World Ethiopia capturing Tigray capital may not end conflict: Analysts

11:50  24 november  2020
11:50  24 november  2020 Source:   aljazeera.com

Crisis has engulfed Ethiopia. Here’s what it means

  Crisis has engulfed Ethiopia. Here’s what it means A conflict in the Tigray region is threatening to destabilise East Africa. This is why.Fighting has been going on for almost two weeks, destabilising the populous country in East Africa, with reports of hundreds dead.

Within days, the conflict in the north-western Ethiopian region of Tigray may reach a bloody climax. This aimed to secure Mekelle, the highland capital of Tigray . Then, it was implied, what Abiy and Abiy’s strategic aim is to oust Tigray ’s ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)

Flags representing the Tigray region of Ethiopia lining a wall in the Tigrayan city of Mekele. Ethiopian fighter jets bombed targets in the restive northern province of Tigray , Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said on Friday, in the latest escalation of a three-day old conflict that is driving the populous

Leaders in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray state have rejected the government’s claims that federal troops are surrounding the regional capital, Mekelle, as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed gives the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) until Wednesday to surrender.

a man sitting on a bench: Ethiopia's army says it plans to surround Mekelle with tanks and may attack it with artillery to end a nearly three-week war [Eduardo Soteras/AFP] © Ethiopia's army says it plans to surround Mekelle with tanks and may attack it with artillery to end... Ethiopia's army says it plans to surround Mekelle with tanks and may attack it with artillery to end a nearly three-week war [Eduardo Soteras/AFP]

TPLF leaders on Tuesday said the Tigrayan people are “ready to die” in defence of their land and said they have “completely destroyed” the federal army’s 21st mechanised division,

Why Ethiopia may be marching into guerrilla war

  Why Ethiopia may be marching into guerrilla war The government is hoping for a quick victory in Tigray but it may not be that simple.But the Ethiopian military believes that it can prevent this from happening through the offensive it launched on 4 November to oust the TPLF and arrest more than 70 of its leaders and military officers.

According to a government spokesman, Ethiopian forces have encircled the Tigray regional capital Mekele. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called on rebel forces to surrender – but the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) vowed to keep on fighting.

With the Ethiopian government conducting a military offensive in the northern Tigray region, some people have taken the opportunity to spread misinformation online. This includes material either not directly related to the conflict or, sometimes, altered to make it look like it is.

Later on Tuesday, the United Nations Security Council is expected to discuss the unrest, which has forced tens of thousands of Ethiopian civilians to seek refuge in neighbouring Sudan.

But analysts say the government troops capturing the Tigrayan capital may not be the end of the conflict in one of the poorest regions in Africa’s second-most populous country.

“The conflict could evolve and there is frightening possibility it could become entrenched. Both sides are heavily armed and this could lead to a prolonged insurgent warfare,” Ahmed Soliman, research fellow at London-based think-tank, Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.

“The impact of the conflict could also continue to spill over into neighbouring countries.”

On Sunday, Abiy, the African continent’s youngest leader and last year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner, gave the TPLF forces a 72-hour ultimatum to surrender or face a “final” military offensive on Mekelle.

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The Ethiopian government says it has captured the city of Adigrat in the insurgency-hit Tigray "The primary task of the special envoys is to engage all sides to the conflict with a view to ending hostilities, creating Read more: Ethiopia : Tigray forces fire rockets at regional capital . Abiy also appointed an

Ethiopia Conflict : Humanitarian Crisis Unfolds in Horn in Africa. Listen to article. 2:47. Ethiopia ’s government said its troops have wrested control of most of the northern state of Tigray from Most large Tigrayan towns, including Axum, Adwa and Adigrat, have been captured from the

Abiy said the TPLF leaders were “at a point of no return”, urging them “to take this last opportunity” as the Ethiopian army said it was encircling the city, home to an estimated 500,000 people.

Soliman said Abiy’s ultimatum “fits in with the prime minister and federal government’s narrative that they are implementing a law enforcement operation to remove criminal elements from Tigray”.

“The ultimatum is also meant to weaken support for the TPLF amongst the civilians in Tigray and encourage them to leave or support the federal government,” he said.

