World Trump May Win Electoral College, Lose Popular Vote Again, 2016 Poll Comparison Shows
Biden Holds 4-Point Lead Over Trump in Arizona, Where 62 Percent of Those Polled Plan to Vote by Mail
Biden's lead over Trump has gained 1 point since a similar poll was conducted in March by Monmouth University.Biden's lead among polled voters in the battleground state comes less than 50 days before November 3's presidential election, in which more than half—about 62 percent—of respondents told pollsters they plan to vote by mail and 34 percent said they plan to vote in person, either before or on Election Day.
Former Vice President Joe Biden's solid lead over President Donald Trump has been larger than that of Hillary Clinton's for nearly his entire 2020 presidential campaign. But poll comparisons show the Electoral College—and not the popular vote—remains a very strong Trump path to victory once again.
Dems Leading GOP Counterparts in North Carolina, Arizona and Maine Senate Races, Poll Says
A new New York Times/Sienna College poll shows incumbent GOP Senators in three states at risk of losing in the November 3 election. In Arizona, Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly currently leads Republican candidate Martha McSally by eight points. According to the poll, 50 percent of respondents said they'd vote for Kelly if the election were held today, while 42 percent sided with McSally. The poll surveyed 653 likely voters in Arizona from September 10 to September 15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
Biden currently leads Trump by 6.5 points according to an aggregate of national polls just weeks before Election Day. The Democratic nominee has maintained a sizable lead over the president since mid-May. Comparisons between 2020 and 2016 September polls show Biden up eight points compared to Clinton's corresponding five-point lead four years ago. But pollsters are warning overconfident Democrats that Clinton was seven points up on Trump just three weeks before losing in 2016, and a recent surge of Trump support among white, working-class voters could once again plot his path to victory through the Electoral College.
Undecided voters in states like Wisconsin ultimately voted for Trump in 2016—one of many "missed" factors pollsters say they've corrected after his surprise win. Nonetheless, national polls are predicting Biden to easily win over the Electoral College.
To achieve racial justice, America’s broken democracy must be fixed
Why 30 Black- and brown-led organizations are coming together to demand bold democracy reform.But Mitchell’s sense of the problem has changed over the years. He used to think if he could just mobilize enough support and change enough minds, that would be enough to make progress on the issues that mattered most to his community. Now he knows that was wrong. If you want to change the outcomes the political system produces, you need to change the political system itself.
Many 2016 polls in battleground states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania relied on skewed data and understated Trump's support while overrepresenting college graduates. If those numbers are adjusted to reflect who really turned out on Election Day four years ago, Biden's seemingly clear path to victory becomes far less apparent.
Surveys conducted in September by Marquette Law School and The Wall Street Journal/NBC News show Biden with a four-point lead over Trump in Wisconsin. But those same polls showed Clinton with a 6.5-point lead in 2016—a state Trump went on to win by less than one point. As the Journal noted Saturday, this reflects a 7.2-point miss by pollsters.
If this adjustment is applied today, Biden's current 6.6-point advantage actually turns into a narrow Trump lead in Wisconsin.
Biden's lead in Pennsylvania and Michigan today is cut in half when polling oversights such as a failure to count white Americans without college degrees is factored in to current projections. Trump won both states in 2016, despite trailing in all available polls by several percentage points. Additionally, 2016 pollsters said they failed to account for third-party voters and dejected supporters of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who ultimately sided with Trump at a staggering rate in November 2016.
Poll Shows Biden Tied With Trump in Georgia—A State Democrats Haven't Won Since 1992
Both presidential candidates were backed by 47 percent of the Southern state's voters, while 4 percent said they were still undecided.A new poll carried out by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the University of Georgia's School of Public and International Affairs showed Biden with the backing of 47 percent of Georgians, while Trump was also supported by 47 percent. An additional 1 percent of voters said they planned to back Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen, while 4 percent said they remained undecided.
Figures released by the independent Cook Political Report Friday revealed how five key demographics including white, non-college graduates and Hispanics could potentially see Trump winning the Electoral College but losing the popular vote by 5 million.
Both the Trump and Biden campaigns have honed in on the electoral votes of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Priorities USA, a pro-Democrat group, designated Pennsylvania as the tipping point in the 2020 Electoral College race—a distinction long held by Florida. Biden has made eight in-person trips to Pennsylvania and told supporters there last week it's "personal" for him to win his native state.
Reports emerged last week that the Trump campaign is planning to ask Republican leaders in battleground states to bypass the popular vote, and to instead handpick electors to cast Electoral College votes in favor of the president.
The Wall Street Journal/NBC News polls released this month show Trump's support among white voters without college degrees is at about 60 percent—a six-point increase from 2016. Trump's support among Hispanics has increased by nine points—18 to 27—compared to four years ago. The president, however, has failed to gain support among women voters. September surveys show Biden has the support of 57 percent of U.S. women, five points higher than Clinton, who would have become the country's first female president had she gone on to win.
Clinton won the national popular vote by more than two percentage points—48 percent to 45.9 percent—but lost the Electoral College by 74 votes—306 to 232—to the surprise of most political pundits. Aside from one week in early August, Biden's comparative lead over Trump has remained larger than that of Clinton's.
The Election That Could Break America
If the vote is close, Donald Trump could easily throw the election into chaos and subvert the result. Who will stop him?There is a cohort of close observers of our presidential elections, scholars and lawyers and political strategists, who find themselves in the uneasy position of intelligence analysts in the months before 9/11. As November 3 approaches, their screens are blinking red, alight with warnings that the political system does not know how to absorb. They see the obvious signs that we all see, but they also know subtle things that most of us do not. Something dangerous has hove into view, and the nation is lurching into its path.
A Gallup survey of American voters found a majority (61 percent) support abolishing the Electoral College altogether.
Newsweek reached out to both the Biden and Trump campaigns Saturday morning for additional remarks.
Video: Think The Electoral College Is Unfair to Democrats? Try The Senate. | FiveThirtyEight (ABC News)
What the Supreme Court Fight Means for the Senate Majority .
Democrats could have an easier time taking back the chamber if they focus voters’ attention on the Court’s impact on health care.The reason: The confirmation fight is likely to further weaken the position of endangered Republican senators in Colorado, Maine, and Arizona—states where polls show that a solid majority of voters support legal abortion. But even if Democrats flip all three, they will still likely need to win one more seat to take the majority. And in the next tier of states where they could possibly flip a seat, the politics of abortion will make that more difficult.