Australia BOM declares La Niña alert as the east braces for storms this week

09:06  12 october  2021
09:06  12 october  2021 Source:   abc.net.au

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Criteria for La Niña declaration : Sea surface temperatures in regions of the eastern Pacific are 0.8C cooler than average. Trade winds have been stronger than average in the western or central Pacific during any three of the past four months. Southern Oscillation Index, a measure of the difference in Dr Watkins said he hoped the La Niña would mean there was a bit more rain before summer that would help to keep the bushfire risk lower than the past couple of years. "But we can never forget southern Australia will always get dry and hot over summer," he said. "There always will be some bushfires, but

As the La Niña that's dominated our climate for the past few months officially dies, we're back in the hands of local climate drivers. BOM climatologist Naomi Benger stressed, though, that it did not mean it would be all blue skies for the foreseeable future. "What it really means is that La Niña is no longer dominating our climate but other localised drivers will become the primary influencers," she said. "In particular, we're expecting the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) to move through the Australian tropics, and that's going to increase cloudiness and rainfall over the next week or two for northern Australia."

The severe weather season has already made its presence felt. (Supplied: Jason Barry) © Provided by ABC NEWS The severe weather season has already made its presence felt. (Supplied: Jason Barry)

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has announced a La Niña alert, signalling a 70 per cent chance that the rainfall-encouraging climate driver will form in the coming months.

The BOM has indicated the shift from La Niña watch to La Niña alert has come after the eastern Pacific Ocean continued to cool throughout September.

Six of the seven climate models the BOM monitor now indicate Australia will reach La Niña status by November.

La Niña conditions traditionally encourage wetter-than-average spring and summer conditions for northern and eastern Australia.

BOM severe weather outlook for 2021 to 2022 forecasts heightened risk of flood and cyclones

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La Niña occurs every few years, with the last significant stretch taking place in 2010-2012, one of the strongest to date. This was Australia’s wettest two year period on record, with some of the most widespread and devastating flooding and storms impacting south- east Queensland. “The impacts of La Niña can vary significantly between events. It is likely this year will not see the same intensity as the 2010-11 La Niña event, but is still likely to be of moderate strength,” BOM described of the incoming weather event. Well, at least more rain equates to no bushfires this year, right?

BOM says La Niña 's now an even chance to reign again this summer. ABC Weather. The tropical storm was forecast to make landfall near Tokyo Tuesday but it is now looking like it will skirt along the east coast tonight before making It's snow time: BOM warns to brace for wintry week all the way up to Queensland. ABC Weather. BOM declares La Niña over – but that doesn't mean the rain is done.

Wetter-than-average conditions have long been tipped for the coming season.

The BOM's severe weather outlook, released yesterday, warned of an above-average risk of flooding for eastern Australia and average to slightly above-average risk of tropical cyclones this season.

Wild weather coming for the south-east

Heavy rain has fallen over Central Australia and parts of Queensland this week thanks to a trough extending across the continent.

Hail was reported in Alice Springs, Birdsville recorded 23.4 millimetres in the 24 hours to 9:00am today, while 75mm fell at Mount Glorious and 35mm at Brisbane.

But attention is turning to the Bight, where a front and low pressure system are developing.

They are expected to bring wild weather including heavy rain, severe thunderstorms, snow and strong winds to much of the south-east of the continent this week.

Super-cell thunderstorms set to batter south-east Queensland as BOM warns of 'giant hail', destructive winds

  Super-cell thunderstorms set to batter south-east Queensland as BOM warns of 'giant hail', destructive winds South-east Queensland should prepare for a battering on Thursday, with several super-cell storms set to sweep the state bringing "giant hail" and destructive winds.Having just copped a drenching on Monday, the region now faces a new destructive weather system that will be slow moving and likely feature severe thunderstorms with possible "giant hail",  which the bureau classifies as anything larger than 5 centimetres.

The odds of a La Nina in the coming months have improved to a 70 per cent chance – roughly three times the normal likelihood – and it’s not the only climate driver that could potentially favour wet conditions heading into spring. Bureau of Meteorology ( BOM ) climatologist Naomi Benger said La Nina could mean a few different things for the Australian region. “The last significant La Nina event was in 2010-11, and that was Australia’s wettest two-year period on record,” she said. When there is a La Nina , the Walker circulation intensifies, bringing wet and warm conditions to Australia. Graphic: BOM .

La Nina declared : Unexpected effect of climate driver. But La Nina has a bushfire sting in its tail – as the New South Wales Fire and Rescue Service laid out in a tweet on Tuesday. La Nina may well bring a welcome change to Australia’s parched east . The nation’s east coast is bracing for a heatwave less than a week after copping torrential rain, hail, and storms .

The BOM expects the system to be slow-moving, making for multiple days of rain and storms.

Widespread impacts are expected from Wednesday, while Thursday is expected to be a very active day, according to the BOM.

The wet conditions are expected to linger on Friday before things clear up for the weekend.

Video: Sydney's water affected by weather conditions (9News.com.au)

Severe storms whack south-east Queensland with hail and heavy rainfall .
Severe storms return to south-east Queensland, with multiple reports of heavy rain and hail across the region. Severe thunderstorm warnings for giant hailstones, damaging winds and heavy rain are current for people in parts of Capricornia, Wide Bay and Burnett and the south-east coast districts.The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said there was a supercell shifting north on the central coast between Westwood and Mount Morgan.Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) have advised people should seek shelter indoors and secure any loose outdoor items, as damaging winds and giant hail were likely to hit the area.

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