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Australia Bureau of Meteorology forecasts rain for Australia's firegrounds

13:31  14 january  2020
13:31  14 january  2020 Source:   abc.net.au

BOM warns of flash flooding as rain forecast to bring bushfire relief across NSW

  BOM warns of flash flooding as rain forecast to bring bushfire relief across NSW Rain across NSW this week will "take the sting" out of bushfires, the RFS says, but the cost could be flooding, landslides and contaminated water.Cooler and wetter conditions predicted for the east coast are good news for firefighters who have been battling hundreds of fires across the state since September.

Sorry South Australia and southern Western Australia , it looks like you will be missing out on this round of rainfall . But once the trough has gone through there could potentially be even Australia just had its , according to the Bureau of Meteorology , continuing a long-running trend in the country.

Relief at last: Australia ' s firegrounds set to be drenched by heavy rainfall on Friday giving huge Rain is expected from Tuesday, including in South Coast and Snowy Mountains About 2-8mm is forecast for Sydney on Thursday and 5-10mm on Friday However, the Bureau of Meteorology said it was difficult to predict exactly how much rain

a close up of a map: Keep your fingers crossed, Australia, there just might be some rain on the way. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)© Provided by ABC NEWS Keep your fingers crossed, Australia, there just might be some rain on the way. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)

Finally, there's a forecast to get excited about.

Widespread rainfall is expected for the east coast of the country, including the firegrounds, starting tomorrow and lasting into the weekend.

Falls of 5 millimetres to 10mm are forecast for much of the east coast, with the potential of 50mm if you happen to be under a thunderstorm.

Rain set to continue in parts of NSW

  Rain set to continue in parts of NSW Rain is expected to continue in parts of NSW after days of wet weather that has helped dampen blazes, though flash flooding and landslips remain a risk.Rain is expected to continue lashing parts of drought-stricken NSW.

It' s not going to end the drought and it doesn't count until it hits the ground, but this BOM forecast is getting even the Rural Fire Service excited.

Bureau of Meteorology web homepage provides the Australian community with access to weather forecasts , severe weather warnings, observations, flood information, marine and high seas forecasts and climate Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology . Skip to main content (press enter).

Rainfall would be welcome, but it may yet be a double-edged sword.

Where is the rain coming from?

The tropical north has been getting a deluge over the last few days as the monsoon trough has finally made its way down to Australia.

Sarah Scully, extreme weather forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), said the monsoon had brought an increase in humidity and available moisture to mainland Australia.

Bureau of Meteorology forecasts rain for Australia's firegrounds© ABC News Images Bureau of Meteorology forecasts rain for Australia's firegrounds

"As well as that, over eastern Australia we've had a high-pressure system that's been sitting in the Tasman Sea," she said.

"That's been directing a moist onshore flow over the eastern part of Australia over the last few days."

All of this moisture is forecast to collide with a deepening low-pressure trough.

Move your cars indoors NOW: Warnings of huge supercell storm with massive hail to hit Sydney this afternoon

  Move your cars indoors NOW: Warnings of huge supercell storm with massive hail to hit Sydney this afternoon Rain, hail and enormous thunderstorms are predicted to sweep across the east coast of Australia and hit Sydney and Melbourne by Monday afternoon.Large hail stones, damaging winds and much-needed heavy rainfall will likely hit swathes of southern NSW by Monday afternoon.

Image: Forecast accumulated rain for the eight days ending on Tuesday, January 21st. Data from the ECMWF-HRES model. While this type of weather pattern is typical during summer, it's the first widespread rain and storm Bureau of Meteorology forecasts rain for Australia ' s firegrounds .

Australia just had its , according to the Bureau of Meteorology , continuing a long-running trend in the country. A chart produced by the bureau and updated with 2019 figures (shown above) displays a stark transformation over the past Bureau of Meteorology forecasts rain for Australia ' s firegrounds .

The trough is expected to develop over central to western New South Wales, extending right down into Victoria over the coming days, according to Ms Scully.

What's exciting is that the trough is forecast to be really slow moving, bringing plenty of opportunities for showers and storms as it slowly makes its way across to the east coast.

"So with the instability that's created by this trough, plus the increased humidity, all those ingredients go together to create a really unstable environment with increased showers and thunderstorms," Ms Scully said.

Will it be enough to put the fires out?

Bureau of Meteorology forecasts rain for Australia's firegrounds© ABC News Images Bureau of Meteorology forecasts rain for Australia's firegrounds

Even the Rural Fire Service is getting hopeful about the predicted rainfalls.

