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World New national polls are disastrous for Trump — and state polls aren’t much better

21:51  11 october  2020
21:51  11 october  2020 Source:   vox.com

With One Month to the Election, Trump's Faring Worse Than He Was in 2016 Against Clinton

  With One Month to the Election, Trump's Faring Worse Than He Was in 2016 Against Clinton President Donald Trump has been accustomed to going into an election trailing his Democratic rival in polls and yet coming out victorious. But this time around, the margin is even greater and experts say the polls are more accurate.President Donald Trump has been accustomed to going into an election trailing his Democratic rival in polls and still coming out victorious. But this time around, the margin is even greater and the polls may be more accurate.

New battleground- state polls from Baldwin Wallace University showed Biden beating Trump in both Well , the polls could tighten over the final weeks of the race, as undecided voters make up their minds, and Kelly Loeffler has tested positive for the coronavirus. New national polls are disastrous for

Two veteran polling experts, one Democrat and one Republican, analyze the most recent surveys. To get a better idea of what the latest polling portends for the election, and whether Trump ’s illness is likely to change things much , I spoke On Election Day, Reagan carried forty-four states and won the popular vote by almost ten points. The numbers from the new national polls support Hart’s analysis.

With millions of votes already cast and just three weeks until Election Day, President Donald Trump does not appear to be making up ground in his reelection race against Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

Donald Trump standing in front of a building: President Donald Trump isn’t catching up with Democratic nominee Joe Biden, according to new 2020 election polls. © Samuel Corum/Getty Images President Donald Trump isn’t catching up with Democratic nominee Joe Biden, according to new 2020 election polls.

An ABC News/Washington Post national poll released Sunday found Biden leading Trump by 12 percent points, 54 percent to 42 percent, with the Libertarian and Green Party candidates together attracting just 3 percent of likely voters. The poll was conducted entirely after Trump’s October 5 discharge from Walter Reed Medical Center, where he was treated for Covid-19. It shows Biden doubling his lead from the last ABC/Post poll, which found Biden up 6 percentage points in late September.

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But most of these new state polls take a simple approach: Contact the members of a large online panel, then weight those respondents by standard census Over the long run, these polls might make up a smaller share of the battleground polling than they have so far. But it seems inevitable that new

A series of swing- state polls shows Biden tied or leading in states that Trump won comfortably in 2016. But these are not the issues where Trump is hurting the most in recent polls . Roughly half of the country approves of the president’s handling of the economy, and the New York Times/Siena poll

These days, a 12 percentage point national lead for Biden is largely in line with overall polling averages. FiveThirtyEight gives the Democratic candidate a 10.4 percentage point average lead, while Real Clear Politics puts Biden’s average lead at 9.8 percentage points.

And the ABC/Washington Post results align with other recent polls as well. The University of Southern California’s tracking poll also posted new findings on Sunday and found Biden up 12 percentage points. A massive Pew Research Center poll, which surveyed more than 10,500 voters, showed a 10 percentage point lead for Biden earlier this week.

This has been a steady race, with Biden holding a meaningful lead throughout the campaign — a marked difference from 2016, when the polls were much more volatile. Trump needs good news if he’s going to turn his campaign around. He’s not getting it.

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As polls show President Trump significantly trailing his rival, Joseph R. Biden Jr., his campaign is spending heavily in states , like Ohio, that it had hoped Mr. Trump has been consistently unpopular as president with a majority of Americans; his advisers have long seen his effort to win a new term as

In the new poll , 51% of registered voters nationwide back Biden, while 46% say they prefer Trump , while in the battlegrounds, 52% favor Trump and 45 Most voters, 54%, say they trust the President to better handle the nation 's economy, while 42% say they prefer Biden. An earlier release from the

Trump continues to poll poorly in key swing states

All of these polls were conducted nationally, and, of course, presidential elections are not won by the national popular vote. However, Trump hasn’t made much progress in the battleground states he will need to win to secure 270 votes in the Electoral College, either.

Fresh CBS News polling, taken from October 6 to 9, found Biden leading Trump by 6 percentage points in Michigan and tied in Iowa, both states that Trump won in 2016. The new polling also showed Biden enjoying a 6 percentage point edge in Nevada, a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016 that Democrats want to hold in 2020. New polls from Baldwin Wallace University also reported Biden beating Trump in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (with a 5 percentage point lead in the former and a 7 percentage point lead in the latter).

If he can’t win at least one state in the Midwestern trifecta — Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin — that won him the White House in 2016, Trump effectively has no path to 270 Electoral College votes, barring the highly unlikely scenario that he is able to flip states considered safely Democratic on Election Night.

