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Canada This week’s 338Canada projection: ‘Prime Minister Andrew Scheer’?

16:50  15 october  2019
16:50  15 october  2019 Source:   macleans.ca

A 338Canada projection: Have the Tories blown it in Quebec?

  A 338Canada projection: Have the Tories blown it in Quebec? Philippe J. Fournier: The Conservatives have fallen behind the surging Bloc, cutting the odds of seat gains needed to win the electionFor the first three weeks of the campaign, Blanchet toured Quebec and was pretty much ignored by all other federal leaders. It was not necessarily an unsound strategy: why give attention to the Bloc if it is just going to rile up Quebec sovereigntists? Best not to poke the sleeping bear, Liberals and Conservatives alike appear to be thinking.

Philippe J. Fournier: The 2015 Trudeau coalition may be falling apart as the NDP and Bloc surge. It has left the Conservatives with the slightest edge.

Had Scheer requested to shed his second citizenship two years ago when becoming Conservative leader, we wouldn’t be on the potential—and largely inconsequential (but boy, will it get the folks talking)—verge of electing This week ’ s 338 Canada projection : Unfortunately, Alberta won’t matter.

Scheer attends a rally in Langley, B.C., on Oct. 11, 2019 (Darryl Dyck/Bloomberg via Getty Images)© Used with permission of / © St. Joseph Communications. Scheer attends a rally in Langley, B.C., on Oct. 11, 2019 (Darryl Dyck/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The next time someone tells you leaders debates do not matter in a campaign, you’ll be able to point towards this 2019 federal election.

While voting intentions had remained mostly stable for the first half of the campaign, it appears Canadians have payed close attention to the leaders’ debates. In the past two weeks, pollsters have measured two distinct movements in voting intentions in the country:

  • First, in the days that followed the first French debate on the TVA network, Conservatives have dropped 5 to 7 points in the province on average—basically rendering their chances of net gains in Quebec next to zero. Diametrically, the Bloc Québécois has gone from polling in the high teens to the high 20s over the same period—some polls have even placed the Bloc above the 30 per cent threshold in Quebec, which, if it materializes next Monday, would be a first since the 2008 election. Now the question in Quebec is whether the Bloc can overtake the Liberals in first place.
  • Second, the following week saw the commission’s leaders debates in which many observers noted that Jagmeet Singh had offered a laudable performance. The question on forecasters’ minds was whether Singh’s conduct could translate into increased support. As of this writing, the answer has been overwhelmingly positive: five polls published after the debates measured NDP support between 17 and 20 per cent nationally—significantly better than last week’s average of 14 per cent. In the latest poll from Abacus Data, Jagmeet Singh’s positive impression rating has jumped a staggering 10 points (from 31 to 41 per cent) since late September.

Here is a look at the political landscape exactly one week from the 43rd Canadian federal election. The federal polls are listed here. For details on the 338Canada methodology, follow this link.

A 338Canada projection: If proportional representation was real

  A 338Canada projection: If proportional representation was real Philippe J. Fournier: How would this tight election end if Trudeau had kept his electoral reform promise? With three powerful parties, for starters.I thought it would be interesting to follow up on this column I wrote for Maclean’s last spring, in which I simulated how voting intentions then would translate into a regional proportional representation.

Philippe J. Fournier: A regional breakdown of the results across the country this week point to tight race and a minority government scenario.

Philippe J. Fournier: The race remains deadlocked, with Andrew Scheer ’ s ongoing slide in Ontario clouding the Conservatives’ chances.

The Conservatives and Liberals remain in a statistical tie in the popular vote projection again this week with the slightest of edges going to the Tories. However, it is important to note that both parties have shed support since the commission debates:

a screenshot of a cell phone© Provided by Rogers Media Inc

Indeed, both the Liberals and Conservatives were hovering around the 34 to 35 per cent mark before the debates. The Conservatives’ average now stands at 33 per cent and the Liberals’, 31 per cent. Meanwhile, the NDP, whose average stood at barely 11 per cent two weeks ago has been gaining support and now stands at an average of 16 per cent nationally.

The NDP gaining support in both Ontario and British Columbia and the Bloc regaining relevance in Quebec must be what Liberal nightmares are made of. While the Conservative base of 31 to 33 per cent appears rock solid, all these numbers indicate that the 2015 Trudeau coalition may be falling apart.

