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World Will Trump’s North Korea gamble actually pay off?

14:07  12 march  2018
14:07  12 march  2018 Source:   washingtonpost.com

North Korea may ditch its nukes and the Australian dollar is rallying

  North Korea may ditch its nukes and the Australian dollar is rallying The Australian dollar surged overnight on news that North Korea may abandon its nuclear programme RBA governor Philip Lowe will speak in Sydney today before the release of Australia's GDP reportThat pretty much sums up Tuesday's trading session with the AUD/USD jumping back above the 78 cent level on a perceived reduction in geopolitical risks.

Last week was a whirlwind for North Korea watchers. On Thursday, South Korean officials announced that President Trump had agreed to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un by the end of May, a move my colleagues called a “high-wire gambit.”

Last week was a whirlwind for North Korea watchers. On Thursday, South Korean officials announced that President Trump had agreed to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un by the end of May, a move my colleagues called a “high-wire gambit.”

a man wearing a suit and tie© Provided by WP Company LLC d/b/a The Washington Post Last week was a whirlwind for North Korea watchers.

On Thursday, South Korean officials announced that President Trump had agreed to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un by the end of May, a move my colleagues called a “high-wire gambit.” But by the next day, he had added conditions. White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said on Friday that Trump had agreed to meet “on the basis that we see concrete and verifiable steps.” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin reiterated on Sunday that Trump would meet with Kim only if there were no nuclear or missile tests.

Australia probes company tied to illicit North Korea coal sale - U.N.

  Australia probes company tied to illicit North Korea coal sale - U.N. Australian authorities are investigating a Sydney-based property company accused of breaching United Nations sanctions on North Korea by brokering an illicit sale of coal.Independent U.N. experts monitoring the implementation of sanctions accused Brigt Australia and its director, Livia Wang, of falsely stating that the shipment of coal had come from Russia when it had originated in North Korea, which has been subject to a U.N. Security Council ban on coal exports since Aug. 5, 2017.

Photo provided by the North Korean government.CreditKorean Central News Agency. It’s infinitely better that North Korea and the United States exchange words rather than missiles. Yet President Trump ’ s decision to meet Kim Jong-un strikes me as a dangerous gamble and a bad idea.

How President Trump threw aside caution and agreed to meet with North Korea ’ s Kim Jong-un in a daring and risky diplomatic gambit to end a nuclear standoff. Whether the high-stakes gamble ultimately pays off , no one can know.

“There shouldn't be confusion,” Mnuchin said on “Meet the Press” — perhaps wishfully.

But the lack of clarity doesn't make last week's events any less stunning. A Trump-Kim meeting could be a historic breakthrough in the increasingly tense relations between Washington and Pyongyang, and many experts expressed cautious optimism. Patrick M. Cronin, the senior director of the Asia-Pacific Security program at the Center for a New American Security, praised the Trump administration's aggressive approach on North Korea.

“There is some reason to believe Kim acted at least tactically to nip the mounting pressure campaign in the bud,” he wrote for Foreign Policy. “He could read the writing on the wall: Trump meant maximum pressure until concrete results were achieved, the U.S.-South Korean alliance was holding strong despite political differences, China was increasingly on board with pressure, and elites might already be feeling the pinch from a sharp curtailment of foreign currency flowing into North Korea. Maybe now was the right time to cut a deal and at least buy more time.”

Trump Hails `Great Progress' With Plan to Meet Kim Jong Un

  Trump Hails `Great Progress' With Plan to Meet Kim Jong Un U.S. President Donald Trump hailed “great progress” in talks with North Korea after agreeing to meet Kim Jong Un in what would be an unprecedented summit. “Kim Jong Un talked about denuclearization with the South Korean Representatives, not just a freeze,” Trump said on Twitter late Thursday in Washington. “Also, no missile testing by North Korea during this period of time. Great progress being made but sanctions will remain until an agreement is reached. Meeting being planned!”White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders said earlier the meeting would occur at “a place and time to be determined.

Sign up for the Today’ s WorldView newsletter. Last week was a whirlwind for North Korea watchers. On Thursday, South Korean officials announced that President Trump had agreed to meet with North […]

Trump and Kim have yet to agree even on how to define denuclearization of the Korean peninsula -- the stated goal of the meeting. The president wants the complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantling of his nuclear weapons program. North Korea is seeking a security guarantee

Others are more skeptical. Jeffrey Lewis, an arms-control expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California, called the meeting a clear gift to Kim. “White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders has said that the United States has not made any concessions, but let’s be clear: THE MEETING IS THE CONCESSION,” he wrote, also for Foreign Policy.

He also argued that there's no evidence North Korea is willing to discuss denuclearization, which is, according to Washington, the entire point of the talks.

Long sought by North Korea, summit holds risks for Trump administration

  Long sought by North Korea, summit holds risks for Trump administration Analysts fear Trump's understaffed administration may lack the expertise to successfully turn a political spectacle long sought by Pyongyang into a meaningful opportunity to convince North Korea to abandon its nuclear programme. South Korean officials said Friday Trump almost immediately agreed to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, without preconditions, by the end of May. Even proponents of a diplomatic approach towards North Korea worry the administration could be rushing into a summit with little time to prepare.

Assuming that the meeting actually happens, Trump will be the first sitting president to speak with -- either in person or by phone -- a North Korean leader. Whether you like Trump or hate him, you can't conclude anything other than this is a massive, massive gamble

President Trump ’ s decision to participate in a summit with North Korean despot Kim Jong Un is a dangerous idea. If it works, and Trump actually succeeds in beginning the denuclearization of North Korea , he If the president manages even this much, his gamble might pay off , at least for a while.

