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Canada Matt Gurney: Why this map of the GTA may seal Andrew Scheer's political fate

18:21  29 october  2019
18:21  29 october  2019 Source:   nationalpost.com

Inside 48 hours and a momentum shift on the Conservative campaign

  Inside 48 hours and a momentum shift on the Conservative campaign Andrew Scheer and his team appeared relaxed and quietly confident late last week, dancing at a Nova Scotia rally and joking with reporters. But amid a dramatic push to sharpen his message and build momentum to Election Day, bold claims and a Friday night surprise created some tension.As the energetic rally with a few hundred people started to wind down, she picked up the two-month-old daughter of a senior Conservative staffer and started playfully dancing with baby Georgia — bopping along to the campaign theme song as it played on a nearby speaker.

Matt Gurney : Scheer asked Canadians to trust him, while avoiding questions. Not a good look. Matt Gurney : Trudeau and the Liberals just won't stop saying things that anger the West. Matt Gurney : The first question that needs an answer — what happens to Andrew Scheer ? And the Conservatives still

Matt Gurney : Why this map of the GTA may seal Andrew Scheer ' s political fate . Matt Gurney : Scheer asked Canadians to trust him, while avoiding questions. Not a good look. Matt Gurney : Trudeau and the Liberals just won't stop saying things that anger the West.

a close up of text on a white background: The map in question is based on data from 338Canada.com, run by Philippe J. Fournier© 338Canada.com The map in question is based on data from 338Canada.com, run by Philippe J. Fournier

Editor’s note: The opinions in this article are the author’s, as published by our content partner, and do not necessarily represent the views of MSN or Microsoft.

I was walking my kids to school through fog so thick it was like a Stephen King novella when I got a text from a friend. It was just like quite a few texts or messages or calls I’ve been getting since last week. My friend had told me confidently before the weekend that Andrew Scheer’s position as leader of the Conservative party was safe. Now? They’re not so sure.

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WatchMatt Gurney : Why this map of the GTA may seal Andrew Scheer ' s political fate . Winning the 905 wasn't optional. It was the key battleground between WatchWas the federal election a case of the right product but the wrong packaging for Conservatives? Was the problem strategy, or tactics?

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Again, there’s a lot of that going around. People who a week ago were still fully aboard Team Scheer, or maybe weren’t but still expected him to survive, are changing their minds. Maybe it’s because of some of the criticism of Scheer in the media. Maybe it’s because some of the dissent within the Conservative party is now spilling out into the open.

Or maybe it’s because of the map.

The map in question was first published in Maclean’s two days ago. It’s based on data from 338Canada.com , run by Philippe J. Fournier. 338Canada.com aggregates and analyzes polls; now that the election is over, it’s analyzing the actual results. The map couldn’t be simpler (though the work that went into creating it was doubtless complicated!). It’s colour-coded, and shows, by riding, where the parties did better or worse in 2019 compared to 2015. Green means better, red means worse … the darker the colour, the stronger the trend. And in the essential ridings in and around the City of Toronto (including its 905 suburbs), the Conservative map shows a whole lot of red.

Matt Gurney: The first question that needs an answer — what happens now to Andrew Scheer?

  Matt Gurney: The first question that needs an answer — what happens now to Andrew Scheer? As I wait for my tea to finish steeping on a rainy Tuesday morning, hours after the Liberals lost their majority and the popular vote but still took a large plurality of federal ridings, there’s a few questions I can’t answer yet. Some of them are just a matter of waiting for more detailed breakdowns of all of Monday night’s individual races, and some number crunching of meta results. But the biggest one is what happens to Andrew Scheer. Or, to put it more bluntly, whether the Conservative leader won or lost. For everyone else, it’s an easy question to answer. Justin Trudeau lost his majority. The NDP lost roughly half their caucus.

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Andrew Scheer wearing a suit and tie smiling at the camera:  Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer participates in an interview reflecting on the 2019 Federal election, in Ottawa, on Thursday, Oct. 24, 2019.© THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer participates in an interview reflecting on the 2019 Federal election, in Ottawa, on Thursday, Oct. 24, 2019.

This is important. We’ve all heard over the last week how the Conservative result, though disappointing, actually contained a lot of good news for Scheer. He won the popular vote, reduced Trudeau to a minority, is on the same path as Stephen Harper after 2004, and so on and so on. But it was also understood well before the vote that winning the 905 wasn’t optional. It was the key battleground between Liberals and Conservatives, and the Liberals were probably about as hobbled by policy surrenders and leadership scandals as they ever will be.

And the Conservatives still lost ground. In 55 ridings, the Conservatives lost support in 47, relative to 2015.

Andrew Scheer must find a way to the East

  Andrew Scheer must find a way to the East Time for Conservatives to reckon with the message they were selling, which worked great in two provinces, but inadequately in the other eight .In much of the country, voters appeared to reject Conservative pushes of fiscal restraint, and of scrapping the carbon tax, so much so that New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs, a Conservative who had joined the Western provinces’ fight against the levy, announced a course reversal on Oct. 22.

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The 2015 comparison is an important one. The Conservatives lost that election, too, and also did badly in the Toronto area. This time, even post-blackface, while the Tories improved in Atlantic Canada and owned the west, they completely fizzled in the GTA … again, despite the fact that Trudeau was absurdly vulnerable.

Scheer has already said that the Conservatives are conducting a full review of their campaign — what worked and what didn’t. He faces a leadership review vote in six months, and the findings of the review will no doubt be a central part of what makes or breaks him then. But in the meantime, it seems that the matter at hand is actually straightforward: why did the Conservatives do worse in the GTA this time compared to their last lost election? And the related question, the only one that matters for Scheer’s future: can the party realistically believe he’ll do better there next time?

If not, the answer is clear. If the Conservatives can’t win the Toronto area with Scheer as leader, they can’t win, period.

National Post

magurney@nationalpost.com

Twitter.com/MattGurney

Andrew Scheer does not sound like a man who thinks he needs to change .
Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer's appearance Wednesday after a party caucus meeting was a reminder that the questions raised during this fall's election campaign won't easily go away.He did not sound like a man who thought there was much of anything about himself that needed to change.

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