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Australia SA modelling to set ongoing virus rules

07:56  28 september  2021
07:56  28 september  2021 Source:   aap.com.au

Doctor blasts Covid modelling that will keep Melbourne in lockdown

  Doctor blasts Covid modelling that will keep Melbourne in lockdown One of Australia's top doctors has slammed 'overcautious' modelling that could keep long suffering Melburnians in lockdown until November. Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews released the state's roadmap out of lockdown on Sunday on a week Melbourne is set to become the most lockdown city in the world during the Covd-19 pandemic.The roadmap predicts Melburnians to be released from their sixth lockdown on October 26, when Victoria is predicted to hit 70 per cent double vaccination.New modelling from the Burnet Institute has predicted Victoria could record up to 3,000 cases a day within weeks.

In one modeled scenario, the researchers found that after a short cough, the number of infectious particles in the air would quickly fall after 1 to 7 minutes; in contrast, after speaking for 30 seconds, only after 30 minutes would the number of infectious particles fall to similar levels; and a high number of particles were still suspended after one hour. "Evolution of the novel coronavirus from the ongoing Wuhan outbreak and modeling of its spike protein for risk of human transmission". Science China Life Sciences.

All viruses , including SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, change over time. Most changes have little to no impact on the virus ’ properties. However, some changes may affect the virus ’s properties, such as how easily it spreads, the associated disease severity, or the performance of During late 2020, the emergence of variants that posed an increased risk to global public health prompted the characterisation of specific Variants of Interest (VOIs) and Variants of Concern (VOCs), in order to prioritise global monitoring and research, and ultimately to inform the ongoing response to

South Australia will conduct its own modelling and use national analysis to help set the level of ongoing COVID-19 restrictions and border closures once vaccine targets are hit, Premier Steven Marshall says.

Steven Marshall says some restrictions will stay after the 80 per cent vaccination target is met. © Naomi Jellicoe/AAP PHOTOS Steven Marshall says some restrictions will stay after the 80 per cent vaccination target is met.

The premier says some level of social health measures and border rules will remain in place even after 80 per cent of eligible people are double vaccinated.

But he says SA wants to move away from statewide lockdowns and full state lockouts.

"There will still need to be some caps, some density arrangements in place with these public health social measures and they are likely to be in place for some time," Mr Marshall told reporters on Tuesday.

Modelling predicts Victoria's COVID-19 cases could soar into thousands

  Modelling predicts Victoria's COVID-19 cases could soar into thousands Victoria could be recording thousands of COVID-19 cases a day by late October risking the hospital system to become overrun, modelling has shown. Modelling from the Burnet Institute, released yesterday, revealed Victoria's peak for its Delta outbreak is estimated to occur between October 19 and 31, where as many as 1400-2900 daily cases could be recorded over a seven-day average.Hospitalisations could soar to 1200-2500 patients, as well 260-550 people in ICU, with 24 per cent of simulations resulting in hospital demand exceeding 2500.

There are special bodies like the WHO [World Health Organization] to handle those outbreaks. Most of the respiratory viruses especially hit the Asian part of the world, so countries like China, Japan or South Korea, learned how to act. “It is a normal process of viruses to adapt as they move through large numbers of people, and the very process of having lots of infections which occur, enables the virus to adapt,” Prof. Dockrell insists. His Spanish colleague explains the mechanism in a more detailed way.

Using these relaxed- model parameters, the overall molecu-lar evolutionary rate (nucleotide substitutions/site/year) of the entire data set was in agreement with previously reported rates (6). For each segment, the overall mean rate and 95% HPD interval for each segment was the ( SA 75). This lineage was not detected in either the 1997-1998 or 2006-2007 outbreak. While the shared evolutionary history of the 1997-1998 and 2007 RVF outbreak viruses is apparent on the basis of phylog-eny, more detailed Bayesian analyses were completed to more fully characterize this relationship.

"We will still need to have a high testing regime in place. People infected and their close contacts will still need to be isolated.

"But the over-arching outcome we want is an end to statewide lockdowns and an end to whole-of-state blockouts.

"That doesn't mean we'll just be removing all restrictions when we get to that 80 per cent."

In terms of opening up to NSW and Victoria, Mr Marshall said it was likely people coming across the border would all need to be double vaccinated and there would still need to be some form of testing arrangements.

SA has hard border closures in place with both states, with even returning South Australians requiring a special exemption to travel.

Also on Tuesday, the state's transition committee met and decided against relaxing any local coronavirus measures.

Delta more deadly than national plan assumes

  Delta more deadly than national plan assumes The research team whose work underpins Australia's pandemic exit strategy believes the Delta strain of the virus is significantly more deadly than they assumed when the national plan was adopted. © Getty Although the overall death rate from COVID in Australia is lower this year than last year, that is due to the high levels of vaccination within vulnerable communities.

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"Our data from the rabbit model suggests that people exposed to MERS-CoV who fail to develop a neutralizing antibody response, or persons whose neutralizing antibody titers have waned, may be at risk for severe lung disease on re-exposure to MERS-CoV." In other words, if the vaccine does not result in a robust response in neutralizing antibodies, you might be at risk for more severe lung disease if you're infected with the The paper also cites research showing "Antibodies elicited by a SARS-CoV vaccine enhanced infection of B cell lines in spite of protective responses in the hamster model ."

There was some suggestion mask mandates would be eased, but the committee decided to keep the current rules in place which require masks to be worn in most indoor settings, including workplaces, shopping centres and on public transport.

Other restrictions left unchanged included the general density rule of three people to every four square metres for seated activity and one to every two square metres for standing events.

Home gatherings remain limited to 20 people while private functions, including weddings and funerals, can have up to 150.

SA Health reported no new local virus cases on Tuesday with authorities dealing with three active infections.

All those cases involved returned overseas travellers in hotel quarantine.

Queensland Speaker dismisses LNP referral of Palaszczuk to parliamentary committee over Doherty COVID modelling .
A referral made by the Queensland Opposition alleging Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk deliberately misled Parliament over Doherty Institute COVID modelling is dismissed by the Speaker.Last Friday, LNP MP Jarrod Bleijie wrote to Speaker Curtis Pitt asking he consider referring Ms Palaszczuk to the Ethics Committee to determine whether she deliberately misled the House this month.

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This is interesting!