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Sport Who Does History Tell Us Will Win This Year's Melbourne Cup?

06:51  01 november  2021
06:51  01 november  2021 Source:   sportingnews.com

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24 horses, 3200m, formlines from all over the place - trying to find the Melbourne Cup winner can be pretty tough.

However, with 160 races of history to draw on, there's plenty of data to help guide your selections.

Whether it's saddlecloth number, barrier or jockey, we've got you covered for all the stats.

Saddlecloth number

With the Cup being run under handicap conditions, the higher rated, more mature horses tend to carry more weight and are therefore higher up the order.

Last year's winner Twilight Payment is in saddecloth one this year, while hot favourite Incentivise, is in number two.

Throughout the history of the race, two saddecloths - 4 and 12 - have won 11 times.

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This year, they belong to Ocean Billy and Knights Order respectively.

Number one has has claimed the race 10 times.

The worst performed saddlecloth, with just one win, is 18 - Port Guillaume.

Barrier

The gate from which a horse jumps can make or break their race.

Since they were introduced in 1924, barrier five has been most successful, with eight wins - most recently in 2013 with Fiorente.

Next best is barrier 11 with seven wins.

The Chosen One will jump from barrier five on Tuesday, Persan will start in barrier 11, while Sir Lucan will be hoping to become the first horse to win from barrier 18.

Gender

Male horses are overwhelmingly more successful over the Flemington two miles.

Just 13 times has a mare been first to greet the judge in the Melbourne Cup and Makybe Diva accounted for three of them.

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Four mares will start in 2021 - Verry Elleegant, Miami Bound, She's Ideel and Tralee Rose.

Jockeys

Three jockeys in action this year each have three Melbourne Cups to their names.

Damien Oliver (Delphi), Kerrin McEvoy (Grand Promenade) and Glen Boss (Sir Lucan) will be hoping to make it four.

Trainers

While they've both got a long way to go to match the efforts of Bart Cummings who won 12, Joseph O'Brien and Robert Hickmott are the most credentialed current trainers.

Irishman O'Brien won with Twilight Payment last year and he'll be saddling up again on Tuesday, while he also trained 2017 winner Rekindling.

Pondus trainer Hickmott has won the Cup with Green Moon in 2012 and Almandin in 2016.

Melbourne Cup © Provided by Sporting News Melbourne Cup

Weight

Last year's winner Twilight Payment will carry 58kg this year and history tells us it will be a tough task to go back-to-back.

54-55kg appears to be the sweet spot where most winners have sat over the years.

Since Black And Gold won the Cup with 57kg in 1977, Makybe Diva (58kg) is the only horse to have carried 57kg or more to a win.

Incentivise has been allocated 57kg by the stewards this year.

Favourites

32 times the shortest-priced runner has won the Cup, with Fiorente in 2013 the last one the punters cheered home.

Incentivise, currently at $2.80 will jump favourite in 2021, among the shortest odds for quite some time.

Phar Lap won in 1930 at 8/11, while Revenue (7/4 in 1901) and Archer (2/1 in 1862) were similarly well backed when they won.

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