Canada: Election 2019: What happens if it's a minority government? - - PressFrom - Canada
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Canada Election 2019: What happens if it's a minority government?

19:25  18 october  2019
19:25  18 october  2019 Source:   montrealgazette.com

Roy Green: What if the federal election delivers a minority government?

  Roy Green: What if the federal election delivers a minority government? Roy Green: What if the federal election delivers a minority government?In recent Canadian history, many saw the election of successive minority federal governments as an effective tool to manage the nation's affairs.

What happens if no party wins a majority of seats? Minority possibilities, explained. There are a few scenarios that could unfold, but first it ’ s important to establish that there is no real rule book for how these post- election talks can go, just historical convention and precedent.

Next Monday night Canadians should know the winner of the 2019 federal election . The party that holds power in the House of Commons not only has to gain a plurality of seats, they also need the full confidence of the legislature. It ’ s been eight years since Canada last saw a minority government , with.

a large tall tower with a clock at the top of a flag: The Liberals were hoping to increase their seats in Quebec from 40 to around 50 or 55, at the expense of the NDP, but the Bloc appears to be eating into those plans.© Blair Gable The Liberals were hoping to increase their seats in Quebec from 40 to around 50 or 55, at the expense of the NDP, but the Bloc appears to be eating into those plans.

With polls showing the Liberals and Conservatives in a dead heat, thanks in part to Quebec’s volatile electorate, the possibility of a minority government is looming.

The political phenomena is relatively rare, but not unheard of. Canada has had 12 minority governments in its history, Quebec just three, most of them short-lived.

It’s time for a refresher on how a minority government works, and how things could play out after Oct. 21.

What is a minority government?

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What happens if the government loses the confidence of the House of Commons? It seems unlikely the Liberals would keep a Conservative minority alive, though it has happened before in 2008. The NDP have already said they would not prop up the Tories, while the Greens and Conservatives are far

It could also potentially hinder growth in oil, a key industry for Canada, one of the world’ s largest energy exporters. “The only potentially meaningful outcome appears to be a minority government versus a majority government .” Since 1935, Canadian stocks have returned on average 12% in the 12 months

A: It occurs when no party wins more than half the seats. With 338 ridings up for grabs in the federal election, a party would have to win 170 seats to form a majority.

The latest polls show the Conservatives and Liberals each garnering about 31 per cent support nationally. The Conservatives are slightly ahead in seat projections, with 338.com forecasting Andrew Scheer’s party will win 133 seats and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals 132. Pollsters caution nearly one-third of the ridings remain too close to call, so the margin of error is large.

If the Conservatives win the most seats, is Scheer the next prime minister?

A: Not necessarily, despite what he’s been saying this week. Political convention holds that the party with the most seats forms the government. But it’s not required under the Constitution. In a close race, the Liberals, even if they win fewer seats, could seek support from other parties to show they have the confidence of the majority of the members of the House of Commons. That is the sole criterion required in a parliamentary system to retain power.

Innovative Research poll: Who wants a minority government? Lots of Liberals.

  Innovative Research poll: Who wants a minority government? Lots of Liberals. Support for a minority government—now the likely outcome—is at 40 per cent, with some voters in every party hoping there's no majorityWhen presented with a hypothetical scenario in which the Liberals win the most seats on Election Day, nearly one-quarter of Liberal partisans (22 per cent) said they’d rather Team Trudeau win a minority of the seats in Parliament, according to a poll done by Innovative Research Group for Maclean’s. Another six per cent of Liberal supporters said they didn’t know if they preferred a Liberal majority of minority. Among Conservative backers, 12 per cent would prefer their party to win a minority, with four per cent unsure.

It doesn't mean that it ' s anti-democratic. It ' s just a different way of doing democracy." Harper's minority government passed motions to extend Canada's mission in Afghanistan and passed the Federal Accountability Act, which, among other things, changed election financing rules and created

It ’ s an aggregate poll. So for instance, Grenier has weighted the most recent CTV/Nanos poll at 25 That is what happened . In a close election , national polls cannot account for the 500+ electoral With just a week to go before Canadians cast their ballots, the prospect of a minority government

It happened in British Columbia in 2017 when the Liberals under Christy Clark won with two more seats than the NDP. When the Liberals lost a confidence vote in the legislature, Clark asked the lieutenant-governor for a new election. But the NDP crafted an agreement with the Green Party, giving it the confidence of the majority. The lieutenant-governor instead invited NDP Leader John Horgan to form a government.

If the Liberals get the most seats, does Trudeau stay on as prime minister?

A: Not necessarily. The Liberal Party can either try to get the support of one or more parties to ensure it wins a confidence vote in the House, or it can try to govern without a formal agreement. If Trudeau does not win the confidence of the House, he can either resign or ask the governor-general for a new election. The governor-general could accept, or ask another leader, like Scheer, to form the government, as happened with Clark in B.C. The Conservatives can also try to form alliances and show the governor-general they have the confidence of the majority of the House, rather than Trudeau.

Coalition or minority government: What strategists say their party would do

  Coalition or minority government: What strategists say their party would do The West Block’s Mercedes Stephenson sat down with strategists to discuss what could happen if their party isn't chosen to form a majority government come election day.Polling shows the results of Monday's election resting on a knife's edge, suggesting that Canadians would most likely elect a minority government.

