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World Covid-19. The number of contaminations could explode in mid-March, according to the Institut Pasteur de Lille

13:45  28 february  2021
13:45  28 february  2021 Source:   ouest-france.fr

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Projections from the Institut Pasteur in Lille estimate that France could register nearly 50,000 daily cases by mid-March, under the effect of variants.

For a week, the number of Covid-19 contaminations in France has been increasing . And if the government is betting on curfews and local measures, many scientists are warning of an explosion of cases in the spring. This is the case of the Institut Pasteur de Lille, whose Journal du Dimanche published projections for the coming weeks.

According to the curve of Philippe Amouyel and Luc Dauchet, respectively professor and lecturer in public health at the Lille University Hospital (North), contaminations could thus experience an exponential increase in the coming days to reach 50,000 daily cases on March 20 , against just over 21,000 on February 24.

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This increase will be largely the consequence of variants, more contagious, which are now the majority on French territory .

"We have saved time on the moment when we will have no other choice than confinement"

Note that the Institut Pasteur de Lille had already presented projections at the beginning of February which predicted, a sharp increase in cases from the end of February . "As of February 15, we could think that it would pass and we did not quite understand why it went down" , recognizes Philippe Amouyel. According to him, "the curve has shifted in time but we still find the same" .

Faced with this increase in cases, the two scientists advocate re-containment. "We have saved time when we will have no other choice but confinement, thinks Luc Dauchet. But the sooner you act, the better. " By comparison, at the end of October, the week before the last confinement, the number of daily cases approached 40,000.

While the government is doing everything to avoid taking this measure, Philippe Amouyel finally believes that " the bet could have been pay, but it would have required additional measures. Because it is interesting to delay the confinement if we can make the connection with the vaccination. In Brittany, for example, it could work. "

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