Statistical system; we might never see the October CPI and jobs reports come out.”
She added, “All data released will be affected long-term, leaving our policymakers at the Fed operating without crucial insights during a pivotal time.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell elaborated in October that the delay of timely economic data because of the shutdown could impact the Fed’s decisions: “What do you do when you’re driving in the fog? You slow down.”
What’s Next?
As things stand, there’s no new date for the release of the third-quarter GDP estimate, which leaves a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the U.S. economy.