Ms Scully said there was potential for fires that were beneath a thunderstorm to be contained by that rainfall.

"The best-case scenario, with the ongoing showers and storms from Wednesday onwards, is that they can really impact and help to extinguish some of the fires," she said.

Warning over dangers of much-needed rain

  Warning over dangers of much-needed rain The NSW SES is warning that rain predicted to fall across the state will bring with it the risk of landslips and flash flooding.The NSW SES is warning that much-needed rain and thunderstorms forecast to sweep across the state could bring new risks.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is an Executive Agency of the Australian Government responsible for providing weather services to Australia and surrounding areas. It was established in 1906 under the Meteorology Act, and brought together the state meteorological services that existed before then.

The Bureau of Meteorology ' s blog gives you the background and inside information on weather, climate, oceans, water and space weather. You can tap to access the detailed forecast , which includes the possible rainfall range (right image) as well as the chance of any rain for the day.

But keep those fingers crossed, because the hit-and-miss nature of thunderstorms means that the rainfall can vary a lot.

"It's very likely that there's going to be an increase in shower and thunderstorm activities," Ms Scully said.

"What's difficult to say is the exact location where the heaviest totals are going to be accumulated."

It's not going to end the drought and it doesn't count until it hits the ground, but this BOM forecast is getting even the Rural Fire Service excited.© ABC news images It's not going to end the drought and it doesn't count until it hits the ground, but this BOM forecast is getting even the Rural Fire Service excited.

As well as possibly dampening the fires, this rain could reduce the chance of new ones forming.

Over the last few months a series of dry frontal systems have swept across parched southern Australia, generating dry lightning and new fires.

"At least with this heavy rainfall the ground will be more moist and it'll be harder to ignite," Ms Scully said.

She said lightning associated with the storms over the next few days would be accompanied by rain, so less of a risk of starting fires.

Bursts of rain come with risks

But there are definitely hazards associated with this next batch of weather.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Claudia expected to form on Saturday

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Bureau of Meteorology web homepage provides the Australian community with access to weather forecasts , severe weather warnings, observations, flood information, marine and high seas This is a dynamic map of Australia . Select one of the state links to view a forecast for that state.

Provides access to Australia weather forecasts , warnings, observations and radar and satellite imagery provided by the Bureau of Meteorology . Forecast . Now. Rain since 9 am.

"There's a risk of flash flooding and landslips with any heavy bursts of rainfall, particularly over the dry and burnt out areas of NSW and eastern Victoria," Ms Scully said.

"They are particularly vulnerable because the recent fires have cleared the groundcover, which allows or accelerates the runoff and also reduces the absorption by vegetation."

The runoff can also contain contaminants and be a risk for tanks and waterways.

Just a small amount of rainfall can also be a hazard to firefighters because it can make conditions slippery, making operating heavy machinery in the bush difficult and reducing the effectiveness of backburning.

According to Ms Scully, strong winds associated with the thunderstorms also increases the risk that trees, recently weakened by fire, could fall.

Not everyone will be getting the rain

Sorry South Australia and southern Western Australia, it looks like you will be missing out on this round of rainfall.

But once the trough has gone through there could potentially be even more good news in its wake.

The trough bringing rain to the east is expected to move off the coast by Monday or Tuesday, but the next system to move across the country could also bring rain, thanks to Tropical Cyclone Claudia, currently spinning off the West Australian coast.

"It's still a number of days away, but it does look like some of the moisture from Tropical Cyclone Claudia may be picked up by the passage of a frontal system," Ms Scully said.

Perhaps it is worth crossing your toes, too.

Drought-breaking rain?

Before you get your hopes up, no, it is not nearly enough rain to be drought breaking.

"Look, Australia's been in a really long drought and it's going to take many above-average rainfall events for it to really have any impact on the drought conditions," Ms Scully said.

This week's rain is very welcome but with no strong indication of wetter-than-average conditions on the long-term outlook we aren't out of the woods yet.

Urgent warning is issued as Tropical Cyclone Claudia brings half a metre of rain to parts of the Northern Territory .
The cyclone warning has been issued for the sparsely populated areas between Mitchell Plateau and Beagle Bay. © Provided by Daily Mail A cyclone warning has been issued for Western Australia's remote Kimberley region after more than half a metre of rain fell in some parts of Top End The category one storm is forecast to develop into a category three cyclone as it tracks off the Western Australian coast, the weather bureau says.

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