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World Gavin Newsom Recall Unlikely Even as Petition Clears Hurdle, Democratic Strategists Say

23:48  18 february  2021
23:48  18 february  2021 Source:   newsweek.com

California Teachers Feel 'Disposable' as Gavin Newsom Pushes For Schools to Reopen

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" Recall organizers say they have collected more than half the nearly 1.5 million petition signatures needed to place the recall on the ballot, and they have until mid-March to hit the required threshold." (Almost two decades ago, California Democratic Gov. Gray Davis was recalled by the state's voters Add this to all of that: Newsom must appoint someone to Kamala Harris' Senate seat and pick a replacement for California Attorney General Xavier Becerra, who is President-elect Joe Biden's choice to head the Department of Health and Human Services. Newsom is coming under intense pressure

An effort to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) was launched on June 10, 2020. Supporters have until March 17, 2021, to collect the 1,495,709 signatures needed to trigger a recall election. If supporters turn in enough valid signatures to trigger a recall election

a close up of a person wearing a mask: Democratic strategists who are familiar with the last recall election in California do not believe the recall campaign California Governor Gavin Newsom is facing will be successful in ousting him. In the photo above, Newsom enters a press conference following the opening of a new large scale COVID-19 vaccination site at Cal State Los Angeles on February 16, 2021 in Los Angeles, California. © Mario Tama/Getty Democratic strategists who are familiar with the last recall election in California do not believe the recall campaign California Governor Gavin Newsom is facing will be successful in ousting him. In the photo above, Newsom enters a press conference following the opening of a new large scale COVID-19 vaccination site at Cal State Los Angeles on February 16, 2021 in Los Angeles, California.

Gavin Newsom may soon become the first California governor to face a recall election in 18 years, but Democratic strategists familiar with the state's last gubernatorial recall election say it is unlikely he will be voted out of office before his term ends.

Gavin Newsom Faces Recall Election as Campaign Collects 1,509,000 Signatures

  Gavin Newsom Faces Recall Election as Campaign Collects 1,509,000 Signatures Only one California governor has been removed from office following a recall election in the last 100 years.Recall Gavin Newsom launched last year and amassed more than 900,000 signatures by the end of December. The recall campaign said it collected more than 1.4 million signatures by early February and gathered a total of 1,509,000 signatures by Friday.

But Newsom last month said he wasn't "pointing fingers" and focused instead on how Bloom Energy in Sunnyvale was working overtime to refurbish the machines. Even as his talking points about Trump gave the president a campaign layup, that high-road approach has won praise from longtime Democratic activists who see Newsom ’s approach as being beneficial both to the state and to the governor’s political career. Newsom 's unlikely BFF status with Trump has helped him secure significant federal resources to tackle the public health crisis, some longtime politics watchers say .

Gavin Newsom survives a recall attempt, his political agenda could suffer. The Democratic governor tends to trumpet his grandest ambitions as an affirmation of California’s progressive values and its status as a national model. Of course, what might be achievable in deeply Democratic California isn’t as viable in more conservative corners of the nation. Gavin Newsom said they had reached the number of signatures necessary to trigger a special election, one conservative influencer falsely claimed that the organizers have faced hurdles that voters in November’s election did not.”

Though several states allow voters to recall elected officials, only two state governors have ever been removed from office in this fashion. The most recent governor to face this fate was Gray Davis, the former Democratic governor in California whom voters ousted in 2003.

The recall campaign targeting Newsom has drawn comparisons to Davis' recall, but Garry South, the strategist who advised Davis through his successful election in 1998 and reelection in 2002, says the scenarios are entirely different.

It was just months into Davis' second term that a recall campaign summoned enough support to trigger a recall election, and Davis later lost his position to Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger in the fall of 2003.

Eighteen years later, Newsom is likely to face a recall of his own after Recall Gavin Newsom announced it had collected more than 1.5 million signatures, surpassing the minimum 1,495,709 signatures—equal to 12 percent of the votes cast in the state election Newsom won—needed to qualify for a ballot.

Fact Check: Did California Verify Signatures for Newsom Recall But Not Mail-In Ballots?

