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Canada NDP sees surge of support from B.C. voters in election's final days, poll finds

00:10  19 october  2019
00:10  19 october  2019 Source:   cbc.ca

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With just days left before final ballots are cast in the federal election, a new poll released Friday says the NDP has seen a surge of support among voters in British Columbia.

The survey, conducted online by Insights West, asked 1,670 adults living in B.C. who they would vote for in their constituency, if they had to vote that day. They were surveyed between Sunday and Wednesday.

If they had already cast their ballot during advance voting or by mail, they were asked to select the party for which they voted.

Results found the NDP pushed ahead of the Liberals for second place in B.C., with 23 per cent of voter support — up from 14 per cent in an earlier Insights West poll from mid-September. The Conservative Party still holds a steady lead in the province, the survey said, with 27 per cent of voter support.

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The CBC News Poll Tracker is your guide to following the polls in the 2019 Canadian federal election . IVR: Polls conducted via interactive voice response, in which recorded questions are played for randomly-dialled respondents and answers are given via the telephone keypad.

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a group of people standing in front of a crowd: NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh greets supporters during a campaign stop in Nanaimo, B.C., on Friday. © Provided by Canadian Broadcasting Corporation NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh greets supporters during a campaign stop in Nanaimo, B.C., on Friday.

The poll found support for the Green Party has dropped from 14 per cent in mid-September to 11 per cent. The poll did not present the Bloc Quebecois or People's Party of Canada as options.

Just over a quarter of those polled said they were choosing "the best of the worst" option, with another 22 per cent saying they were casting their ballot for one party simply to prevent victory for another party they like less.

The survey was the third and final poll of the election campaign from Insights West. The research company ran its first poll from Sept. 6 to 10 and its second from Sept. 19 to 23.

a screenshot of a cell phone: The latest poll from Insights West shows the NDP overtaking the Liberals among B.C. voters, moving into second place behind the Conservatives.© Provided by Canadian Broadcasting Corporation The latest poll from Insights West shows the NDP overtaking the Liberals among B.C. voters, moving into second place behind the Conservatives.

NDP support strong among younger voters: poll

A statement Friday from Insights West said the New Democrats' breakthrough appears to have come from women, younger voters and those voting from the coastal areas of Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island.

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The big factor, the statement said, will be voter turnout: Nearly 80 per cent of Conservative voters said they were absolutely certain they will vote blue on Monday, but those who said they intended to support NDP and Liberal were less confident their vote would not change.

"Conservative voter turnout is something that party can bank on much more so than any other party," Steve Mossop, president of Insights West, wrote in the statement.

Follow the leaders

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh campaigned across Vancouver Island Friday, in a head-to-head fight with Green Leader Elizabeth May. The NDP has been dominant on the island, but the Greens have two seats and the party is looking for more.

Other opinion polls continue to suggest the Liberals and Conservatives are deadlocked ahead of election day Monday, raising talk about potential minority or coalition governments.

Scheer campaigned Friday in Fredericton, where he said — without citing specific evidence — that a potential coalition between the Liberals and the NDP might lead to a hike in the GST.

Trudeau addressed the statement at his own event in Whitby, Ont., saying the claim was "entirely untrue." Singh told reporters Scheer was lying about the tax hike.

The margin of error for the Insights West poll, which measures sample variability, is +/- 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The statement said discrepancies between totals are due to rounding. Find the data tabulation here.

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