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Canada The final 338Canada projection: The most uncertain federal election in decades

07:21  21 october  2019
07:21  21 october  2019 Source:   macleans.ca

This week’s 338Canada projection: Welcome to minority territory

  This week’s 338Canada projection: Welcome to minority territory Philippe J. Fournier: A big shift in Quebec has changed the election picture with 10 days to go. Gone are the good odds of a Liberal majority.Naturally, all of these polls paint a starkly different picture when taken individually: Angus Reid’s numbers would probably mean the Conservative are headed towards a majority (or very close to it), whereas Innovative and Nanos’ data would lead to the Liberals winning the most seats (although not necessarily a majority). Conversely, Léger and Mainstreet’s numbers would most likely translate into a hung parliament.

The 2019 Canadian federal election (formally the 43rd Canadian general election ) is scheduled to take place on October 21, 2019, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 43rd Canadian

The 338 Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. Federal projections will be regularly updated until the 43rd Canadian federal elections , scheduled for October 21st 2019.

(Provided y Global News)

Well, here we are. The day before election day. A flurry of polls have been published in the last 24 hours, and many more will probably come later tonight.

Here is the national 338Canada popular vote projection for Oct. 20, 2019. The latest polls from five polling firms are indicated by black dots:

[NA: Nanos Research; IP: Ipsos; CR: Campaign Research; LE: Léger; AD: Abacus Data]

a screenshot of a cell phone© Provided by Rogers Media Inc Both the Liberals and the Conservatives find themselves in a deadlock at around 32 per cent apiece. The NDP has gained significant ground since the Commission debates, but has plateaued in the last few days. The Greens have slipped below 10 per cent.

This week’s 338Canada projection: ‘Prime Minister Andrew Scheer’?

  This week’s 338Canada projection: ‘Prime Minister Andrew Scheer’? Philippe J. Fournier: The 2015 Trudeau coalition may be falling apart as the NDP and Bloc surge. It has left the Conservatives with the slightest edge.While voting intentions had remained mostly stable for the first half of the campaign, it appears Canadians have payed close attention to the leaders’ debates.

Federal Election . Monday, October 21. More info (main website). Election security. Useful material. Voting hours across Canada. Canada Elections Act (Justice Laws website).

The 2015 Canadian federal election (formally the 42nd Canadian general election ) was held on October 19, 2015, to elect members to the House of Commons of the 42nd Canadian Parliament.

In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois will battle the Liberals for first place and currently stand at an average of 30 per cent in the province.

Jagmeet Singh et al. standing on a stage: Jagmeet Singh attends a campaign rally in Vancouver on Oct. 19, 2019 (Darryl Dyck/Bloomberg via Getty Images)© Used with permission of / © St. Joseph Communications. Jagmeet Singh attends a campaign rally in Vancouver on Oct. 19, 2019 (Darryl Dyck/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Finally, Maxime Bernier’s PPC never really took off—even with Bernier’s participation at the debates—and ends this 2019 campaign at an average of just below 3 per cent nationally.

Let’s look at how this level of support translates into seats. Naturally, we should keep in mind that seat projections contain a fair amount of uncertainty, and the numbers below should be considered as averages only. They can/will be a little off from tomorrow’s results, but they also should give us a clearer view of the political landscape…

A 338Canada projection: If proportional representation was real

  A 338Canada projection: If proportional representation was real Philippe J. Fournier: How would this tight election end if Trudeau had kept his electoral reform promise? With three powerful parties, for starters.I thought it would be interesting to follow up on this column I wrote for Maclean’s last spring, in which I simulated how voting intentions then would translate into a regional proportional representation.

Many in Canada still hold the narrative that the Liberals dominate voting intentions in Quebec, when in fact It is in Ontario where the seat projection is the most uncertain , with confidence intervals in the ±30 seats If an election were held today, the result would most likely (but not assuredly) lead to a

With 169 days until the federal election , here is the 338 Canada electoral projection for May 5th 2019. The higher the bars, the more likely the outcome: The NDP climbs modestly this week in the seat projection , which is more But recent provincial elections in Ontario, Quebec and Alberta lead

… unless polls are wrong by significant margins of course, but more of this later.

Let’s go from east to west.

Atlantic Provinces

The 2015 Liberal Atlantic sweep will most likely not repeat, but the LPC is still projected ahead by double digits in the region. Barring some late movement, the Liberals should win at least 20 seats in Atlantic Canada. On average, the Liberal Atlantic seat count is 24.

a screenshot of a cell phone© Provided by Rogers Media Inc

[Numbers may not add up to 32 seats due to rounding.]

We expect the Conservatives to make some gains in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. The NDP has high hopes in St. John’s East and could cause a surprise in Halifax.

