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Australia Race-by-race tips and preview for Warwick Farm on Wednesday

13:21  06 december  2022
13:21  06 december  2022 Source:   smh.com.au

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Selections based on a good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.

RACE 1 - 2.20PM: THE AUTUMN SUN AT ARROWFIELD PLATE (1100m)

5. Roussillon had factors against him and had no luck on debut at Cranbourne 25 days ago. Further, the colt wasn’t suited after getting too far back in a slow tempo and then was blocked at critical stages throughout the straight. To his credit, once clear he hit the line hard and clocked one of the meeting’s fastest final 200m splits. The Godolphin galloper brings a race experience edge, can settle closer up in distance and expect a forward showing.

Racing heads to Warwick Farm on Wednesday. © Getty Racing heads to Warwick Farm on Wednesday.

Dangers: Stablemate 3. Los Padres has trialled well for this assignment and went through the line full of energy in a recent heat at Gosford. He has a tricky draw, but Tim Clark rides and expect him to be in the finish. First-starter 1. Deciduous is well educated and comes out of the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott yard. He will roll forward and will undoubtedly give a sight. Definite chance. 6. Chilled has trialled well enough and add 8. Miss Belgium to wider exotics.How to play it: Roussillon to win.Odds and Evens: Odds.

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RACE 2 - 2.55PM: KIA ORA STALLIONS HANDICAP (1100m)

4. Silentsar resumes as a gelding this prep and has trialled well recently at Rosehill, where he wasn’t extended. The three-year-old raced well last campaign in strong form references surrounding gallopers such as Osipenko and Koshu. He maps to have all favours and is coming out of the Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou stable, who are renowned for having their runners forward first-up.Dangers: Debutant 1. Windshadow looks a nice type, and he accelerated hard when asked for an effort to win a recent trial at Gosford. He is a key late-market watch but expect him to be in the finish. 5. Kiss The Outcast, who represents value, ran well first-up last prep in a high-rating event and has trialled well. 10. The Lions’ Gate looks to have come back improved and add 6. Never Fails to wider exotics.How to play it: Silentsar to win.Odds and Evens: Split.

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RACE 3 - 3.30PM: VINERY YEARLINGS HANDICAP- HEAT OF THE RISING STAR (1600m)

3. Taraashoq started equal $3.20 favourite last start at Canterbury 12 days ago and was honest in defeat, running third. Further, there has been a subsequent placegetter to confirm the form. Prior to that start, he won in style first-up at Gosford and ran some of the fastest closing 400m/200m splits of the day in 23.20/11.60 seconds. The gelding is suited back in distance, drops 5.5kg and will take some catching.Dangers: 2. Duke Of Buckingham hit the line hard to score at Wyong last start and produced one of his career peak figures. He maps to have all favours and will undoubtedly be in the finish again. 6. Knife’s Edge is racing well/consistently and will be running on. 1. Freedom Square had excuses last start and drops in grade. Add 8. The Maxinator to wider exotics.How to play it: Taraashoq to win.Odds and Evens: Split.

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RACE 4 - 4.05PM: BLUE POINT YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1600m)

Forget 8. Sweet Mercy’s last start where nothing went right in a proven form reference that has since produced two subsequent winners. Before that start, she raced well in similar grade in a high- rating event, and all key indicators suggest she is ready to peak. The relatively lightly raced filly has upside and is a consistent type. Additionally, she maps well and has past figures that can put her in the finish. Each-way.Dangers: 3. Ellenmac got the perfect run through last start at Rosehill, but she was honest running second and beat the rest easily. She is a real trier and barrier one suits. 1. Kouklara has come back improved, producing a career peak figure first-up after savaging the line to score last start. She will be fitter, and the rise in distance is a positive. 9. Thinking Rain has strong form lines, add 4. Chenin to trifectas and first fours.How to play it: Sweet Mercy each-way.Odds and Evens: Split.

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RACE 5 - 4.40PM: NEW TAB APP HANDICAP (2400m)

4. Just A Jedi wasn’t suited to the race shape last start at Kembla, and he was blocked at key stages throughout the straight, halting his momentum. Nonetheless, he still ran the fastest final 200m of the race. The five-year-old gets key factors in his favour here with his usual jockey Brenton Avdulla jumping back on, and the gelding has a strong record at the track. In addition, he has solid form lines for this, and can rate to win.Dangers: 14. Mist Of Battle, who represents value, is a lightly raced improver and is set to peak third-up over more distance. The three-year-old has gained race experience this prep, and his sectional profile says he can step again. 9. Bak Da Man had excuses 14 days ago at this track, and he gets a 4.5kg weight swing on 1. McGeehan who beat him last start. Add 12. Awesome Wonder to wider exotics.How to play it: Just A Jedi and Mist Of Battle both to win.Odds and Evens: Evens.

RACE 6 - 5.15PM: FUJITSU GENERAL HANDICAP (1000m)

4. Way To The Stars was brave in defeat last start in stronger grade after having the bias against him, and he stuck on well for fourth at Kembla Grange. Prior to that start, he won at this track/distance and gets a similar set-up here. The gelding who profiles well for this is rock-hard fit, maps well and will give a sight.Dangers: 9. Italian Informant had excuses first-up at Hawkesbury, and he hit the line hard, running the fastest final 200m split of the meeting in 11.24. He will be fitter for that, a senior rider goes on and look for him to have the last shot. 1. With Your Blessing knuckled down to score first-up at Newcastle and won well. He has multiple winning figures for this, and the step-up in distance is ideal second-up. Add 7. Vegas Raider and 10. Stariks to trifectas and first fours.How to play it: Way To The Stars to win.Odds and Evens: Split.

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RACE 7 - 5.50PM: FURPHY HANDICAP (1300m)

11. Marillier started a $4.50 favourite at this track/distance last start and was brave in defeat. The three-year-old sat outside the leader at a fast pace and tried hard to the line running fourth. Moreover, that race rated highly relative to the day, and other on-pace runners faded, which added more merit to her performance. The filly is coming out of time/sectional merit races this prep and is in career-best form. In addition, she is rock-hard fit, maps to be able to cross from the tricky draw and will take some catching.Dangers: 9. Ponca broke through for her maiden win at Gosford last start, and her sectional profile suggests she can improve again up in distance. 2. Charity Spirit profiles well for this and brings strong form lines. She is suited on the dry track, maps to have all favours, can sprint fresh and rate to win. 5. Hellavadancer went out on a peak figure before spelling last prep and has trialled well enough for this.How to play it: Marillier to win.Odds and Evens: Odds.

Best Bet: Marillier (R7 No.11)Next best: Silentsar (R2 No.4)Best value: Just a Jedi and Mist of Battle (R5 Nos. 4 and 14)

Supplied by Racing NSWFull form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au.

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