World: The photo that reveals who got the better of the US-China trade truce - - PressFrom - Australia
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World The photo that reveals who got the better of the US-China trade truce

04:55  14 october  2019
04:55  14 october  2019 Source:   theage.com.au

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WASHINGTON — President Trump will meet with China ’s top trade envoy at the White House Friday afternoon amid growing expectations that the United States could soon announce a trade truce that would help defuse tensions with China .

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer met Vice Premier Liu He and other Chinese officials. Although many of the blacklisted entities are government security bureaus, the eight companies named include some of China 's leaders in artificial intelligence.

a group of people sitting at a table: Secretary Steven Mnuchin and US Trade rep Robert Lighthizer with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and the Chinese delegation at a working dinner during the 13th round of trade negotiations.© Official White House photo by Keegan Barber Secretary Steven Mnuchin and US Trade rep Robert Lighthizer with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and the Chinese delegation at a working dinner during the 13th round of trade negotiations. The US Treasury Department tweeted a revealing picture from a dinner between the US and Chinese trade delegations on Friday. The Chinese are beaming; the Americans look glum.

That picture, perhaps conveys a better sense of the outcome of the negotiations than US President Donald Trump’s tweet that ‘’the deal I just made with China is, by far, the greatest and biggest deal ever made for our Great Patriot Farmers in the history of our country.’’

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The United States emphasized the 90-day window it has set for trade talks, while China made no mention of it. But China ’s willingness to reach any deal for purchases while considerable tariffs remain in place suggested that Beijing officials, as well as Mr. Trump, were genuinely eager for a truce .

Which party – the United States or China – is winning the trade war? That is the case before us today. We first consult the jury – the stock market. In the absence of a trade truce , virtually all Chinese exports – some 0 billion worth – will soon come under the ban.

Actually, he’s probably not wrong there. China’s agreement to, over the next two years, scale up to purchases of $US40 billion to $US50 billion ($A60 billion to $A74 billion) a year of agricultural products – about twice their historical level – is a very big deal if it eventuates.

It is however, not the first time similar deals have been announced and proclaimed as ''the biggest ever'' by Trump.

China needs to buy soy beans and protein from somewhere, particularly as it has a pork crisis after a deadly swine flu epidemic. Not only has the deal been on the table since the trade conflict began to develop – but it is doubtful, and even Trump expressed the doubt, that the US could actually produce that amount of product.

a man sitting on a bed: China has agreed to buy $US40 billion to $US50 billion a year of soy beans from the US.© AP China has agreed to buy $US40 billion to $US50 billion a year of soy beans from the US.

The commitment to agricultural purchases by China, and a US agreement not to proceed with a planned increase in the tariffs on $US250 billion ($A370 billion) of China’s exports that had been scheduled for this week, are the only concrete outcomes from last week’s trade talks.

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Good things are happening at China Trade Talk Meeting. Warmer feelings than in recent past, more like the Old Days. Before departing the White House for a rally, the president said that the specifics of the deal are being finalized and suggested that U . S . farmers-- who took a hit from China 's punitive

“We had a very, very good negotiation with China. They’ll be speaking a little bit later, but they’re basically “We all know the next round of tariffs is going to hurt the United States as much or more than “The prospect of US - China trade truce that results in the suspension of further planned tariffs

And even they are subject to a final deal being agreed next month, probably at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum in Chile next month.

China also made some vague promises to be more transparent about its interventions in currency markets and opening up access to its financial services sector (which it has already been doing) but the difficult and substantive issues, most notably China’s subsidies to state-owned enterprises, weren’t addressed.

The US thought it could coerce China into an agreement by ravaging its economy with the tariffs.

There are tariffs on about $US360 billion ($A530 billion) of China’s exports to the US, with tariffs on another $US160 billion ($A235 billion) announced but yet to be implemented. The fate of that final tranche, which was deferred until December 15 to avoid impacting US consumers in the lead-up to Christmas, appears to remain open.

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WASHINGTON — President Trump delayed his own deadline to increase tariffs on Chinese goods on Sunday as his administration continues a monthslong effort to persuade Beijing to make significant structural changes to its economy that have so far proved elusive.

US President Donald Trump sounded an optimistic note at the end of the first day of US - China trade talks in Washington DC. "I think China's looking for a trade truce ," said Einar Tangen, a former economic adviser to the Chinese government. "At this point, it's not clear that there will ever be any

China has been hurt by the trade war. Its economic growth has slowed significantly, with some analysts even tipping that it will slide below 6 per cent when its September GDP numbers are released on Friday.

The US has, however, also suffered (self-inflicted) harm.

Its farm sector is in recession despite $US28 billion ($A41 billion) of state-provided aid and its manufacturing sector in shrinking. Business investment has dried up and employment growth has slowed, as has the wider economy despite Federal Reserve rate cuts and a blow-out in the US federal budget deficit to almost $US1 trillion ($A1.5 trillion).

With Trump battling the impeachment investigation and next year’s presidential election now very visible on the horizon, the trade war and its impact on a slowing US economy have become part of the political calculus. It is damaging Trump in his political heartlands and undermining any credibility his administration’s economic policies might have.

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BUENOS AIRES — The United States and China called a truce in their trade war on Saturday after President “ We have a tremendous trade imbalance, but we ’re going to get that straightened out,” he said There were photos of the president and the first lady, Melania Trump, seated at the long table

As the existing tariffs remain in place, with the possibility that more goods might be covered by tariffs in mid-December, the trade war will continue to damage the US and Chinese economies and undermine global growth.

Last week’s talks have therefore at least temporarily deferred an escalation of the conflict but not resolved it.

It is worth noting that the US and China have agreed deals in the past. Trump and Xi Jinping agreed a deal over dinner in Buenos Aires last December. Trump described the deal, which also involved huge purchases of US agricultural products, as ‘’incredible.’’ By May it had been forgotten and hostilities were resumed.

In June, in Osaka in Japan (this time after a lunch) Trump announced that China would buy ‘’a tremendous amount’’ of food and agricultural products from the US as part of a truce he had agreed with Xi Jinping. That time the truce lasted a month, at best.

This time it might be different because of the US political context.

The administration would presumably not want to take any further action to undermine US growth heading into an election campaign.  By now it must have realised China isn’t going to suddenly accede to the core US demands and demolish the structure of its centrally-planned economy and relinquish its economic ambitions.

The Chinese delegates at Friday’s dinner were smiling, probably because they gave up nothing that they haven’t always been prepared to concede and nothing that inhibits China’s ability to pursue its economic and geopolitical aspirations.

The US representative were sombre, perhaps because they finally realised they had consistently under-estimated China’s resolve and the efficacy of the trade war. For this political cycle, at least, time has just about run out on their attempt to stymie the growth of a serious challenger to US economic and geopolitical dominance.

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