Canada: Matt Gurney: Why this map of the GTA may seal Andrew Scheer's political fate - - PressFrom - Canada
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Canada Matt Gurney: Why this map of the GTA may seal Andrew Scheer's political fate

18:21  29 october  2019
18:21  29 october  2019 Source:   nationalpost.com

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Matt Gurney is a journalist on National Post. His hobbies and interests include classic rock music, golfing, cursing the Toronto Maple Leafs and, as all those who know him can attest, he is a shamelessly devoted fan of the original Star Trek series and the Civilization computer game franchise, to which he

a close up of text on a white background: The map in question is based on data from 338Canada.com, run by Philippe J. Fournier© 338Canada.com The map in question is based on data from 338Canada.com, run by Philippe J. Fournier

Editor’s note: The opinions in this article are the author’s, as published by our content partner, and do not necessarily represent the views of MSN or Microsoft.

I was walking my kids to school through fog so thick it was like a Stephen King novella when I got a text from a friend. It was just like quite a few texts or messages or calls I’ve been getting since last week. My friend had told me confidently before the weekend that Andrew Scheer’s position as leader of the Conservative party was safe. Now? They’re not so sure.

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Andrew Scheer , Regina, SK. 302K likes. Leader of Canada' s Conservatives | Chef des conservateurs du Canada. Andrew Scheer has been the Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since May 27, 2017. Political Organization. Team Scheer .

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Again, there’s a lot of that going around. People who a week ago were still fully aboard Team Scheer, or maybe weren’t but still expected him to survive, are changing their minds. Maybe it’s because of some of the criticism of Scheer in the media. Maybe it’s because some of the dissent within the Conservative party is now spilling out into the open.

Or maybe it’s because of the map.

The map in question was first published in Maclean’s two days ago. It’s based on data from 338Canada.com , run by Philippe J. Fournier. 338Canada.com aggregates and analyzes polls; now that the election is over, it’s analyzing the actual results. The map couldn’t be simpler (though the work that went into creating it was doubtless complicated!). It’s colour-coded, and shows, by riding, where the parties did better or worse in 2019 compared to 2015. Green means better, red means worse … the darker the colour, the stronger the trend. And in the essential ridings in and around the City of Toronto (including its 905 suburbs), the Conservative map shows a whole lot of red.

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Andrew Scheer (born May 20, 1979) is a Canadian Member of Parliament (MP) who served as Speaker of the House of Commons from 2011 to 2015.At age 32, he was the youngest person to serve in this capacity in Canadian parliamentary history.

Andrew Scheer has been the Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since May 27, 2017. He is in politics to put hardworking families first. After the 2011 election, Andrew was elected Speaker of the House of Commons – the youngest person ever to take up that position.

Andrew Scheer wearing a suit and tie smiling at the camera:  Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer participates in an interview reflecting on the 2019 Federal election, in Ottawa, on Thursday, Oct. 24, 2019.© THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer participates in an interview reflecting on the 2019 Federal election, in Ottawa, on Thursday, Oct. 24, 2019.

This is important. We’ve all heard over the last week how the Conservative result, though disappointing, actually contained a lot of good news for Scheer. He won the popular vote, reduced Trudeau to a minority, is on the same path as Stephen Harper after 2004, and so on and so on. But it was also understood well before the vote that winning the 905 wasn’t optional. It was the key battleground between Liberals and Conservatives, and the Liberals were probably about as hobbled by policy surrenders and leadership scandals as they ever will be.

And the Conservatives still lost ground. In 55 ridings, the Conservatives lost support in 47, relative to 2015.

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what' s there to do, i couldn't even tell you, everything keeps spinning letting me know, that something doesn't feel right, and it' s sitting in my chest feelin' so low. it' s been black outside for days now, i hope the end of the week gets here quick. so there is nothing left to question, not even the God that.

Last week, ahead of the Green party’ s just-concluded policy convention in Ottawa, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May spoke of the costs and sacrifices of political life. “I love being a member of Parliament. I don’t love politics . I don’t love being leader of the Green party,” she confessed.

The 2015 comparison is an important one. The Conservatives lost that election, too, and also did badly in the Toronto area. This time, even post-blackface, while the Tories improved in Atlantic Canada and owned the west, they completely fizzled in the GTA … again, despite the fact that Trudeau was absurdly vulnerable.

Scheer has already said that the Conservatives are conducting a full review of their campaign — what worked and what didn’t. He faces a leadership review vote in six months, and the findings of the review will no doubt be a central part of what makes or breaks him then. But in the meantime, it seems that the matter at hand is actually straightforward: why did the Conservatives do worse in the GTA this time compared to their last lost election? And the related question, the only one that matters for Scheer’s future: can the party realistically believe he’ll do better there next time?

If not, the answer is clear. If the Conservatives can’t win the Toronto area with Scheer as leader, they can’t win, period.

National Post

magurney@nationalpost.com

Twitter.com/MattGurney

Pressure mounts on Scheer — new Angus Reid poll shows 42 per cent feel he should step down .
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