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World Gloomy economic forecasts: After the IMF and Germany's top economists now the Bundesbank

18:30  25 october  2021
18:30  25 october  2021 Source:   tagesspiegel.de

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Almost all economic forecasts anticipate much slower recovery than assumed. Also, two recent studies nourish fears.

Die Autoindustrie ist von der Chipkrise massiv beeinträchtigt. © imago images / Bild13 The auto industry is heavily affected by the chip crisis.

The International Monetary Fund has already done . German economic research institutes in their bi-annual Gemeinschaftsdiagnose also. All revised their economic forecasts for the current year significantly downwards.

And now the Bundesbank in the pessimistic tenor joins. "2021 total GDP should grow much less than in the June projection of the Bundesbank expects," puts it in, presented on Monday Monthly Reports German central bank . At that time they had budgeted nor an increase of 3.7 percent in gross domestic product (GDP). The economic performance will fall short according to the report in the autumn pre-crisis levels by the final quarter of 2019.

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Cyclical turnaround by Ifo report

also the on Monday published Ifo Business Climate Index, the monthly measures the mood in the German boardrooms, comes to a pessimistic assessment. For the fourth consecutive year was the economic barometer; this time by 1.2 points to a level of 97.7 meters. The expectations were "increasingly characterized by skepticism," said Ifo President Clemens Fuest.

The current situation is less well appreciated. Create make the company delivery problems, explained Fuest. sinks "Capacity utilization in industry. Spanner in the German economy inhibits the recovery. "For the business climate index, the institute surveyed each month about 9,000 companies. Ifo economic expert Klaus Wohlrabe warned of "uncomfortable Autumn".

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drops the Ifo index three times in succession, experts speak of an economic turnaround.

BDI emphasized importance of chips

Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer now sees the fourth decrease as a warning signal. "Companies guessed that politicians infections Corona will respond with new restrictions on the sharp rise." Furthermore, the new Corona-wave lead, especially in Asia to plant closures, which the material shortage will worsen this country. "The German economy is unlikely to grow in the fourth quarter," says Kramer.

The shortages of materials at major intermediate products such as semiconductors calls, meanwhile, the industry lobby on the plan. "With increasing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, intensified the political technology competition where semiconductor production the focus is," it says in a BDI paper Monday. Next, the industry association calls for state money at European level to allow greater independence on the chip market. "The targeted promotion of key technologies is indispensable", concluded.

Much skepticism compared to possible digital EURO .
four out of ten citizens in Germany can basically imagine a Bundesbank survey to use a digital euro in the future. © Karl-Josef Hildenbrand / DPA Whether a digital euro will come, is not yet decided. , however, there is also much skepticism compared to the project-promoted project, as shown by the survey published on Monday. More than half (56 percent) of respondents claimed not to advocate the introduction of a digital euro.

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