•   
  •   

World Biden looks very competitive in new Southern swing state polls

01:10  26 october  2020
01:10  26 october  2020 Source:   vox.com

Biden Wants to Transform America (Really)

  Biden Wants to Transform America (Really) He doesn’t talk like a revolutionary, but he won’t be satisfied with a placeholder presidency.Over the spring and summer, Biden inverted the historic template of the Democratic nominee. According to time-honored political logic, a candidate poses as a bleeding heart in the primary, only to retrace his or her steps back to the center in the general. During his time in his basement, by contrast, Biden’s ambitions for the presidency began to acquire a grandiosity that his intramural battle with Bernie Sanders hardly anticipated.

Joe Biden ’s campaign looks set to rest on elderly people and suburban women, two crucial demographics that Just nine days remain until Election Day and polling figures seem to suggest that Joe Biden is beating Donald Trump in two major demographics: suburban women and elderly people.

Polls in Florida, the über swing state , also tilted slightly toward Biden , though we didn’t have much in the way of high-quality polls here. Could traditionally ruby red Utah be competitive in 2020? A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that asked Americans what they thought of Biden and Trump

A set of new polls show Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with a narrow lead — or a tie — with President Donald Trump in the Southern states of Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas, a potentially promising sign for Biden’s odds of winning the White House.

Joe Biden wearing a suit and tie: Democratic presidential nominee prepares to speak at a drive in Pennsylvania rally on October 24, 2020. © Drew Angerer/Getty Images Democratic presidential nominee prepares to speak at a drive in Pennsylvania rally on October 24, 2020.

In this election cycle, political analysts consider Florida and North Carolina to be swing states — and Texas and Georgia to be possible swing states, as well. Considering that Trump won all of them in 2016 — including outstripping Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in Texas by 9 percentage points — the new polling speaks to the president’s vulnerabilities as Election Day swiftly approaches.

The presidential election comes down to these 9 states

  The presidential election comes down to these 9 states Here's a look at the nine states that will likely decide who wins the presidential election. Florida With 29 electoral votes up for grabs, Florida is the largest of the traditional battlegrounds. Twenty years ago, it was the state that decided the presidential election between then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore. President Bush won the state by five points in his 2004 reelection. President Barack Obama carried the state by razor-thin margins in both 2008 and 2012. Then, four years ago, Trump narrowly edged out 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

The new Quinnipiac poll shows Biden trailing Trump by only 1% in South Carolina. Joe Biden Johnny Louis/FilmMagic. While North Carolina is a swing state that has a Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, and went for But Harrison has turned out to be shockingly competitive in South Carolina.

2020 Presidential Election Polls . This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state . Use the sort to view the polls in different ways. Select a state name to see its presidential voting history. Select the link below each chart to see all the polling detail for that state .

The latest CBS News Battleground Tracker polls show Biden leading Trump 50 percent to 48 percent among likely voters in Florida; Biden over Trump in North Carolina 51 percent to 47 percent; and Biden tied with Trump 49-49 in Georgia.

The results are close enough that Trump could regain his advantage ahead of November 3, but it is striking to see Biden performing so well in states that Trump easily won before, and to see a Democratic candidate putting up big numbers in a region that has skewed Republican for decades.

Most worryingly for Trump, perhaps is that Biden garners more trust from voters on the top tier issue of handling the coronavirus pandemic. In Florida, Biden leads Trump 49 to 41 percent on the issue; in North Carolina he leads 50 to 39 percent; and in Georgia 48 to 41 percent.

4 winners and 5 losers from the last Biden-Trump debate

  4 winners and 5 losers from the last Biden-Trump debate Joe Biden was a winner — as was moderator Kristen Welker.The first debate was a chaotic disaster thanks to Trump’s constant interruptions; the second one didn’t happen because Trump refused to agree to debate virtually while he had Covid-19 (they had dueling town halls instead). This time around, better moderation and the handy use of a mute button allowed both candidates to express their thoughts — leading to a mix of actual substantive policy exchanges and less-than-coherent mudslinging about families and personal finance.

US election polls tracker: who is leading in the swing states ? Sign up for Fight to Vote – our weekly Trump had a four- state campaign day on Saturday, voting in Florida before staging rallies in North Today he’s speaking in New Hampshire – where the fivethirtyeight.com average puts Biden more

While Biden cast these announcements as a nod in the direction of Senator Bernie Sanders on key priorities Both sides plan to invest heavily in Minnesota as well — HMP is reserving .4 million in the state The state is home to four freshmen lawmakers who could face competitive reelection fights

CNN’s polling expert Harry Enten has argued this is bad news for Trump, since historical polling data suggests that in elections where there’s an issue that surpasses the economy in attention, then “whoever is most trusted most on the non-economic issue is likely to win the election.” And as Vox’s Roge Karma has written, while polls show the pandemic isn’t necessarily the top issue for Trump voters, surveys have found it is a key issue for the undecided voters who could swing all three states either toward Trump or Biden.

In Texas, things are looking up for Biden as well. A new Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler poll shows Biden edging out Trump 48 to 45 percent among likely voters.

Mark Owens, the political scientist at UT-Tyler who directed the poll, told the Dallas Morning News that he considered Texas a “tossup” because of shifting attitudes toward Trump. The Cook Political Report has rated the race “Lean Republican.”