  Fact Check: Did California Verify Signatures for Newsom Recall But Not Mail-In Ballots? Last year, the movement to recall Gavin Newsom began after growing frustration over the Democratic California governor's leadership. Organizers of Recall Gavin 2020 and Rescue California cited several reasons why Newsom has "failed Californians."Organizers of Recall Gavin 2020 and Rescue California cited several reasons why Newsom has "failed Californians," including rising unemployment, homelessness, high taxes, a rise in crime, lack of affordable housing, a failure to enforce immigration laws and his move to "overrule the will of the people regarding the death penalty.

Democratic and Republican strategists told POLITICO that the way single-payer played out in the Newsom -Villaraigosa contest is exactly how they see the fight between the liberal presidential candidates touting Medicare for All and the moderates vowing to improve Obamacare: First, promise Medicare for All. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gavin Newsom listens to a question while speaking with delegates at the 2018 California Democrats State Convention Saturday, Feb. 24, 2018, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy). Each model, he said , is better than the existing system.

Why do you think we should recall Governor Gavin Newsom ? Please send us an email with your reason for recalling Gavin Newsom , include your name and your county for consideration to blogs@recallgavin2020.com. I’ll keep my reasons for signing the recall petition succinct. Gavin ’s “do as I say and not as I do,” insufferable, holier-than-thou elitism was made very apparent when he dined indoors with dozens of people, including lobbyists, at an exclusive restaurant in direct contradiction to what he has demanded all of us small, unimportant people […]

Randy Economy, a spokesman for Recall Gavin Newsom, recently told Newsweek the campaign plans to continue gathering signatures through its March 17 deadline to make sure it still meets that threshold after the signatures are verified.

County officials throughout California will have until April 29 to verify the signatures, according to CalMatters. Those who signed the petition will then have a window of time to withdraw their signatures, if they so choose, before the final tally is sent to California Secretary of State Shirley Weber, which will then trigger reviews by her office and by the state's top finance officials. Depending on how long each procedural step takes, experts predict a recall election would take place in the late summer or fall.

South told Newsweek if all of the state's requirements for a recall are met and an election is scheduled, he does not believe it will be successful in ousting Newsom. It is a belief he shares with Davis, who recently told Newsweek he thinks Newsom will be reelected in 2022.

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Now democratic countries around the world are echoing the same fears.Stay on top of the latest market trends and economic insights with Axios Markets. Subscribe for freeThe Netherlands: Last week, the Dutch General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD) released a report on threats to Dutch national security interests. POPULAR. California police sergeant endorses recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom .

Gov. Gavin Newsom discusses the 2020 election while visiting the Golden State Warriors training facility, which is serving as a polling location, on Nov. "The tentative ruling makes clear that the Governor’s statutory emergency authority is broad, and constitutional, and that the Governor has the authority, necessary in emergencies, to suspend statutes and issue orders to protect Californians,” the statement said . “Additionally, this ruling has absolutely no effect whatsoever on the current election.

"I think they're actually quite high," South said of Newsom's chances of success. "I went through the Davis recall in 2003, so I've seen this movie before."

There are several contextual differences between Davis' recall in 2003 and the recall effort Newsom is facing, South said. One notable difference is that the state has a greater percentage of registered Democrats now than it did in the early 2000s—a jump from 43.68 percent in September 2003 to 46.13 percent in October 2020, according to state data. Meanwhile, the percentage of registered Republicans has declined from 33.99 percent in 2003 to 24.19 percent last fall.

"The state is just a lot more Democratic today than it was in 2003," South said.

Newsom also won by a greater margin when he was elected in 2018 than Davis did in his bid for reelection in 2002, South said. While Davis secured his second term with about 47.3 percent of the statewide vote, Newsom won with about 61.9 percent of the votes cast. Newsom has also maintained a stronger voter-approval rating, despite recent dips in popularity, than Davis did during his final year in office, South said.

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Having a Democrat in the White House is another variable that could play in Newsom's favor, South said. While Davis entered his brief second term with a Republican president in office, President Joe Biden has already indicated support for Newsom amid the recall effort.

"In addition to sharing a commitment to a range of issues with @GavinNewsom from addressing the climate crisis to getting the pandemic under control, @POTUS clearly opposes any effort to recall @GavinNewsom," White House press secretary Jen Psaki tweeted on February 9.

