According to recent analysis by Realtor.com, if Florida goes through with Governor Ron DeSantis’s plan to completely eliminate property taxes, home prices in the Sunshine State are likely to shoot up by about 7% to 9% almost instantly.
Why Should We Care?
This move is part of a broader trend seen in several Republican-led states trying to kill or significantly cut property taxes this year, aiming to give a little bit of relief to homeowners who are deeply affected by rising housing costs.
Following the pandemic’s peak, property taxes across the U.S. have swelled due to an increase in home values, which came along with climbing housing prices and higher borrowing costs. This has all resulted in a housing affordability crisis that continues to grip the nation.
While the idea of scrapping property taxes might sound appealing to some homeowners—especially those who scooped up properties at pandemic highs—this would likely worsen the affordability crisis many Americans are currently battling.
What’s DeSantis’s Position?
DeSantis has been pushing for the state legislature to put a law in place that eliminates property taxes altogether, labeling it as one of the “most burdensome and ineffective” tax forms.
In a post on X back in May, he declared, “Truly owning private property should not mean perpetually paying rent to the government. I’m committed to reducing—and ultimately eliminating—property taxes for homeowners in Florida.”
Expert Reactions
However, some experts aren’t on board with this proposition. Dr. Esteban Leonardo Santis, head of research at the Florida Policy Institute, warned in an interview with Newsweek that the state may not be financially equipped to scrap property taxes, hinting that a sales tax hike might be needed to offset the lost revenues.
Santis stated, “Any of these proposals are just shifting costs. It raises the question: who is going to shoulder the burden? A lot of the discussions are on whether local governments can handle it, but if you consider full elimination, either sales tax percentages will go up, or we’ll need to find funds elsewhere through local taxes or service cuts.”
According to experts at Realtor.com, while dumping property taxes would boost the value of Florida’s owner-occupied homes by around $200 billion to $250 billion, it would spell trouble for future first-time buyers as it pushes home prices even higher.
People Have Opinions
Joel Berner, a senior economist at Realtor.com, noted: “This would be a win for present property owners but would skew unfairly toward wealthier Floridians while complicating the dream of homeownership for those without homes due to escalating prices.”
Housing economist Ken Johnson, who holds the Christie Kirkland Walker chair at the University of Mississippi, warns: “If the economy remains strong, everything should go fine. However, if a recession hits, we may end up with too many homes on the market.”
He pointed out that if a national economic downturn happens, Florida could face an increase in sales of vacation homes—which constitute roughly 10% of the housing landscape—leading to a surplus that ultimately drives prices lower.
Johnson explained, “The serious risk is a recession. As real estate prices fall, so will tourism revenue and taxes that support out-of-state homeowners with rentals and second homes. A deep recession could shake Florida’s housing market and severely impact the state budget.”
What’s Coming Up?
According to Realtor.com, the exact results of Florida’s planned property tax overhaul on home prices will depend on details of the specifics approved by voters next year, alongside any unforeseen supply or demand swings.
Currently, it seems that Florida legislators are hesitant about pushing forward with DeSantis’s plan to entirely wipe out property taxes.
In October, they proposed eight possible initiatives to lighten the property tax load for homeowners in Florida, with seven of those appearing on the 2026 general election ballot—one specifically targeting the elimination of tax on non-school homesteads.
While DeSantis critiqued lawmakers for their multiple proposals, tagging them as “not genuine attempts to serve the public,” Florida House Speaker Daniel Perez countered, indicating that DeSantis has yet to put forward his own solid plan for tax elimination within the state.
Jeff Brandes, a past state senator and current head of the Florida Policy Project, seconds this sentiment, stating that the idea of abolishing property taxes is more of a “bumper sticker” for DeSantis—a tool to boost his popularity as he aims for the 2028 presidential election.
To ditch property taxes in Florida would require a constitutional amendment appealing to 60% of the voters to garner support.
