Canada: History says minority governments can succeed: Brandon University professor - - PressFrom - Canada
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Canada History says minority governments can succeed: Brandon University professor

21:25  21 october  2019
21:25  21 october  2019 Source:   globalnews.ca

In likely tight Canadian vote, deciding who governs could take weeks

  In likely tight Canadian vote, deciding who governs could take weeks In likely tight Canadian vote, deciding who governs could take weeksOTTAWA (Reuters) - Opinion polls suggest no party will gain a majority of seats in the Canadian election on Oct. 21. That leaves the two frontrunners - Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative opposition leader Andrew Scheer - trying to govern with a minority. Six parties are contesting the election.

a yellow sign: A voter goes to cast their vote in Canada's federal election at the Fairbanks Interpretation Centre in Dartmouth, N.S., Monday, Oct. 21, 2019.© THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan A voter goes to cast their vote in Canada's federal election at the Fairbanks Interpretation Centre in Dartmouth, N.S., Monday, Oct. 21, 2019.

It's election day, and Canadians are only hours away from learning who will represent them in Parliament and who will be the country's next prime minister.

With the latest Ipsos poll, conducted exclusively for Global News, indicating a dead heat between the Conservatives and Liberals, a minority government seems possible, if not a likely result on Monday.

The poll found 33 per cent of decided voters would choose the Conservatives while 31 per cent would choose the Liberals. The difference is within the poll’s credibility interval of plus or minus two percentage points.

Bloc leader says Tories should have shown love to Quebec earlier in campaign

  Bloc leader says Tories should have shown love to Quebec earlier in campaign CANDIAC, Que. — Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet says the recent Conservative push for votes in Quebec is too little too late as the prospect of a minority government looms. Blanchet compared Tory Leader Andrew Scheer today to a desperate boyfriend expressing his love for a scorned partner after they had already shown him the door. The Bloc leader was referencing Scheer's recent campaign stops in Quebec, where the Conservative leaderBlanchet compared Tory Leader Andrew Scheer today to a desperate boyfriend expressing his love for a scorned partner after they had already shown him the door.

The NDP, Green Party, Bloc Québécois and PPC were not polling within reach of either the Tories or the Liberals.

READ MORE: Party leaders join fellow Canadians at the polls as voting gets underway

Brandon University political science professor Kelly Saunders told 680 CJOB on Monday that a minority government's success or failure depends on how willing the leaders are to work together.

"We've had minority governments in the past and we always point back to the (Lester) Pearson years, where we got a lot of stuff done," Saunders said.

Pearson, Canada's 14th prime minister, led two back-to-back minority governments from 1963 to 1968.

The Prime Minister of Canada, Lester Pearson is shown closeup as he is seated at a desk going through papers.© Getty The Prime Minister of Canada, Lester Pearson is shown closeup as he is seated at a desk going through papers.

"We had a minority Liberal government but, during that time, we had a new flag that we decided on, we expanded medicare and, during that time, we were able to get some really significant policy decisions made."

Scheer says he expects the leader with most seats will form government

  Scheer says he expects the leader with most seats will form government Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer said on Wednesday night that he expects that all parties "will respect the fact" that whoever wins the most seats on Oct. 21 will be the one to form government.Speaking to CTV's Chief News Anchor Lisa LaFlamme, Scheer said "we would expect that other parties would respect the fact that whichever party wins the most seats gets to form the government and that they will understand that if Canadians — when Canadians endorse our platform, we will have the right to implement it.

READ MORE: Minority government could leave Governor General with critical role in what follows

Saunders said a Liberal minority would likely last longer than a Conservative one, thanks to the support of the NDP.

"We've already heard from the NDP ... that they're not willing to support a Conservative government so that would essentially mean that government would collapse pretty quick and we'd probably be back to another election," Saunders said.

"If it's a Liberal minority, then we'd likely be able to see the government hang on for possibly 18 months, two years or so, depending on what the issues are."

A Conservative victory, however, might result in the resignation of Trudeau as Liberal Party leader.

READ MORE: Election 2019 — Last-minute voters’ guide

"We would probably see Justin Trudeau step down as leader of the Liberal Party," said Saunders.

"It would be pretty hard for him to continue to lead a party that won so significantly in terms of seats four years ago, only to see them lose that majority lead four years later.

"I really don't see a path for him to stay on as leader if, in fact, the Liberals lose."

— With files from Rachael D'Amore

Liberal minority may not have been Bay Street's first choice, but investors should like the results anyway .
Many on Bay Street may have been hoping for a Conservative majority in the 2019 federal election, but if history serves as a guide, the outcome should suit investors just fine — at least in the short term. On Monday, voters returned Justin Trudeau’s Liberals to government, albeit with a reduced minority mandate. On Monday, voters returned Justin Trudeau’s Liberals to government, albeit with a reduced minority mandate. Historically, it turns out, markets have initially performed much better in the wake of a Liberal minority victory than the Conservative equivalent.

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