Quebec

The story of this election in Quebec is the surge of the Bloc Québécois shortly after the first French debate. At first, the Bloc ate into Conservative support in the province. Then the Liberals also lost ground. Polls in Quebec show that the Liberals and Bloc remain in a near tie in voting intentions, but the Bloc is first among francophones.

Innovative Research poll: Who wants a minority government? Lots of Liberals.

  Innovative Research poll: Who wants a minority government? Lots of Liberals. Support for a minority government—now the likely outcome—is at 40 per cent, with some voters in every party hoping there's no majorityWhen presented with a hypothetical scenario in which the Liberals win the most seats on Election Day, nearly one-quarter of Liberal partisans (22 per cent) said they’d rather Team Trudeau win a minority of the seats in Parliament, according to a poll done by Innovative Research Group for Maclean’s. Another six per cent of Liberal supporters said they didn’t know if they preferred a Liberal majority of minority. Among Conservative backers, 12 per cent would prefer their party to win a minority, with four per cent unsure.

Here are the seat projections in Canada: Over the course of 250,000 general election simulations, the Liberal Party wins an average of 165 seats Nevertheless, with the data that is currently available, the 338 Canada electoral model measures that the Liberals are two-to-one favourite to win the most seats

Canada holds elections for legislatures or governments in several jurisdictions: nationally ( federally ), provincially and territorially, and municipally.

a screenshot of a social media post© Provided by Rogers Media Inc

Questions remain whether the Conservatives will lose some of their seats in the Quebec City region, where the party performs at its best in the province. The NDP, which won 16 Quebec seats in 2015, should be reduced to only one or two seats (see Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie and Berthier-Maskinongé).

Obviously, Beauce should also be interesting.

Ontario

In 2015, the Liberals won 80 Ontario seats, including a whopping 49 of 55 seats in Toronto and the GTA-905 combined. That total could be hard to replicate for the Liberals, but the latest numbers all show the LPC ahead in the province—although they disagree by how much.

a screenshot of a cell phone© Provided by Rogers Media Inc

On election night, if we see the Liberals below 60 seats in Ontario, it could be a sign that the Conservatives are headed towards victory.

Manitoba and Saskatchewan

The Liberals won all 8 Winnipeg seats in 2015, along with Ralph Goodale’s Regina-Wascana riding in Saskatchewan. However, the Liberals will be fighting to win even half that total in the Prairies.

a screenshot of a cell phone© Provided by Rogers Media Inc

The Conservatives are polling high in the region and should make net gains compared to 2015.

How Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer could both lose

  How Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer could both lose Without a majority, both the Liberal and Conservative leaders will have failed in key ways, and their parties could push for change.If we finish the day, as seems likely, with a weakened Liberal government, the leaders of both of our big parties will be seen to have lost the election and face uncertain futures in their jobs.

We add these new numbers to the pile and present today this 338 Canada federal projection update. This polling discrepancy in Canada’s most populous province is partially to blame for this It would be mathematically impossible for the Conservatives to win the election if they lose Ontario by

There has been significant movement in the seat projections in the last few days and, as we enter the final stretch of the 2019 federal election campaign, the prospect of a Let’s dive right into it and recap the most recent numbers: The Angus Reid Institute published its post-English debate numbers

Alberta

In 2015, the Conservatives won “only” 29 of the Alberta’s 34 federal seats. The Liberals won two seats in both Edmonton and Calgary (and some by very tight margins).

Numbers for months have shown that the Conservatives were poised for a sweep of the province, and it could still very well happen. The only question mark is Edmonton-Strathcona, where the NDP is currently projected ahead by a hair (it is still projected as a toss up).

a screenshot of a cell phone© Provided by Rogers Media Inc

British Columbia

British Columbia remains an enigma: Canadian pollsters show very different measures of support for the major parties and, even as the campaign winds down, numbers have not converged towards a consensus. For that reason, you will notice the ridiculously large error bars on the graph:

a screenshot of a cell phone© Provided by Rogers Media Inc

These wide error bars are not a bug of the model—they reflect the high uncertainty that results when one poll shows the Conservatives leading in the province (Ipsos), others show a statistical tie (Campaign, Léger, Nanos) and others have the Liberals in the lead (Abacus Data). What we can say about B.C. remains vague: 1) the Conservatives should perform well in most rural areas; 2) The Liberals and NDP will be competitive in many Vancouver ridings, and 3) The Greens will hope to expand their base on Vancouver Island.

Google predicted the 2015 election. Here’s what it says about election 2019.

  Google predicted the 2015 election. Here’s what it says about election 2019. Jason Kirby: If Google search interest in the leaders can predict how Canadians vote, Jagmeet Singh will be the story of this electionLet me back up for one second.

