Canada: After the Bloc's gains in Quebec, Liberals now have another worry: a climbing NDP - - PressFrom - Canada
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Canada After the Bloc's gains in Quebec, Liberals now have another worry: a climbing NDP

12:25  14 october  2019
12:25  14 october  2019 Source:   cbc.ca

A 338Canada projection: Have the Tories blown it in Quebec?

  A 338Canada projection: Have the Tories blown it in Quebec? Philippe J. Fournier: The Conservatives have fallen behind the surging Bloc, cutting the odds of seat gains needed to win the electionFor the first three weeks of the campaign, Blanchet toured Quebec and was pretty much ignored by all other federal leaders. It was not necessarily an unsound strategy: why give attention to the Bloc if it is just going to rile up Quebec sovereigntists? Best not to poke the sleeping bear, Liberals and Conservatives alike appear to be thinking.

The Liberal Party and New Democratic Party reached an accord to form a minority coalition government. The Bloc Québécois agreed to After prorogation, the Liberals underwent a change in leadership and distanced themselves from the coalition agreement, while the NDP and Bloc remained

Gains by the Bloc in Quebec are erasing the Liberals ' enduring seat advantage over the Conservatives. Who had a Bloc resurgence on their federal election bingo card? The campaign has seen one bizarre twist after another without any apparent impact on the polls — until now .

Jagmeet Singh et al. standing in front of a crowd posing for the camera: NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has boosted his party's support, according to multiple polls.© Nathan Denette / Canadian Press NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has boosted his party's support, according to multiple polls. New Democrats looking at the polls are probably feeling pretty thankful today.

That's because the NDP is having a bit of a moment. Both the Liberals and Conservatives appear to be losing steam, while the New Democrats have momentum heading into the election campaign's crucial final week.

The debates have shaken up what was a very placid campaign in the polls. After good performances in the two French-language contests, Yves-François Blanchet is on a roll of his own in Quebec, where the Bloc Québécois has eaten into the Liberals' lead in the polls and their advantage in the seat count.

Odds of a minority government rise, Liberal chances drop as Bloc surges in polls

  Odds of a minority government rise, Liberal chances drop as Bloc surges in polls Gains by the Bloc in Quebec are erasing the Liberals' enduring seat advantage over the Conservatives. But in the rural regions of Quebec and the francophone areas in and around Montreal, the Liberals had been banking on winning seats with relatively low shares of the vote, benefiting from a vote split between the Conservatives, Bloc and New Democrats.That logic no longer holds now that the Bloc has moved into first place among francophones and (as a consequence) in the regions that were being targeted by the Liberals. That has the potential to paint dozens of seats Bloc blue rather than Liberal red.

Share this story. NDP , Bloc get post-debate boost but Liberals , Conservatives still tied: poll. In Quebec , the Bloc was up nine points to 29 per cent, mostly at the expense of the Conservatives Just four per cent picked May while just one per cent thought Blanchet won and another one per cent

The Bloc Québécois , under its latest leader, is also banking on the weakness of the New Democrats under Jagmeet Singh to help it earn back official party status The Liberals have been counting on an NDP collapse to make gains in Quebec next fall. It is not a coincidence that both last week’ s cabinet

But now it seems that Singh's performance is starting to pay off. The leader who has probably done the most to improve his own personal image in the eyes of voters is now seeing it translate into new support for his party.

The CBC's Poll Tracker, an aggregation of all publicly available polling data, puts both the Conservatives and the Liberals under 33 per cent support countrywide and locked in the same close race that has prevailed throughout the campaign.

It is looking increasingly unlikely that either party will be able to win enough seats to form a majority government.

The New Democrats have jumped to 16.5 per cent support as of the Oct. 13 update of the Poll Tracker, representing a gain of two percentage points since Oct. 7 and the English-language debate (which, according to several polls, Singh won).

Scheer in Quebec, fighting against rise in support for Bloc Quebecois

  Scheer in Quebec, fighting against rise in support for Bloc Quebecois QUEBEC — Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer heads to Quebec today, a province where he's taking on not just the Liberals and NDP, but also the Bloc Quebecois. Scheer is now actively campaigning against the threat of a coalition Liberal-NDP government, bringing up the issue several times yesterday during campaign events in Winnipeg. But in Quebec, rising support for the BQ suggests that party could elect enough MPs to hold a powerful position in the event of a minority government.Scheer says the priority of the Bloc is to work towards another referendum on separation for Quebec, and discounts needing to work with them to advance the interests of Quebecers.

Anti- Quebec sentiment (French: le sentiment anti- Québécois ) is opposition or hostility expressed toward the government, culture, or the francophone people of Quebec . French-language media in Quebec have termed Quebec bashing (using the English words)

The Quebec Liberal Party (QLP; French: Parti libéral du Québec , PLQ) is a federalist provincial political party in Quebec , Canada.

Over the same time span, the Liberals have slipped nearly three points and the Conservatives more than one. Neither the Greens nor the People's Party have seen the same kind of post-debate bump that the NDP has.

