Entertainment football club: shortsellers bet against the shares of Borussia Dortmund

13:00  21 october  2020
13:00  21 october  2020 Source:   handelsblatt.com

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With the increasing number of corona cases, hedge funds are also expanding their bets against the Bundesliga runner-up. What that means for investors.

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The clubs in the Bundesliga are facing a hard autumn. In view of the increasing number of corona cases , the fans are banned from the stadiums again, and the infections are also increasing among the players. Runner-up Borussia Dortmund (BVB) is now even targeted by so-called shortsellers: At least three hedge funds are betting on falling prices for the Bundesliga club's shares. This is evident from , the current data in the Federal Gazette .

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The corona crisis, in the course of which gaming operations were temporarily suspended, tore a huge hole in the Dortmund cash register. BVB showed a minus of almost 44 million from for the 2019/2020 financial year. For the current season he expects a loss of between 70 and 75 million euros, according to the current annual report.

In an interview with ZDF last Saturday, BVB boss Joachim Watzke calculated what the increased corona numbers alone for the next Bundesliga home game against FC Schalke 04 and the European Cup game at home against Zenit Sankt Petersburg mean for the club: “We have a huge cost structure and we have to make money at some point. That was another setback that we had to play without an audience. Schalke will cost us a million, Saint Petersburg the same. “

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But there is currently no end to the restriction in sight - which has made BVB a target for shortsellers. These bet with short sales on falling prices . To do this, they borrow shares in the company concerned for a fee from banks or other providers and then sell the papers.

If the price falls as expected, you can buy back the same shares at a lower price and return them to the lender. The difference is the profit.

This is how three hedge funds sold 2.12 percent of the freely tradable shares short. On September 27, the rate was still at zero percent. The actual current short sale rate may be even higher. This is because a hedge fund's short bet is only published in the Federal Gazette if it is above the reportable threshold of 0.5 percent.

At the moment, the hedge fund's calculations seem to be paying off: while they are expanding their bets on falling prices, BVB shares continue to decline.

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On Tuesday, the papers closed at 4.394 euros - at the level of the low in the Corona crash in mid-March. Compared to its annual high of EUR 9.50 in February, the share has lost 53.7 percent in value.

trading volume as high as in March

The high daily trading volume of BVB titles is also striking. High trading volumes are often a sign that institutional investors are active. Last week, for the first time since the Corona crash, over a million BVB shares were traded per day. For comparison: at the beginning of September the volume was at times below 100,000 shares per day.

At BVB you keep a close eye on developments. The managing director responsible for finances Thomas Treß sees no cause for concern. "Due to their cumulative amount, we are currently rather uncritical about the three short positions that are currently built up," explains Treß. "In our opinion, these are positions that were built up against the background of the volatile price development as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic."

Opportunity to join BVB shares?

For long-term investors, the bets of the shortseller do not have to be a sell signal. Trion Reid, analyst at the private bank Berenberg, only confirmed his buy recommendation for BVB at the end of September and also stuck to his target price of EUR 8.50. Compared to the closing price on Tuesday, this is a premium of more than 80 percent. In this respect, the renewed sell-off of BVB shares and the associated short bets could even offer investors opportunities.

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Club Bayern Munich Borussia Dortmund RB Leipzig Borussia Mönchengladbach Bayer 04 Leverkusen TSG 1899 Hoffenheim VfL Wolfsburg SC Freiburg Eintracht Frankfurt Hertha BSC 1. FC Union Berlin FC Schalke 04 1.FSV Mainz 05 1. FC Köln FC Augsburg SV Werder Bremen Arminia

Borussia Dortmund will be looking to bounce back from a 4-3 loss to Bayer Leverkusen when they host Eintracht Frankfurt at their Signal-Iduna-Park on The title-chasing side are likely to stick to their attacking style of play against Eintracht Frankfurt, and we predict that they are going to get back on

investors should ask themselves the following questions before making a purchase: Will BVB disappear from the market? Or will football no longer have such a high priority after the end of the corona pandemic?

Anyone who answers both questions with "no" should keep an eye on BVB shares as well as other corona losers, advises stock exchange expert Stephan Heibel, who evaluates the weekly Dax Sentiment survey for Handelsblatt . He thinks it is possible that will lose the feared potential of the dreaded second corona wave in the coming weeks due to current figures: "Then stocks like BVB would also get prospects again."

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