Except, it appears, if it ’ s Canada and you happen to be Justin Trudeau. Once again, as voters ponder how to mark their ballots come Monday’s election Koreans have given the phenomenon a name. WatchThe players who would be king: A look at six scenarios for a minority government after the

What happens if the government loses the confidence of the House of Commons? 21 election , the Governor General might instead decide to invite the leader of the party with the second-most Talk of a possible Liberal-NDP deal in the event of a Liberal minority overshadowed Thanksgiving weekend

The resumption of Parliament could be postponed for weeks or months while the Liberals try to broker an agreement with the NDP or the Green Party or both to ensure they will back him on a confidence vote, in return for concessions on their demands, in what’s known as a confidence and supply agreement. That’s how universal health care came about in the 1960s under the minority Liberal government of Lester Pearson, notes Hugo Cyr, dean of the faculty of political science and law at the Université du Québec à Montréal. “Or he could do what (Liberal leader) Paul Martin did in 2004 and just take his chances and negotiate on a case-by-case basis,” Cyr said.

How big a part has Quebec played in the minority government scenario?

A: A lot. “The rise of the Bloc Québécois in Quebec, which many people didn’t anticipate, came from them scoring points on Bill 21 and surfing on the popularity of (Quebec Premier) François Legault,” says Daniel Béland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada .

The Liberals were hoping to increase their seats in Quebec from 40 to around 50 or 55, at the expense of the NDP, but the Bloc appears to be eating into those plans. The Bloc’s rise hasn’t been good for the Conservatives, either.

History says minority governments can succeed: Brandon University professor

  History says minority governments can succeed: Brandon University professor Political science professor Kelly Saunders says a minority government's success or failure depends on how willing leaders are to work together. "We've had minority governments in the past and we always point back to the (Lester) Pearson years, where we got a lot of stuff done," Saunders said.Pearson, Canada's 14th prime minister, led two back-to-back minority governments from 1963 to 1968.© Getty The Prime Minister of Canada, Lester Pearson is shown closeup as he is seated at a desk going through papers.

In Israel, minority governments are rare. The few cases of minority governments took place after one or more factions withdrew from a coalition And no minority government has ever been formed immediately following elections . The plenum hall of the Knesset during the opening ceremony of the

When minority governments returned to the federal scene after the 2004 election , there was general confusion and unfamiliarity about the constitutional traditions and rules of minority government . Although the experiences of the successive Paul Martin and Stephen Harper minority governments

What kind of party alliances could we see under a minority government?

‘This is the first step’: Scheer delivers concession speech, praises Tory election performance

  ‘This is the first step’: Scheer delivers concession speech, praises Tory election performance Scheer said he has called Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to congratulate him on his victory. However, Scheer also reacted to the Liberals' loss of a majority government, suggesting it indicates Trudeau's time as prime minister may not last long."Mr. Trudeau, when your government falls, Conservatives will be ready and we will win," he said. READ MORE: Live Canada election results 2019: Real-time results in the federal election Scheer also boasted that the party is leading the popular vote over the Liberals."This is how it starts," he said. "This is the first step.

Philippe Legassé explains what happens if the election outcome is close—including how Andrew 21, speculation about minority scenarios is rampant around the federal election campaign. The incoming government looks at the state of the Parliament as it ’ s coming together and realizes that

The election is over, the Coalition has won the most seats. But we don't yet know if it will form a majority or a minority government . Here' s what happens next.

A: “It will be harder for the Conservatives to form alliances because all of the other parties are more left of centre,” Béland said. “Who do you strike alliances with without moving way beyond your comfort zone in terms of public policy?” The Conservatives and Bloc could come to agreements on decentralizing power, but they remain far apart on the environment and fiscal policy. Not to mention that prime minister Stephen Harper condemned the Liberals and NDP for attempting to form what he called “an unholy alliance” with the separatist Bloc Québécois in 2008 to overtake the Conservatives. “That could come back to haunt (the Conservatives) today,” Cyr said. Still, possible alliances appear to be coalescing along two lines: “A Red-Orange-Green line, or a Blue line,” Cyr said, referring to the colours, respectively, of the Liberals, NDP and the Greens, and the Conservatives and Bloc.

“For the Liberals it would be far easier for Trudeau to work with Jagmeet Singh and the NDP because they are more ideologically aligned, they could strike deals on a number of things,” Béland said. “But it will create resentment in places like Alberta and Saskatchewan where the Liberals and NDP are very weak, particularly in their stances on energy and the environment.”

Will a minority government be short-lived?

A: Not necessarily. The electorate is not fond of being rushed back to the voting booth, and any party that brings down the minority government “could pay a price at the following elections,” Béland noted. They typically last two to three years.

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Liberal minority may not have been Bay Street's first choice, but investors should like the results anyway .
Many on Bay Street may have been hoping for a Conservative majority in the 2019 federal election, but if history serves as a guide, the outcome should suit investors just fine — at least in the short term. On Monday, voters returned Justin Trudeau’s Liberals to government, albeit with a reduced minority mandate. On Monday, voters returned Justin Trudeau’s Liberals to government, albeit with a reduced minority mandate. Historically, it turns out, markets have initially performed much better in the wake of a Liberal minority victory than the Conservative equivalent.

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