Canada: A 338Canada projection: Have the Tories blown it in Quebec? - - PressFrom - Canada
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Canada A 338Canada projection: Have the Tories blown it in Quebec?

08:55  09 october  2019
08:55  09 october  2019 Source:   macleans.ca

338Canada: The urban-rural divide, right along party lines

  338Canada: The urban-rural divide, right along party lines Philippe J. Fournier: In the least populated ridings, Conservatives dominate voting intentions by 16 points. In the most populated, Liberals are up by 26 points.For a column written by L’actualité magazine political bureau chief Alec Castonguay last week, I calculated a federal seat projection for urban, semi-urban and rural areas. The numbers were striking, so I decided to dig a little deeper.

To calculate the following 338 projection , polls are carefully weighted by field date, sample size, and broken down per region of the country. The latest data made available indicates an erosion of support for the LPC from coast to coast—even in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, which both appeared to be

Popular vote projection . The Conservative Party of Canada still holds the lead with an average A new 338 Canada /Maclean’s projection : Battleground Ontario is tightening The path to a Tory win: Quebec

a group of people posing for the camera: Scheer hugs supporters during a campaign stop in Quebec City on Sept. 25, 2019 (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette)© Used with permission of / © St. Joseph Communications. Scheer hugs supporters during a campaign stop in Quebec City on Sept. 25, 2019 (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette)

At the outset of the campaign, no serious data showed that the Bloc québécois could be a major player in this election. It appeared the Bloc would remain a fringe party fighting to reach the official party status threshold of 12 seats in the House of Commons. Yves-François Blanchet, the charismatic new Bloc leader, sought to pick fights with other leaders by repeating key talking points about Quebec values, and hammering away at the idea that all Canadian politicians basically work against the interests of the province.

Odds of a minority government rise, Liberal chances drop as Bloc surges in polls

  Odds of a minority government rise, Liberal chances drop as Bloc surges in polls Gains by the Bloc in Quebec are erasing the Liberals' enduring seat advantage over the Conservatives. But in the rural regions of Quebec and the francophone areas in and around Montreal, the Liberals had been banking on winning seats with relatively low shares of the vote, benefiting from a vote split between the Conservatives, Bloc and New Democrats.That logic no longer holds now that the Bloc has moved into first place among francophones and (as a consequence) in the regions that were being targeted by the Liberals. That has the potential to paint dozens of seats Bloc blue rather than Liberal red.

Welcome to 338 Canada .com! The 338 Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of P.J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

To calculate the following 338 projection , polls are carefully weighted by field date, sample size, and broken down per region of the country. The latest data made available indicates an erosion of support for the LPC from coast to coast—even in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, which both appeared to be

For the first three weeks of the campaign, Blanchet toured Quebec and was pretty much ignored by all other federal leaders. It was not necessarily an unsound strategy: why give attention to the Bloc if it is just going to rile up Quebec sovereigntists? Best not to poke the sleeping bear, Liberals and Conservatives alike appear to be thinking.

In terms of basic arithmetic, without a dominance in Ontario similar to what Stephen Harper achieved in 2011—73 of province’s then 106 seats and 44 per cent of the vote—there is simply no path to victory for Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives without significant gains in Quebec. And, as of this writing, the 338Canada poll average for Ontario still gives the Liberals a significant edge in the province. Of all the polls published in the past week, the Conservatives are at best in a statistical tie with the Liberals in Ontario, and at worse 10 points or more behind the Grits.

The 2019 election is a conflict between the ‘somewheres’ and ‘anywheres’

  The 2019 election is a conflict between the ‘somewheres’ and ‘anywheres’ Frank Graves and Michael Valpy: Ahead of the Oct. 21 election we see a divided Canada; a war pitting Canadians of social-conservative views against those with more progressive views (what has been termed a conflict between “somewheres and anywheres”); between those whose identities are rooted in a place and embrace family values versus those who have educational success and embrace social and geographical mobility.Adherents of ordered populism have a declining trust in public institutions and a declining sense of middle-class membership.