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Our national polling average on Thursday shows President Trump trailing by 10 percentage points When the good polling for Trump is still quite bad. Behind a day of dismal polling for the president. The president’s worst state polls showed Mr. Biden tied or ahead in states worth well over 400

CNN Poll of Polls : Biden maintains double-digit lead over Trump nationally , with coronavirus a top issue. The CNN Poll of Polls is an average of the five most recent non-partisan, live operator, national telephone surveys on the general election matchup between Biden and Trump among

In the most important swing states, the odds are against Trump right now, based on FiveThirtyEight’s polling average:

  • In Michigan, Biden is averaging an 8 percentage point lead over Trump
  • Biden enjoys an average lead of 7.3 percentage points in Pennsylvania
  • Biden is also leading Trump by 7.2 percentage points on average in Wisconsin

Two of the more Republican Midwestern states, Iowa and Ohio, are also drifting away from Trump after he won them by 8 percentage points or more in 2016:

  • Biden currently holds a 1 percentage point lead in the FiveThirtyEight polling average for Iowa
  • The former vice president is also ahead by an average of 0.7 percentage points in Ohio

Biden also leads Trump by 3 or 4 percentage points in both Arizona and Florida, two additional states Trump won in 2016 that Democrats don’t need to win to prevail in the Electoral College, but that would pad the margins of a Biden victory — making it harder for the president to challenge the results.

Trump, meanwhile, doesn’t appear to be in serious competition to win any of the states where Clinton triumphed in 2016. Minnesota and Nevada have been considered the most likely targets for any map expansion on Trump’s part, but Biden is leading by 9.2 percentage points in the former and 6.8 percentage points in the latter, per the FiveThirtyEight averages.

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Taking Biden’s strength in national and state polling together, FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 election forecast gives Biden 86 in 100 odds of winning the presidency. That is substantially higher than Clinton’s 71-percent chance on Election Day 2016.

Biden’s strong polls don’t mean he will win the presidency

Biden’s apparent advantage doesn’t mean Trump can’t win, as Real Clear Politics analyst Sean Trende emphasized on Twitter. Because of the Electoral College’s rightward lean, Trump could lose the popular vote by several percentage points and still win enough states (by holding onto Florida, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, for starters) to win a majority in the Electoral College.

How could that happen? Well, the polls could tighten over the final weeks of the race, as undecided voters make up their minds, and perhaps as Republicans skeptical of Trump ultimately decide to stick with their party. Pollsters could also be missing some Trump voters, leading them to underestimate his support as they did in critical states in the 2016 election.

If We Don't Win in Pennsylvania, 'We Are So Screwed,' Biden Insider Says

  If We Don't Win in Pennsylvania, 'We Are So Screwed,' Biden Insider Says With less than a month to go until Election Day, both presidential campaigns are amping up efforts in what appears to be the most important battleground state. Newsweek takes an inside look at the strategies of both candidates—and the impact of legal challenges on the voting process.What convinced "Basement Biden," as Trump mockingly refers to his opponent, to so dramatically reverse course—ironically, just before the president was forced by his COVID-19 diagnosis to pull back from the campaign trail?

In an interview with the New Yorker’s Isaac Chotiner, Trende pointed to Trump’s job approval — currently a few points higher (43.6 percent in the FiveThirtyEight average) than his average support in election polls (41.9 percent) — as one possible indicator of Trump’s ability to make up ground in the final weeks.

But, at this point, it seems fair to say everything would need to break right for Trump, and the polls would once again need to be significantly wrong, for the president to win another term. The New York Times has a feature that estimates what the 2020 result would be if the state polls are as far off as they were in 2016 and, even under that scenario, it still projects a Biden win.

Of course, when using polls to attempt to predict future events, it is important to never say never. The 2016 election was a searing reminder that events with a 1-in-4 or 1-in-6 chance of happening can, and do, in fact happen.

But with millions of people having already voted — and many others have already made up their minds — the polls suggest time may be running out for Trump to shake up the 2020 campaign.

The presidential election comes down to these 9 states .
Here's a look at the nine states that will likely decide who wins the presidential election. Florida With 29 electoral votes up for grabs, Florida is the largest of the traditional battlegrounds. Twenty years ago, it was the state that decided the presidential election between then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore. President Bush won the state by five points in his 2004 reelection. President Barack Obama carried the state by razor-thin margins in both 2008 and 2012. Then, four years ago, Trump narrowly edged out 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

usr: 1
This is interesting!