That surge has been particularly obvious in the last few days. Since Oct. 9, the NDP has averaged a gain of 0.7 percentage points per day in the Poll Tracker — a significant increase in an aggregation of multiple polls that is designed to smooth out the swings from individual surveys.

Those polls are unanimous that the NDP has made gains. Ten different pollsters in the field both before and after the English-language debate have recorded a gain of at least one point for the New Democrats, though where the NDP sits in the polls does vary widely. Two pollsters pegged the NDP's support to still be as low as 13 per cent while two others have put it as high as 20 per cent.

NDP putting pressure on Liberal seats

The NDP has seen gains in the Poll Tracker in every region of the country, but it has seen its biggest bumps in Quebec, Atlantic Canada and the Prairies. Notably, the increase of five points in Atlantic Canada has pushed the NDP back into third place and ahead of the Greens.

Bernier surprised by Bloc's popularity, says People's party more nationalistic

  Bernier surprised by Bloc's popularity, says People's party more nationalistic QUEBEC — People's Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier says he's a bit surprised by the popularity of the Bloc Quebecois and its leader, Yves-Francois Blanchet. Bernier told reporters Friday if Quebecers knew more about his party, they might be less inclined to vote Bloc. The PPC leader said his policies are as nationalistic, if not more, than those of Blanchet. Bernier said a PPC government would reduce immigration and ensure Quebec gets to choose which newcomers it would accept.

We are Canada’ s New Democrats. Investing in a Canada where people can realize their full potential and pursue their dreams. Thank you for signing up and standing with the NDP for a better Canada.

The Bloc and the Liberals are now statistically tied at around 30 per cent; however, in the Quebec City region, the Bloc is back on top, after losing their lead in "This event will allow us to turn the page on past frictions. Because there' s one incontrovertible fact: we can't make gains in Quebec without the

It now means the NDP — while still on track to lose nearly all of its seats in Quebec — could actually gain seats in the rest of the country, largely at the expense of the Liberals.

The Ontario numbers should be of particular concern for that party.

The New Democrats are polling at 17 per cent in the province, slightly better than the party's results in the 2015 federal election. That could win the NDP more seats in Ontario, because the Liberals are polling at 37 per cent in the province, down eight points from the last vote.

That kind of swing puts a number of Liberal seats at risk in Ontario. The Poll Tracker estimates there are 10 close Liberal-NDP contests in the province, including three in central Toronto and five in northern Ontario. The Liberals can't afford to lose those seats to the New Democrats when they are also trying to fight off the Conservatives in suburban Greater Toronto Area seats that the Liberals picked up four years ago.

Singh's campaign boosting the NDP

The credit for this shift has to lie with Singh. Polls are recording significant improvement in how Canadians view the NDP leader.

Bloc Quebecois make gains in early election results, confirming party's resurgence

  Bloc Quebecois make gains in early election results, confirming party's resurgence MONTREAL — Early election returns are indicating a Bloc Quebecois resurgence in Quebec, with the party leading in more than 30 ridings. One hour after polls closed in the province, the party was elected or leading in 34 of the province's 78 ridings, a significant leap from the 10 it won last election. One hour after polls closed in the province, the party was elected or leading in 34 of the province's 78 ridings, a significant leap from the 10 it won last election.

For the record, I think this coalition (the Liberal - NDP coalition, not the football one) is the stupidest idea It’ s been a successful argument for a half-century – Liberals have won election after election Given the ongoing stress and expense of dealing with these interminable, idiotic Quebec -Canada tiffs

The New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois agree on most issues, and they're both close to the labour movement. But even the best of friends can Under Mr. Layton' s leadership, the NDP has made significant gains in Quebec . It won 4.6 per cent of the vote in 2004 (up from 1.2 per cent in 2000), 7.5

According to Abacus Data, 41 per cent of Canadians now have a positive impression of Singh. That's up nine points since before the English-language debate and 15 points since the beginning of the campaign.

Just 22 per cent of respondents say they hold a negative impression of Singh, giving him a net rating of +19. That compares quite well to Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer's net -17 score and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau's -16.

Other polls have registered similar jolts in Singh's personal approval ratings. Nanos Research has found that Singh has more than doubled the proportion of Canadians who choose him as the best person to be prime minister. That number is now similar to the share of Canadians who intend to vote for the NDP. At the outset of the campaign, Singh trailed his party by a wide margin — he's now an asset rather than a liability.

So the pressure will be on Singh to keep the good times going for one more week — fending off the attacks from his rivals and surviving the extra scrutiny that comes with suddenly becoming an influential player in an election campaign.

For the Liberals, a perfect storm is in the making. Their re-election strategy rested on Quebecers and urban progressives. Gains by the Bloc and now the New Democrats are starting to chip away at the two pillars of that strategy.

How vote-splitting helped — and hurt — the federal parties .
Vote-splitting is at the heart of many heated election season discussions of strategic voting. It's often cited by Liberals late in election campaigns as a reason for progressive voters to rally around their party. Vote NDP or Bloc or Green, the argument goes, and you may elect a Conservative.It's most often cited by Liberals late in campaigns as a reason for progressive voters to rally around their party. Vote NDP or Bloc or Green, the argument goes, and you may end up electing a Conservative.

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