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Offbeat Growth, Public Expenditures, Reforms: How does the Government intend to restore finances in 5 years

15:05  09 april  2021
15:05  09 april  2021 Source:   lejdd.fr

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Pour ramener le pays dans le giron des règles européennes sur le déficit, le gouvernement présente un programme de stabilité budgétaire. Il mise ainsi sur une baisse des dépenses publiques et sur la poursuite des réformes structurelles. © SIPA

to bring the country into the brief of the European rules on the deficit, the government presents a program of budget stability. It thus put down a decline in public spending and on the pursuit of structural reforms.

Return under the 3% public deficit bar in 2027. Next week, France must formally submit to the European Commission its budget program. The Ministry of Finance shared its projections at the High Public Finance Council. Once the crisis is past, the government is five years old to restore public finances. The objective is to pass the deficit below 3% in 2027, in accordance with the European pre-crisis budget rules. From the very admission of the ministry, this "ambitious but credible" plan will go through "significant efforts" but no austerity.

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an overlooking economy. with the Covid-19 health crisis, the French economy was put to the test. The public deficit in 2020 amounted to the record rate of 9.2%, a figure which is the consequence of the means mobilized to put in place various support measures. In 2020, the country experienced a historical recession with a contraction of 8.2% of its GDP, while the public debt ratio was soaring to reach 115.7% of GDP. Expenditures should continue as long as the epidemic is still expected, in particular, they must fuel the solidarity fund, partial activity or to help hospitals.

Return of growth. The Ministry of Economy hopes to see the country reconnect with growth, with a return of the activity to its preliminary crisis by the end of 2022. According to the projections of the Ministry of Finance, growth could reach 4 % in 2022 and 5% this year. For this, the proper application of the recovery plan will be paramount: the ministry tables on a stabilization of growth at 1.4% per year from 2025.

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video: the debate on the impact of the explosion of the public deficits On the private expense [Jérôme Creel] (Dailymotion)

Limit the rise in public spending. But the government also puts and especially on a decline in public spending. These increased at a rate of 1.4% per year on average over the 2010 decade. The objective is to limit this increase to 0.7% per year. A control also strict is a huge challenge but its modalities remain fuzzy. Bercy evokes choices to be done at the level of public policies, without giving more detail. In fact, this strategy aims to avoid any resort to a tax increase. Bruno The Mayor hammeses that the austerity policies have been the main mistake in managing the 2008 economic crisis.

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structural reforms. At the same time, Bruno The Mayor seems to rely on the continuation of certain reforms put into sleep by the sanitary crisis. Thus, pension reform as well as unemployment insurance should find a place of choice in the government agenda.

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A rule listed in the law. To keep these objectives, Bercy pleads for the establishment of a five-year multiannual expenditure rule. This could be introduced in the context of the future proposal for organic law on the management of public finances, scope by the President of the Committee on Finance of the National Assembly, Eric Woerth, and the Rapporteur General of the Budget, Laurent Saint -Martin. The Ministry even pletes for a "constitutional value" rule and therefore binding.

The prospect of a new mandate? Some observers remark that the department draws up a plan for five years ... a few months from the end of the mandate of Emmanuel Macron. This budget program would therefore act as an economic agenda for the President in case of re-election. The goal is above all to reassure the European Commission on the efforts of France is ready to consent. These projections remain of course fragile because suspended from the evolutions of the sanitary crisis. But the line displayed by the government is indeed the release of the famous "although it costs" and the return to a form of budgetary rigor as soon as the epidemic of Covid-19 has been defeated.

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