Everything you need to know about election polls in 2020

  Everything you need to know about election polls in 2020 With less than two weeks until Election Day, Democratic nominee Joe Biden has about a 10 percentage point lead over President Donald Trump in an average of national polls. National polling in 2016 was about as accurate as any presidential election since 1968, even if Trump's upset victory shocked millions of Americans. Business Insider answered some of the most common polling-related questions for the 2020 election. Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

Biden has started to attend in-person, socially distant campaign events. Photo: JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images. Late in the afternoon on the last Monday in June, 430 Democrats, who had paid up to 0,000 each, clicked into a private, Texas-themed Zoom call organized by Joe Biden ’s campaign.

Just the fact that Biden was competitive in Washington state is an ominous sign for Sanders' movement. Both Biden and Sanders have stayed remarkably consistent in their messaging and presentation throughout the campaign. What has changed, though, are the circumstances around the

The number of Texas voters concerned with how Trump has handled the coronavirus appears to be growing, Owens found. In September, 32 percent of Texans said they had no confidence in Trump to keep communities safe from the pandemic — but in the latest poll, that number surged to 44 percent.

Most Texans preferred Trump over Biden on the economy, with 53 percent of likely voters saying they thought Trump would handle it better, and 46 percent feeling the same about Biden.

State polling should be taken with a grain of salt

Polling in battleground states is important — particularly given that the US’s presidential elections are determined by the electoral college, not a popular vote. And together, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas account for 98 of the 270 electoral college votes a candidate needs to win the White House.

But state polling also has significant limitations, and Biden’s standing in these states (as well as other more closely-watched swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania) should not be seen as a surefire sign of his victory in the overall election.

What Polls Say About Trump Vs. Biden in Key Swing States With Just 10 Days to the Election

  What Polls Say About Trump Vs. Biden in Key Swing States With Just 10 Days to the Election Newsweek analyzed recent polling data from nine of the battleground states deemed most essential to both Biden and Trump in their hopes to secure the presidency.Although more than 52 million Americans have already cast their vote early ahead of the election, many states don't reveal data showing which parties the voters belong to, providing little insight into how either candidate is currently doing.

Trump and Biden will deliver remarks in their respective home states . Chelsea Stahl / NBC News. But polls show his support among seniors is slipping. In the latest SurveyMonkey/Axios poll , it's Joe Although nationwide Covid-19 infections reached a new high on Thursday, the president has decided

Mr. Biden has held a more consistent advantage in Nevada and South Carolina, the other states to At a meeting of political donors in New York on Wednesday, close advisers to Mr. Biden argued that “If Biden were to finish first in Iowa and then first or second in New Hampshire, it’s very hard to see

Consider that a Marquette Law School poll in Wisconsin conducted in October 2016 had Clinton up by 6 percentage points — but that Trump ultimately won the state by 0.7 points.

As Vox’s Li Zhou has explained, there are many reasons that a number of state polls were off the mark in 2016 compared to the final election results. Some of those have been corrected for during this election cycle — for instance, in the run-up to 2016, some polls overrepresented Clinton voters because they failed to account for differences in education level, and that’s largely no longer the case: Both the CBS News and Dallas Morning News polls were weighted by education, for example.

But there are still plenty of obstacles. Polling is always a snapshot of a specific time and group of voters, and ultimately can’t give definitive insight into the likelihood that someone sharing their preference with a pollster will actually show up at the voting booth on Election Day. It also can’t necessarily predict the patterns of late-breaking voters who decide on their candidate in the final days before election (something that played a crucial role in Trump’s victory).

Adding to the uncertainty is that the pandemic makes predictions based on polling especially difficult, as Zhou explains:

Catholic Guilt

  Catholic Guilt The former vice president is using his Scranton bona fides to win over a key voting bloc.Selling America on this Irish Catholic Lake Wobegon—a place where family comes first, everyone’s middle class, and all of the kids learn the same basic values from the wise nuns around the corner—is how Biden hopes to win the 2020 election.Toss-up states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are roughly one-quarter Catholic, and many of these Catholics are white voters who abandoned their longtime affiliation with the Democratic Party to support Donald Trump in 2016.

Specifically, the use of vote-by-mail due to the coronavirus pandemic makes predicting the composition of the electorate that much harder. It’s unclear how closely turnout will match up with prior years because of public health concerns about physical polling places and questions around the number of people who’ll use mail-in ballots instead.

“It’s difficult to do a turnout model because you’re not sure who’s going to turn out. That’s going to be even harder in an election that has extensive vote-by-mail,” says University of New Mexico political science professor Lonna Atkeson.

Bottom line: this Southern swing state polling is promising for Biden, but polls are not to be confused with perfect predictions of outcome.

Will you help keep Vox free for all?

The United States is in the middle of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes. It’s essential that all Americans are able to access clear, concise information on what the outcome of the election could mean for their lives, and the lives of their families and communities. That is our mission at Vox. But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources. Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers, your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work. If you have already contributed, thank you. If you haven’t, please consider helping everyone understand this presidential election: Contribute today from as little as $3.

What’s the deal with the Hunter Biden email controversy? .
Journalist Glenn Greenwald resigned over The Intercept’s handling of his story about the controversy this week.Greenwald accused his editors at The Intercept, a news outlet he cofounded, of censoring an article he wrote, “based on recently revealed emails and witness testimony” that “raised critical questions” about Democrat Joe Biden’s conduct.

usr: 0
This is interesting!