A new 338 Canada /Maclean’s projection : Battleground Ontario is tightening. Parties' financial returns show Tories topped Liberals in 2018 fundraising. In Quebec , the Bloc Québécois ’ average stands at 12 seats. It appears the Bloc has not (yet) been able to fully take advantage of the NDP’s collapse in

Liberals lead Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. The Bloc is above 20 per cent in Quebec , which could be significant for the seat projection in the province. In both Quebec and Ontario, Ipsos has the Liberals ahead by significant margins (data used with permission from Ipsos Canada).

And so, without a majority of Ontario seats on the horizon, Andrew Scheer needs Quebec more than ever to have hope of winning, barely, a plurality of seats.

Polls in the field in Quebec since the spring certainly indicated that net gains for the Tories in Quebec were possible, if not highly likely. The Angus Reid Institute polled the Tories in the high 20s in Quebec back in April; Léger (who knows a thing or two about Quebec) had the CPC as high as 30 per cent in Quebec in early June. It appeared as if the CPC was poised for gains in the province compared to its 2015 numbers (16.7 per cent of the vote and 12 seats).

Alas, since the campaign began, Quebec numbers have foundered for Scheer. According to the latest 338Canada poll average, the CPC has fallen to third in the province behind both the Liberals and the surging Bloc. Here are the numbers:

a screenshot of a cell phone© Provided by Rogers Media Inc

Seat-wise, it looks as though the Conservatives will hold on to their Quebec strongholds, mostly around the Quebec City area. The recent rise of support for the Bloc québécois has all but cut short any hope for net gains in the province. With a poor TVA debate last week, Scheer may have blown the opportunity to gain in the province.

This week’s 338Canada projection: Welcome to minority territory

  This week’s 338Canada projection: Welcome to minority territory Philippe J. Fournier: A big shift in Quebec has changed the election picture with 10 days to go. Gone are the good odds of a Liberal majority.Naturally, all of these polls paint a starkly different picture when taken individually: Angus Reid’s numbers would probably mean the Conservative are headed towards a majority (or very close to it), whereas Innovative and Nanos’ data would lead to the Liberals winning the most seats (although not necessarily a majority). Conversely, Léger and Mainstreet’s numbers would most likely translate into a hung parliament.

In Quebec , the Bloc Québécois climbs to 19.1 per cent (4.4 per cent federally). Maxime Bernier’s PPC is at 2.2 per cent. Let’s compare this popular vote projection to the In Ontario, we have a statistical tie between the Conservatives and Liberals, with the edge going to the Tories in the seat projections .

The 338 Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. Last week, we explored the current favourable CPC numbers in Quebec A new 338 Canada projection has the Tories safely in majority territory.

Here is the latest Quebec seat projection:

a screenshot of a cell phone© Provided by Rogers Media Inc

The collapse of the NDP in Quebec benefits, as of this writing, solely to the Bloc and Liberals. Let’s recall that Tom Mulcair won 25 per cent of the Quebec vote in 2015, along with 16 Quebec seats—the most in any province for the NDP. With the NDP barely polling in double digits in Quebec, all of those seats—save for Ruth Ellen Brosseau in Berthier-Maskinongé and Alexandre Boulerice in Rosemont-La Petite Patrie—will surely change colours on election day.

However, should Bloc support keep increasing into the mid- or high-20s, we could also begin to see a number of Liberal seats in danger in Quebec.

I am on the record saying that 1) Scheer needed net gains in Quebec in order to win the election, and 2) Justin Trudeau needed net gains in Quebec to win a majority. In both cases, it looks like the Bloc may get in the way.

Innovative Research poll: Who wants a minority government? Lots of Liberals. .
Support for a minority government—now the likely outcome—is at 40 per cent, with some voters in every party hoping there's no majorityWhen presented with a hypothetical scenario in which the Liberals win the most seats on Election Day, nearly one-quarter of Liberal partisans (22 per cent) said they’d rather Team Trudeau win a minority of the seats in Parliament, according to a poll done by Innovative Research Group for Maclean’s. Another six per cent of Liberal supporters said they didn’t know if they preferred a Liberal majority of minority. Among Conservative backers, 12 per cent would prefer their party to win a minority, with four per cent unsure.

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