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World The COVID behind it, China signs record growth

12:45  16 april  2021
12:45  16 april  2021 Source:   lepoint.fr

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  Le Covid derrière elle, la Chine signe une croissance record © provided by the point

C Rive Range, but uneven recovery: the China saw its gross domestic product (GDP) jumping 18.3% on a year in the first quarter, a figure to be qualified as the activity was paralyzed last year by the epidemic. A year ago at the same time, China's GDP in the first quarter 2020 had collapsed by 6.8%, its worst economic performance in 44 years.

The gradual improvement of sanitary conditions then enabled China to find a level of prepamememic activity at the end of last year. And the country has been one of the few in the world to generate positive growth in 2020 (+ 2.3%). "Overall, the recovery continued in the first quarter" 2021, and it marks "a good start", noted before the press a spokesman for the National Office of Statistics, Liu Aihua.

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China has been signing recorded recorded since the beginning of its quarterly GDP publications in 1992. This strong acceleration of China's GDP in the first quarter was largely anticipated: a group of analysts surveyed by the Agence France-Press also was an even greater increase (18.7%). "The foundation of the recovery must be consolidated", however, warned Ms. Liu, including the "uncertainties" who persist in the epidemic world.

An "uneven recovery"

This good result is mainly related to the low comparison base with the beginning 2020 when the Chinese economy was paralyzed by the virus, admitted Liu Aihua. Consequence, the figure of growth "does not know about the current dynamics of the economy", warns the Julian Evans-Pritchard analyst, Capital Economics. Although subject to bail, the official figure of China's GDP is always closely scrutinized considering the country's weight in the global economy. "The main driver of growth in the first quarter was exports," in particular electronic products (for teleworking) and medical equipment to the United States and the European Union, indicates to the Agency France -Presse the economist Rajiv Biswas, from Cabinet IHS Markit.

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in March, Chinese exports remained robust (+ 30.6% year-on-year), as much of the world is always struck by the epidemic. However, "the recovery remains uneven, with a consumption of households behind the fact, in particular, unemployment, noted in a recent note the analyst of the HSBC bank that Hongbin. Retail sales, the main indicator of consumption, increased by 34.2% year-on-year in March, compared with 33.8% in January-February accumulated, only available data. But some sectors are struggling to find their prepandememic level, in the image of air and rail transport, including the level of activity ceiling 60% .Table incomplete

"a complete rebound of household consumption is conditioned in the vaccination campaign and an improvement in the labor market, "says Oxford Economics, Louis Kuijs. The unemployment rate calculated for urban only occurred in March at 5.3%, after an absolute record of 6.2% in February 2020 at the height of the epidemic. This criterion, however, draws up an incomplete picture of economic conditions: in China, unemployment does not take into account nearly 300 million migrant workers, of rural origin, heavily penalized last year by the epidemic. For its part, Chinese industrial production grew by 14.1% in March, compared with 35.1% in January-February accumulated. As for fixed capital investment, its growth since the beginning of the year was displayed at the end of March at 25.6%.

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now given epidemic shock, Beijing aims at a growth goal of at least 6% this year, a much more modest figure than the most economists' forecasts. "Strong exports combined with a strong improvement in domestic consumption" will be the main engines for Chinese growth in the coming months, says Rajiv Biswas. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) table, for its part, on an increase of 8.4% of the GDP of the second world economy.

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