Simmering tensions

For three decades, the Tigrayans dominated the governing alliance composed of four ethno-regional parties until Abiy, a member of the Oromo ethnic group, came to power in April 2018.

Under Abiy, the TPLF accused Addis Ababa of unfairly targeting leaders from its region in corruption prosecutions, removing many of them from top government positions.

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"This would deepen the conflict , lead to fighting between Tigray and Amhara elements, and make it less likely that the TPLF would agree to a ceasefire." Street was calling for 4 million.Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch is “encouraged” by the increasing adoption of the company’s forklift solutions

© Provided by Khaleej Times Ethiopia pushes toward rebel-held Tigray capital . The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) rebels said nine civilians had died among heavy Abiy, who won the Nobel Peace Prize last year for a peace pact with Eritrea, aims to capture TPLF leaders before talking.

A year ago, Abiy dissolved the governing coalition and created the Prosperity Party in its place. The TPLF refused to play ball and went their separate way.

In September, tensions further escalated after Tigray held its own election, defying the federal government which postponed the general elections due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Addis Ababa declared the Tigray election as unlawful. In response, Tigray said it no longer recognised Abiy’s “illegitimate” administration, claiming its term had ended.

The federal government retaliated by cutting funds to the region, with the TPLF saying the move was “tantamount to an act of war”.

“Abiy speaks of democracy but has zero interest in any of the things that democracy stands for,” Solomon Mezgebu, a scholar from Tigray, told Al Jazeera.

“Tigray introduced federalism in Ethiopia. Abiy is against federalism so he has mobilised the country’s entire army to subjugate, crash and annihilate the people behind the idea.”

As tensions grew, phone lines and internet connections were cut off in Tigray and aid agencies blocked from accessing the mountainous region.

Humanitarian crisis unfolding in Ethiopia, UN

  Humanitarian crisis unfolding in Ethiopia, UN Thousands are fleeing every day from the Tigray region and the UN says its teams are overwhelmed.At least 27,000 people have so far fled to neighbouring Sudan, and the UN says its teams there are overwhelmed.

Addis Ababa says the offensive is targeted at only the TPLF leaders, not the people from the region.

“In our law enforcement operations, all the necessary precautionary measures have been taken to ensure that civilians are not harmed,” Abiy said in a statement on Sunday.

“Although the TPLF clique want severe damages to occur, our military planes have been very careful not to harm civilians, to the extent where missions have been aborted on identifying civilians around target areas,” the statement added.

Still, hundreds of people, including civilians, are feared killed in the three-week conflict, while more than 40,000 people have crossed into Sudan, according to the UN.

Last week, the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, said 4,000 people were crossing into Sudan from Ethiopia every day since the conflict began.

On Monday, rights group Amnesty International called on the Ethiopian government to protect civilians in the offensive on regional capital, Mekelle.

“The conflict in the Tigray region has already claimed hundreds of civilian lives, left many more injured, and forced thousands into refugee camps in neighbouring Sudan,” Deprose Muchena, Amnesty International’s director for East and Southern Africa, said on Monday.

“Commanders in both the Ethiopian national army and the TPLF must take active steps to protect civilians during any fighting, including by taking all feasible precautions to avoid harm to civilians and civilian infrastructure and avoiding locating military facilities and soldiers near concentrations of civilians,” Muchena said.

Meanwhile, the UN Security Council late on Monday said it will hold its first meeting on the situation in Ethiopia, as Abiy’s government warned the TPLF leaders would face charges of high treason, “terrorism” and attacking a neighbouring state.

Tigrayan scholar Soloman said Abiy’s forces may end up “capturing all the towns and villages” in Tigray, “but the people of Tigray will never be subjugated”.

“History tells us that will not happen,” he told Al Jazeera. “The world, and the UN Security Council, in particular, need to demand cessation of the fighting because there will be no winners, only losers.”

Follow Hamza Mohamed on Twitter: @Hamza_Africa

Ethiopia bombs Tigray capital as it rejects mediation calls .
Hundreds of people have been killed and some 25,000 have fled to Sudan since fighting began on November 4.Ann Encontre, representative of the United Nations refugee agency in Ethiopia, said colleagues in the city of Mekelle, on Monday, reported witnessing “an air strike, not far from them”.

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