Here are the publicly available federal polls published in July compared to the 338 Canada ’s If these numbers were to hold until election day, the model’s final projection would simply be too close to Conversely, the Conservatives simply cannot expect to win the most seats in Canada if they do not

Here is 338 Canada /Maclean’s federal projection for June 16th, 2019. Popular Vote Projection . According to this week’s numbers, the Conservatives win the most seats in about three quarters of In the Lower Mainland, there are several highly uncertain three-way races between the Liberals, NDP

In Conclusion

I do not know who will win tomorrow’s election. The data that’s been made available suggest that we could have the first popular vote and seat split in 40 years (in 1979, Joe Clark won the most seats under the Progressive Conservative banner despite losing the popular vote to Pierre Trudeau’s Liberals by as much as four points nationally). This time, it appears more likely that the Liberals will win the most seats while the Conservatives earn the most votes.

The most likely scenario appears to be a Liberal-led minority, but the odds are so close and the number of toss up districts so high, that I am not ready to make that call. In each of the three provincial elections I have covered, a clear favourite had emerged by the time campaigns were coming to an end. In Ontario and Quebec in 2018, Ford’s PC and Legault’s CAQ were 9-to-1 favourites heading into election day. In Alberta last April, Jason Kenney’s UCP was a 25-to-1 favourite to win the election.

We have no such certainty as of tonight, although a minority scenario appears far more likely than any majority.

Does either party have a path to a majority? Yes, they do, but the data would have to be wrong.

For the Liberals to win a majority, they would have to outperform in Quebec—perhaps hoping the Bloc cannot get its vote out tomorrow. Also, the Liberal party would have to actually increase its seat count in Ontario (80 seats in 2015), which appears unlikely considering the Liberals won 45 per cent of the popular vote in the province four years ago. As of this writing, the Liberals’ poll average in Ontario stands just below 40 per cent.

Federal election ballots are still counted by hand. It could be a long night.

  Federal election ballots are still counted by hand. It could be a long night. Campaigns may have gone high tech, but votes are still counted the old fashioned way—one by one on folded paper ballotsThis is Andrew Scheer. AS A HOLOGRAM. Wut? #elxn43 Election night is gonna be lit. pic.twitter.

The CBC News Poll Tracker is your guide to following the polls in the 2019 Canadian federal election . NET: Polls conducted via the Internet. In most cases, respondents come from a panel of Canadians recruited in various ways, including over the telephone.

Election 43 will also see the largest number of female candidates running ever, with 651 female candidates across all parties. But amid a push for governments around the world do to more the tackle the issue, climate change has been dominating as one of the issues that matters most to voters.

For the Conservatives to win a majority, they would have to completely sweep the West: at least 25 in B.C., virtually all of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba as well as split Ontario down the middle. It’s not impossible, but it’s highly unlikely given the numbers that were published in the past two days.

We will know Tuesday. Go vote. Thanks to all 338Canada readers who followed along for the ride.

Find the projection for your home district below:

  • Atlantic Provinces, 32 districts
    • Newfoundland and Labrador, 7 districts
    • Prince Edward Island, 4 districts
    • Nova Scotia, 11 districts
    • New Brunswick, 10 districts
  • Québec, 78 districts
    • Island of Montreal, 18 districts
    • Laval & 450, 22 districts
    • Quebec City & Chaudière-Appalaches, 11 districts
    • Centre of Quebec & Eastern Townships, 8 districts
    • Laurentides-Lanaudières-Mauricie, 6 districts
    • Western Quebec, 5 districts
    • Eastern & Northern Quebec, 8 districts
  • Ontario, 121 districts
    • Toronto, 25 districts
    • GTA-905, 30 districts
    • Ottawa, 8 districts
    • Eastern Ontario, 8 districts
    • Hamilton-Niagara, 9 districts
    • Southwestern Ontario, 23 districts
    • Centre of Ontario, 8 districts
    • Northern Ontario, 10 districts
  • Prairies, 28 districts
    • Manitoba, 14 districts
    • Saskatchewan, 14 districts
  • Alberta, 34 districts
    • Edmonton, 11 districts
    • Calgary, 10 districts
    • Northern Alberta, 7 districts
    • Southern Alberta, 6 districts
  • British Columbia, 42 districts
    • Greater Vancouver, 22 districts
    • Victoria & Vancouver Island, 7 districts
    • East/Rockies, 9 districts
    • Northern BC, 4 districts
  • Territories, 3 districts
    • Yukon
    • Northwest Territories
    • Nunavut

Jagmeet Singh is dancing like he won the election. There’s a reason for that. .
New Democrats were in full celebration mode after their leader pulled their party back from the abyss. Now the hard part begins.There was a moment in the English leaders debate when NDP leader Jagmeet Singh urged to Canadians to reject the notion they must vote for one of Canada’s two dominant parties. “You don’t have to choose between Mr. Delay and Mr. Deny.” The remark may have been scripted, but after Monday night’s election results made it clear Canadians would have a minority government, with the NDP possibly holding the balance of power, it seemed prescient. Even though Singh lost seats, there was a feeling the NDP had gained power.

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