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World Larry Elder's Chances of Replacing Gavin Newsom in California Recall Election

18:06  12 september  2021
18:06  12 september  2021 Source:   newsweek.com

Larry Elder's Mostly Secret Hollywood Supporters Are Working Hard to Help Him Beat Newsom

  Larry Elder's Mostly Secret Hollywood Supporters Are Working Hard to Help Him Beat Newsom It's tough to support California gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder in Hollywood, several celebrities tell Newsweek. But a few won't be "bullied" into silence.It's not like the legions of celebrity supporters who are throwing their weight (and cash) behind Governor Gavin Newsom in the nail-biter recall election—Steven Spielberg and Netflix founder Reed Hastings among them—but it is an indication of a more nuanced Hollywood movement going on behind the scenes.

Conservative radio host Larry Elder appears on track to win the most votes of the 46 candidates running to replace Governor Gavin Newsom in the California recall election on September.

Larry Elder wearing a suit and tie: Republican gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder speaks to supporters during an Asian Rally for Yes Recall at the Asian Garden Mall in Little Saigon, Westminster, California, on September 4, 2021. Bookmakers' odds suggest Elder will triumph among the replacement candidates but Governor Gavin Newsom will remain in office. © RINGO CHIU/AFP/Getty Images Republican gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder speaks to supporters during an Asian Rally for Yes Recall at the Asian Garden Mall in Little Saigon, Westminster, California, on September 4, 2021. Bookmakers' odds suggest Elder will triumph among the replacement candidates but Governor Gavin Newsom will remain in office.

Elder, who is running as a Republican, looks like he'll miss out on the state's top job, however. Bookmakers Betfair, which operates the world's largest online betting exchange, told Newsweek that Elder's odds of replacing Newsom stand at 8/1.

Fox News Host Confronts Larry Elder Over His Media Criticism, Suggests He's 'Fair Game'

  Fox News Host Confronts Larry Elder Over His Media Criticism, Suggests He's 'Fair Game' The conservative talk radio host has emerged as the leading challenger to California's Governor Gavin Newsom in the recall election scheduled for September 14.Elder, a conservative talk radio host, has routinely argued that the media is attacking him and covering his candidacy unfairly. The Republican contender has said that the press is particularly against him because he's a Black conservative.

This means if a person bets $1 on Elder to replace Newsom in this election and he succeeds, they would win $8. Those numbers suggest the prospect remains unlikely.

A Betfair spokesperson told Newsweek that Elder's odds of winning the most votes on the replacement ballot are 1/50.

Based on these odds, Elder is almost certain to place first among the replacement candidates, a result which is also borne out in recent polling.

But Elder's likely victory on the replacement ballot will not be enough to land him the governor's job.

The recall election has two parts. First, voters are asked if they want to recall Newsom. If 50 percent of voters choose to remove the governor, he will lose his position and then the replacement ballot comes into play.

Gavin Newsom on Shaky Ground Six Weeks Out From California Recall Election

  Gavin Newsom on Shaky Ground Six Weeks Out From California Recall Election California voters will decide the Democratic governor's fate during the statewide recall election on September 14.If Newsom defeats the recall effort, he will remain in office and get the opportunity to run for a second term in the 2022 midterm election. But if more than 50 percent of California voters cast their ballots in favor of removing the Democrat from office, the recall candidate who receives the greatest number of votes will replace him and run the state until the midterms.

In the event that Newsom is successfully recalled, the candidate who wins the most votes on the replacement list will become the next governor of California. Newsom cannot run as his own replacement and California Democrats have not nominated an official backup candidate.

Elder could theoretically become governor if he wins more votes than the next most successful candidate but only if Newsom, a Democrat, is removed from office. There is no requirement for the governor's replacement to win a certain percentage of the vote. Both betting odds and recent polls suggest Newsom will survive the recall effort, however.

Newsom's odds of beating the recall have also improved in the last week and his odds of being recalled were 4/1 as of Sunday, September 12. The governor's odds of surviving the recall effort stood at 1/8, meaning it is highly likely he will remain in office.

Sunday's odds represented a slight decline on those offered on Saturday when Betfair was giving odds of 1/18 on Newsom staying in office and 6/1 on him being removed. However, Sunday's figure was still an improvement on odds of 2/9 in favor of Newsom beating the recall that Betfair was offering earlier this week.

Newsom, Elder Polling Strong in California Recall 1 Week Out From Election

  Newsom, Elder Polling Strong in California Recall 1 Week Out From Election Recent polling indicates Governor Gavin Newsom is likely to remain in office following the September 14 recall election.If the Democrat is recalled, conservative radio host Larry Elder is the candidate most likely to replace him, according to several voter surveys conducted since Elder announced his campaign in July. Elder is one of 46 candidates who appear on the recall ballot.

Recent polling has also indicated that Newsom will beat the recall and that Elder is leading among the 46 replacement candidates. A Spectrum News/Ipsos poll, which was released on Wednesday, showed the governor enjoying 58 percent favorability among registered California voters. By contrast, Elder was viewed favorably by 26 percent of voters in the poll.

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Newsom won. California’s recall system could use reform. .
The recall attempt was essentially an effort to hack California’s electoral system , because the bizarrely designed recall system gave conservatives an unusually high chance of winning. If Newsom had failed to top 50 percent of the vote on the recall question, he would have been ousted. Then whoever came in first place in the crowded field of candidates running to replace him would have become governor — even if they got far less than 50 percent of the overall vote. Newsom was prohibited from running as a replacement candidate himself.

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