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However, investors should also look beyond the next 12 months to a ‘decade of transformation’ where new winners Over the 2020 s, investors will also face a world transformed. Overall, the top longer-term investment themes highlighted in the Year Ahead report are digital transformation, genetic
Labour- market economists like David Blanchflower and David Bell of Stirling University argue that unemployment needs to fall towards 2% before wages start Nouriel Roubini, who can claim to be one of the few economists to forecast the last crash, also nominates 2020 . That’s not much time to prepare .
- The 2020 U.S. presidential election is top of mind for investors wondering how it might impact their portfolios, according to UBS's Year Ahead 2020 report.
- Generally, national elections don't substantially affect investors. But, the U.S. election is an exception to that rule, said Mike Ryan, UBS chief investment strategist for Wealth Management Americas.
- Here are six key themes that investors should watch in the lead-up to the election in 2020, according to UBS.
Heading into 2020, the U.S. presidential election is top of mind for investors asking how it might impact their portfolios.
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Still, says Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a bipartisan, nonprofit organization, it’s essential that Washington politicians begin a conversation “I give Congressman Larson a lot of credit,” she says . “He’s been working on this issue for a long time.
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While national elections generally don't substantially affect global investors, the U.S. election "is an exception to that rule," said Mike Ryan, UBS chief investment strategist for Wealth Management Americas, at a press event Tuesday.
That's because the U.S. makes up roughly 55% of the MSCI All Country World index, the U.S. Treasury bond yield is a benchmark for global financial assets, and the U.S. dollar is involved in 88% of all currency transactions, according to UBS.
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Investors shouldn't ignore the risk related to the Italian election , says UBS . Companies with strong balance sheets, because they would suffer less should interest rates spike after a political shock. On the flip-side, the UBS strategists singled out a trio of stocks to avoid ahead of the vote, due to their
That said , tempo was the missing ingredient. That said , ultimate progress was little. The Dow was one of the more substantial movers with a market consistent gap higher on the open followed by retreat through active US trade. What fundamental themes should you follow next week?
U.S. stocks could face higher volatility leading up to the election, UBS said. And some individual sectors, including technology, energy, financials, and healthcare, could suffer from price swings.
That means that investors both in the U.S. and abroad should pay attention in the run-up to the election and monitor the debates for a number of key issues, the bank said.
Here are six key themes that UBS says investors should be watching in the next year leading up to the 2020 election.
1. Corporate taxes
If a Democratic candidate prevails in 2020, there could be sweeping changes to corporate taxes, according to UBS. A 28% corporate tax rate, like the one proposed by former Vice President Joe Biden, would lower S&P 500 earnings by 3% to 4%, UBS estimates.
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The results reveal a rich mosaic of potential shifts in occupations in the years ahead , with important implications for workforce skills and wages. Activities most susceptible to automation include physical ones in predictable environments, such as operating machinery and preparing fast food.
Senator Elizabeth Warren's plans would lower earnings by about 7%, the bank said.
But, if Trump wins a second term, corporate tax rates would likely remain the same. Lower corporate taxes from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017 boosted S&P 500 earnings by nearly 10%, UBS said.
2. Trade policy
The conflict between the U.S. and China has been a huge market mover over the last year. While there are signs that a phase-one deal could be coming soon, investors should still watch out for further trade talks, UBS says.
If Trump is reelected in 2020, he "could become more adversarial with China," UBS said.
On the flip side, it seems that a Democratic president would "be unlikely to adopt a more conciliatory approach," UBS said.
3. Technology regulation
Investors should be prepared for greater scrutiny of big tech, UBS said. This is a big deal as technology looms large in the S&P 500, making up 16% of market value.
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If President Trump wins reelection, tech giants could face scrutiny from antitrust regulators in addition to the review underway by the Department of Justice, UBS said.
And, a Democratic president would also spell trouble for big tech. Warren has released a plan to break up the biggest tech companies, and Biden has supported further investigation. Discussions on the topic could "exacerbate volatility" at the U.S. tech giants, UBS said.
4. Environmental legislation
President Trump has loosened environmental regulations, but if a Democrat wins in 2020, they would "almost certainly retighten them," according to UBS.
That could put pressure on the carbon-based energy sector, UBS said. It could also boost companies connected to clean energy, clean air, carbon reduction, and energy efficiency, according to UBS.
If President Trump is reelected, UBS thinks he might push to make the personal tax cuts from his Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017 permanent.
But under a Democratic president, income tax rates for the wealthy would likely increase, UBS said, as the federal minimum wage and Social Security payments would also probably rise.
To hedge against this, UBS recommends adding exposure to consumer spending instead of business spending in 2020.
6. Healthcare reform
Healthcare is a huge debate topic in the lead-up to the 2020 election. President Trump has weakened the Affordable Care Act, but a Democratic president would likely strengthen it.
If a Democrat wins, UBS thinks "a move toward greater provision of public healthcare is likely." In addition, there could be some form of restriction on how much drug companies can charge for medication. This would hurt the healthcare sector and pharmaceutical industry, UBS said.
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