Money Oil could hit $US80 on back of Syrian air strikes: JP Morgan

11:06  16 april  2018
11:06  16 april  2018 Source:   msn.com

70 civilians killed in Syria strikes - report

  70 civilians killed in Syria strikes - report Another 30 civilians were killed by Syrian regime airstrikes in the besieged area of eastern Ghouta on Saturday, a monitor has reported. It adds to the 40 reported dead by the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights on Friday.The deaths come as Syrian forces renew their attack on the area - specifically the opposition holdout of Douma.It was hoped a deal had been struck to allow fighters to withdraw from the area, which has been dubbed "hell on Earth" because of the conditions in which people live.

Close share panel. Related Topics. Syria air strikes . At a Pentagon briefing on Saturday, Lt Gen Kenneth McKenzie listed the three targets that had been struck , saying the attacks had "set the Syrian chemical weapons programme back years".

Oil prices have hit their highest since late 2014 and JP Morgan says Brent crude could go to US $ 80 (NZ9) a barrel as US-led strikes on 9 Syria threaten a new period of heightened Middle East conflict and raise the spectre of renewed US sanctions on Iran.

The air strikes in Syria could drive oil prices to over $US80 a barrel.© AP The air strikes in Syria could drive oil prices to over $US80 a barrel.

Oil prices have hit their highest since late 2014 and JP Morgan says Brent crude could go to $US80 a barrel as US-led strikes on Syria threaten a new period of heightened Middle East conflict and raise the spectre of renewed US sanctions on Iran.

The United States, Britain and France on Saturday morning launched military strikes against "chemical weapons-type targets" in Syria, in retaliation for a suspected poison gas attack in the town of Douma which killed at least 60 people on April 7.

Talk of the US-led strikes helped ramp up tension in oil markets leading into the weekend, where geopolitical tensions had already pushed prices higher. In the middle of last week Saudi Arabia intercepted three missiles over Riyadh, reportedly fired by Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen and targeting national oil company Saudi Aramco's assets.

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The US President has taken to Twitter to praise the air strikes in Syria and declare Mission Accomplished, the same words used on a banner then-president George W Bush spoke under six weeks into the years-long invasion of Iraq.

Iran and Russia's reactions to the Syria strikes , and whether the White House re-imposes sanctions on Iran, will determine oil 's future. "But we are likely to get a sell-off this week as the extent of the Syrian strikes have been muted and, in general, calmer nerves prevail in Washington."

In response, the international benchmark Brent crude oil price lifted 8.6 per cent last week to hit $US72.58 a barrel on Friday night, the highest since November 2014. Asian trade on Monday morning will offer the first glimpse of whether prices will be even higher.

Syria's oil industry has been devastated by war, making it a very minor part of global supply, JP Morgan oil strategist Abhishek Deshpande said. The country produces in the vicinity of about 25,000 to 30,000 barrels per day, against 350,000 bpd to 400,000 bpd two or three years ago. But oil markets remained sensitive to any developments in the oil-rich Middle East, Mr Deshpande said.

"The fact is that Syria is in the middle of a very high oil-producing region."

Analysts believe chances are rising that US President Donald Trump on May 12 will choose not to recertify his country's waiver on sanctions on Iran, which, alongside Russia, is backing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

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While Syrian television reported that the nation's air defenses had responded to the strikes , "none of our aircraft or missiles in this operation were successfully engaged" by President Bashar al-Assad's regime, said Lt. What happened the last time President Trump hit Syria ?

(April 16, 2018) Oil could hit $ US 80 on back of Syrian air strikes : JP Morgan - The Age (April 16, 2018) Russia mulls payments for oil in national currencies with Turkey and Iran - TASS (April 7, 2018) India plans to nearly double oil imports from Iran: Sources - India Times (April 6, 2018)

Further sanctions anticipated

"The suspected chemical weapons attack in Syria has heightened the chance that the US will impose further sanctions on Russia and reimpose them on Iran," Capital Economics commodities economists warned clients.

The Trump administration on April 7 imposed new sanctions on seven of Russia's richest men and 17 top government officials in the latest effort to punish President Vladimir Putin's inner circle for interference in the 2016 election and other Russian aggressions.

Mr Deshpande agreed that reinstated Iranian sanctions next month were a risk for markets, albeit one that was likely already largely priced in by markets and so would only add $US2 to $US5 to oil prices. The greater risk, he said, was that Europe also reimposed sanctions alongside the US, a scenario that would push crude "at least towards $US80, if not more".

While "definitely not a good thing" for markets already struggling with an array challenges, a 10 per cent climb in crude this year and a 25 per cent rise year-on-year "isn't the kind of stuff that qualifies as an oil shock by any standard", JP Morgan head of cross-asset strategy John Normand said.

UN chief urges restraint after strikes on Syria

  UN chief urges restraint after strikes on Syria UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Saturday called for restraint and for countries to avoid any acts that could escalate the situation in Syria after the United States, France and Britain carried out strikes.Guterres delayed a planned trip to Saudi Arabia to deal with the aftermath of the military action.

While Syrian air defenses did fire at some U . S . aircraft or missiles, Mattis This time our allies and we have struck harder,” the Marine general said, noting that tonight’s strikes had hit three targets Emily Goldberg, Jacqueline Klimas, Wesley Morgan and Nahal Toosi contributed to this report.

Syrian state television said on Sunday an Israeli air strike had hit a military post in the city of Misyaf in Syria ’s Hama province but caused only material damage. The deal brings the area back under government control and lets Syrian army brigades return to where they were stationed before Syria ’s

Another leg higher to $US80 or higher in crude prices would, however, "prevent risky markets from making the gains they deserve to make in the second quarter," Mr Norman said.

"Whilst the risks to oil supply from possible sanctions on Iran or Russia and from damage to oil infrastructure are significant, we still expect the market to be in surplus this year and the recent surge in prices is only likely to incentivise further increases in drilling rigs and output, especially in the US," the Capital Economics team said.

Mr Deshpande, however, doubted that US shale would be able to respond sufficiently to fill the shortfall in supply, while OPEC countries would be "slow to respond". That would see oil prices "remaining higher towards the end of the year".

Nearly 500,000 have been killed in the long-running Syrian conflict, while the Yemen civil war has left an estimated 10,000 dead since it began in 2015.

Syria probe mission on hold amid security fears .
The world's chemical arms watchdog froze its probe into an alleged chemical attack near Damascus Wednesday, demanding "unhindered access" after a United Nations reconnaissance mission came under fire. Four days after reaching the Syrian capital, international inspectors had yet to begin their field work in Douma, where dozens were killed in a suspected gas attack widely blamed on President Bashar al-Assad's forces.The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons said its fact-finding mission (FFM) would be forced to stay put in Damascus if its safety was not guaranteed.

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