Scheer says he expects the leader with most seats will form government

  Scheer says he expects the leader with most seats will form government Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer said on Wednesday night that he expects that all parties "will respect the fact" that whoever wins the most seats on Oct. 21 will be the one to form government.Speaking to CTV's Chief News Anchor Lisa LaFlamme, Scheer said "we would expect that other parties would respect the fact that whichever party wins the most seats gets to form the government and that they will understand that if Canadians — when Canadians endorse our platform, we will have the right to implement it.

Since the TVA debate last week , the NDP has also grown its national support and has distanced itself from the Greens. Notice how the Bloc surge on the right coincides with the Conservative slide, which happened right after the TVA debate. Evidently, Scheer ’ s poor performance that night did not go

After last October’ s federal election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau went on a national tour to meet the country’ s premiers in This past week , EKOS released its own Ontario voting intentions, and the OLP, whose leadership race is still The year-end 338 Canada projection : Nowhere to go for the Liberals.

Here is the national seat projection:

a screenshot of a cell phone© Provided by Rogers Media Inc

Regular readers of this column will notice that the confidence intervals (coloured bars) of the LPC and CPC have gotten ridiculously large—and they would be correct. With both parties averaging barely 135 seats apiece, the 338Canada model has no fewer than 139 of 338 electoral districts labeled as either “toss up” or “leaning”—meaning more than a third of all ridings remain too close to call. (See full list of toss up and leaning ridings here.)

Another way to visualize the projection’s uncertainty is to graph the probability density of the seat projections:

a close up of a map© Provided by Rogers Media Inc

On the graph above, each column is a potential seat total; the higher the bar, the higher the odds. Since these curves closely follow a Gaussian distribution, the results near the middle of the curve are more likely to happen than the extremes. And, as you can see above, the two bell curves overlap each other almost perfectly.

Innovative Research poll: Who wants a minority government? Lots of Liberals.

  Innovative Research poll: Who wants a minority government? Lots of Liberals. Support for a minority government—now the likely outcome—is at 40 per cent, with some voters in every party hoping there's no majorityWhen presented with a hypothetical scenario in which the Liberals win the most seats on Election Day, nearly one-quarter of Liberal partisans (22 per cent) said they’d rather Team Trudeau win a minority of the seats in Parliament, according to a poll done by Innovative Research Group for Maclean’s. Another six per cent of Liberal supporters said they didn’t know if they preferred a Liberal majority of minority. Among Conservative backers, 12 per cent would prefer their party to win a minority, with four per cent unsure.

Canada’ s federal election is a week away, and if incumbent Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau loses it’ s looking like Conservative leader Andrew Scheer will be the one to take him out. According to the CBC poll tracker, the Liberals and Conservatives are at 31 and 32 percent respectively in terms of

The 338 projection falls almost right in the middle of last week ’ s diverging numbers. In 2015 when Justin Trudeau was elected Prime Minister , New Brunswick, P.E.I, Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia were all Has the figurative pendulum swung all the way just in time for Andrew Scheer ?

Moreover, since both parties’ averages stand below 140 seats, it means that, according to current numbers, the probability of a majority government have decreased significantly. A “weak minority” scenario, with both the Liberals and Conservatives below 140 seats (and where not a single party holds the balance of power) appears to be more and more plausible.

In a campaign, momentum is hard to build and hard to stop when it gets in motion (as a physicist, I am tempted to bring up Newton’s second law of motion, but I digress). Should the Bloc Québécois and the NDP keep increasing their support over the next seven days, it will most likely hurt the Liberal seat projection more than the Conservatives’. Hence, Andrew Scheer could become Canada’s 24th Prime Minister…

… should he and his Conservative MPs manage to win confidence of the House, which will be no small feat. But more on this hypothetical scenario in another column.

MORE ABOUT FEDERAL ELECTION 2019:

  • The best days of Andrew Scheer’s campaign
  • The ‘excessively violent’ election ad, paid for by the Manning Centre
  • For the Tories, Peter MacKay is more than just a face in the crowd
  • This week’s 338Canada projection: Welcome to minority territory

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