“Trump seems to have thought that Kim would meet to give up his nuclear weapons. But for Kim the meeting is about being treated as an equal because of his nuclear and missile programs,” Lewis wrote. “It seems that none of Trump’s aides told him the invitation was nothing special — that North Korea desperately wanted such a visit for more than 20 years. Nor did his staff consider the possibility that North Korea wasn’t offering to abandon its nuclear weapons programs. Maybe none of them realized that.”

Trump's snap decision — and the seemingly short time frame for starting negotiations — also has observers worried. “A summit should be a reward for months, even years, of careful work and actual progress. Meetings at lower levels should progress to more senior principals, and then to the heads of state,” Tom Nichols, a professor of national-security affairs at the Naval War College, wrote in USA Today. “Instead, we have yet another decision, much like the recent and incoherent announcement of tariffs, that looks like sheer impulse.”

Of course, Trump would hardly be the first U.S. president to believe that he alone can break a geopolitical deadlock.

Clinton warns of diplomatic 'danger' in N. Korea talks

  Clinton warns of diplomatic 'danger' in N. Korea talks Hillary Clinton has warned that the Trump administration "was not recognizing the danger" in discussing nuclear disarmament with Pyongyang."If you want to talk to Kim Jong Un about his nuclear weapons you need experienced diplomats," Clinton was quoted as telling Dutch tabloid Algemeen Dagblad in an interview published on Saturday.

But the gamble here is if the Trump administration is getting played – and is elevating Kim Jong Un in the process. “ North Korea has been seeking a summit with an American president for more than twenty years. But in the long run, do they pay off ?

A North Korean military defector confirms that Kim’ s strategy will be to spread chaos and seize key positions in the south before the US has had a chance to reinforce its contingent of 28,000. That explains why the man set to be president of South Korea after yesterday’ s …

“Trump will probably fall victim to the same conceit that most American presidents do in the sense that they [think they] personally, in their interactions with foreign leaders, can work their magic, away from the plodding diplomat,” a top Republican foreign-policy official wrote to Axios. “There is such a desperate desire for a magic solution to this otherwise insoluble problem that people lose touch with reality.”

In reality, the success of the meeting could hinge less on Trump and more on making progress on core issues of trust that are extremely difficult to solve. “For North Korea to lay down its nuclear weapons, Kim must be genuinely convinced that the United States will not harm his regime,” Patricia Kim, the Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote for The Washington Post. “This won’t be easy, given Washington’s track record of taking out dictators, most recently in Iraq and Libya.” North Korea will be no less pressed to prove its own credibility.

There are additional concerns, Kim writes: questions about the rules of engagement — what actions would cause talks to collapse? — and whether the two sides can ever share the same end goal. The United States may demand that North Korea give up its nuclear weapons, but history offers almost no examples of success.

China, Russia welcome Korean peace efforts with diplomacy in overdrive

  China, Russia welcome Korean peace efforts with diplomacy in overdrive China's President Xi Jinping offered encouragement for South Korea's initiative to nurture peaceful engagement with North Korea, and Russia also expressed support, the South Korean official leading diplomatic efforts said on Thursday.During the past week, National Security Office head Chung Eui-yong briefed officials in Beijing and Moscow following his dramatic success in arranging summits between the North Korean, South Korean and U.S. leaders.

President Donald Trump is about to see whether his bet on North Korea will pay off : that Kim Jong Un’ s desire to end his country’ s economic strangulation and pariah status will prevail over the dictator’ s fear of relinquishing his nuclear threat.

President Donald Trump is about to see whether his bet on North Korea will pay off : that Kim Jong Un’ s desire to end his country’ s economic strangulation and pariah status will prevail over the dictator’ s fear of relinquishing his nuclear threat.

“In the history of nuclear weapons there has been only one country that voluntarily gave up its weapons and the program that produced them, and that is South Africa,” physicist Jeremy Bernstein wrote in the New York Times. “That should tell us something about how hard it will be to persuade North Korea to dismantle its large and very sophisticated weapons program.” North Korea, which already boasts a large, sophisticated program, will probably be especially hard to convince.

Even so, a meeting between the two men offers an opportunity to tamp down tensions, if nothing else. As Isaac Stone Fish argues in the Atlantic, it's “probably the least bad way to reduce Pyongyang’s desire to harm the United States.” The sit-down might well convince Kim that the United States does not pose an existential threat and even increase trust between the two nations. That, he says, is worth giving Kim the recognition he craves.

But if Trump isn't careful, says Victor D. Cha, the president's former pick for U.S. ambassador to South Korea, the meeting could fail — and send relations down an even more dangerous path. “Failed negotiations at the summit level leave all parties with no other recourse for diplomacy,” Cha wrote in the New York Times. “In which case, as Mr. Trump has said, we really will have 'run out of road' on North Korea.”

The last 48 hours in rising US-North Korea tensions, explained .
<p>Here’s how a military exercise, a German intelligence assessment, and South Korean “artillery killers” might raise tensions with North Korea.</p>Here’s why: On Monday, Washington and Seoul announced they will hold an annual joint military drill next month. The exercise was previously delayed because of the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may have expected it would not happen ahead of his summit with President Donald Trump. The exercise will certainly annoy him — and may change how he feels about his diplomatic opening.

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