"Newsom, with the election of Biden, has a very friendly president in the White House—and, by the way, a vice president who's from California, from his own state," South said. "On all of those counts, Newsom is just in far better shape to fight this off than Davis was in 2003."

While the recall campaign lists several issues unrelated to Newsom's response to the coronavirus pandemic as reasons to remove him from office—including his policy positions on the Second Amendment, immigration and health insurance—Economy told Newsweek in late 2020 that the state's struggle with COVID-19 fueled the recall effort. According to South, that's another reason why a recall campaign is unlikely to be successful.

California Teachers Get Small Victory As Newsom Announces They Can Get COVID Vaccine in March

  California Teachers Get Small Victory As Newsom Announces They Can Get COVID Vaccine in March Providing vaccine access to teachers has been a big sticking point between the state and unions in their ongoing negotiations to reopen schools.Starting next month, 10 percent of the first COVID-19 doses California receives will be set aside for educators and child care workers, Governor Gavin Newsom said Friday. While 35 of California's 58 counties were already making COVID-19 vaccines available to teachers, Newsom said this move would help teachers statewide gain access to vaccine appointments.

"The pandemic has certainly affected Newsom's ratings, but it's not unique to California—it's affecting all 50 states," South said. In contrast, Davis struggled with an energy crisis ahead of his recall election that was strictly a California issue, South said. As more Californians are vaccinated and the state is able to lift some of its pandemic restrictions, attitudes may shift back in Newsom's favor by the time a recall election is put on the calendar, he added.

"Depending on how the whole timing sequence works out here, we're going to be in a very different world," South said.

Though Newsom may be in a better position heading into a potential recall election than Davis was 18 years ago, Newsom has made mistakes, South said. Aside from his infamous attendance at a dinner last fall—which critics have called hypocritical because Newsom has encouraged Californians to avoid public gatherings—blunders in the state's COVID-19 vaccine distribution could be another trouble area for him if they continue, though South said some of the early hiccups appear to be smoothing out.

Another potential liability South identified for Newsom is the school reopening debate. As Biden pushes for schools to find safe ways to reopen for in-person instruction, Newsom and teachers unions throughout the state have yet to agree on how to do so.

"The school closure issue is an important one," South said. "It's one that will cost him some votes, if they don't figure it out and do it properly."

As Psaki's tweet of support for Newsom indicated, many Democrats are defending the governor as the recall campaign against him gains steam, but there is no guarantee that a recall election would be devoid of Democratic challengers. This is the possibility Newsom should watch out for, according to Steven Maviglio, a Democratic strategist who once worked as Davis' communications director.

Gavin Newsom Edges Toward Recall as Officials Accept More Than 80 Percent of Signatures

  Gavin Newsom Edges Toward Recall as Officials Accept More Than 80 Percent of Signatures In past efforts to recall a California governor, signature verification hovered between 40 and 60 percent , this latest recall effort has seen election officials verifying more than 80 percent of the submitted signatures. At least 130,108 signatures have been deemed invalid during the review process. There have been 55 attempts in California history to recall a governor, but the only successful one was Gray Davis in 2003. A key factor in favor of recall supporters is the relatively low rate of rejected signatures compared to previous attempts.

"I think the most important thing for Governor Newsom to do right now is to keep a Democrat out of this," Maviglio told KGO-TV on Wednesday. But Maviglio said running against Newsom would be a "steep uphill battle" for a Democratic challenger.

"Any Democrat who gets into this race will be a pariah in the party forever," he told the station.

Since one of the country's two successful governor recalls happened in California within the past two decades, South said lots of comparisons have been drawn between Newsom and Davis. But he believes there are far more differences in their situations than there are similarities.

"Their starting points for a recall are far, far different," South said. "Newsom goes into this much stronger than Davis was in 2003."

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Who Qualifies For California Stimulus? How to See if You're Eligible For $600 Checks .
Some Californians could receive their $600 checks as soon as about a month after filing their 2020 tax returns. The $600 payments form part of the state's $7.6 billion COVID-19 relief package, which includes $2.1 billion in grants and fee waivers for small businesses.An additional $2 billion in tax breaks for businesses is expected be approved by the California Legislature this week, raising the total relief amount to $9.6 billion.Who qualifies for the $600 stimulus payment?Those who fall within the following categories are qualified to receive the $600 check: Residents receiving CalEITC for 2020.

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