Canada: The new Liberal voter coalition looks a lot like the last one - - PressFrom - Canada

Canada The new Liberal voter coalition looks a lot like the last one

10:01  14 november  2019
10:01  14 november  2019 Source:

Bloc Québécois says it's satisfied with Hochelaga result, asks for end to recount

  Bloc Québécois says it's satisfied with Hochelaga result, asks for end to recount The judicial recount for the Quebec riding of Hochelaga has been terminated by a judge at the request of the Bloc Québécois. The party requested the recount after Liberal candidate Soraya Martinez Ferrada beat Bloc Québécois candidate Simon Marchand by just 328 votes in the Montréal riding. An Elections Canada official told CBC News that after an unspecified number of ballot boxes were opened, the Bloc Québécois decided Monday that a recount would not change the result of the election.The official would not say how many ballot boxes were reopened for the recount before the party asked a judge to call it off.

Only 62 ridings changed hands on election night, and Liberals won many of the same voters as 2015. A deep dive into Statistics Canada shows where the Tories fell short.

"They look back on a past where they were an economically significant part of the economy," Nugent said. "Pittsburgh has a lot of nostalgia for its Like the U.S., the UK has struggled to regain robust growth following the 2008 global financial crisis. In 2015, the UK economy expanded 2.3 percent and

a group of people standing in front of a crowd: PM Trudeau stops by the Flying Monkeys brewery in Barrie. Sept. 26, 2019. (Adam Scotti/LPC )© Used with permission of / © St. Joseph Communications. PM Trudeau stops by the Flying Monkeys brewery in Barrie. Sept. 26, 2019. (Adam Scotti/LPC )

When John Brassard was knocking on doors in Barrie, Ont. in this fall’s election, he could sense that his Conservative party’s platform was a winner. Brassard, the incumbent in Barrie-Innisfil, was confident voters would give him a second term on the strength of a tax cut the Conservatives said would save the average family $850 a year, a public transit tax credit that could save long-distance commuters almost $600 a year, and a children’s fitness tax credit that could save hundreds more.

Liberal winners, losers gather in Ottawa after disappointing election result

  Liberal winners, losers gather in Ottawa after disappointing election result OTTAWA — Re-elected, newly elected and defeated Liberal MPs are gathering on Parliament Hill to mull over the disappointing results of the Oct. 21 election and contemplate the best way forward in a challenging new world of minority government. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says it's a day of celebrating wins and also mourning losses as the Liberals seek to chart a new course. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says it's a day of celebrating wins and also mourning losses as the Liberals seek to chart a new course.

If liberals voted at the same rate as conservatives, Democrats would control the Senate. Clinton or Barack Obama could then have filled the recent Supreme Court vacancy, and that justice would hold the tiebreaking vote on campaign finance, labor unions and other issues.

The new Liberal voter coalition looks a lot like the last one : In the last election only 62 ridings changed hands, and Liberals won many of the same voters as 2015. To get a clearer picture of what was happening below the surface Nick Taylor-Vaisey takes a deep dive into Statistics Canada census

And he did comfortably hold his riding, even after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau paid Barrie two visits during the 40-day campaign. If Trudeau didn’t manage to oust Brassard, though, election results across the suburban swath that starts just south of his seat show why the Liberals tried so hard. Brassard, who represents plenty of Toronto commuters, was the exception, not the rule. His win says a lot about who voted for the Conservatives and who stuck with the Liberals.

GO Transit commuter trains reach the end of the line in Barrie-Innisfil, where thousands of Brassard’s constituents make the daily trek to downtown Toronto or nearby suburbs. The riding has the ninth-highest proportion of commuters who travel longer than an hour each way, according to census data. But the former city councillor and firefighter draws a distinction between the 705—his riding’s area code—and the 905 region just to the south.

Quebec, swimming in cash, plans $850 million in new spending aimed at families

  Quebec, swimming in cash, plans $850 million in new spending aimed at families Quebec's economy is humming, allowing the government to shower Quebecers with more than $850 million in extra spending this fiscal year — mostly on families with children — and pay down billions of dollars of debt. The province should finish the 2019-2020 fiscal year with a $1.4-billion surplus, fuelled by a 2.4 per cent increase in GDP in 2019 — 0.6 per cent higher than the growth rate forecast in the spring budget, Finance Minister Eric Girard announced Thursday.

In the middle of it all, voters in Colorado and Washington legalized cannabis for all adults As with the last crackdown, US attorneys are likely to select symbolic targets meant to maximize deterrence. Meanwhile, in New Jersey, Gov. Phil Murphy has promised to follow through with a campaign vow to

Conservatives and Liberals have rarely looked more alike than this week. Beyond Stephen Harper’s call-the-cops management of the Helena Guergis affair Conservatives who set the target of replacing Liberals as the default natural governing party are hitting the bull’s eye by being every bit as cynical.

READ MORE: Who wins Election 2019 under a ranked-ballot system

For one, outside of Barrie and a handful of other residential areas, Brassard represents farmers. And half of the commuters in his riding travel less than 30 minutes each way—meaning many aren’t lured away by the GTA. Brassard tailored his pitch to each constituent, pushing affordability measures like the transit credit in commuter-heavy areas, and slamming the federal carbon tax whenever he talked to a farmer who said their costs were through the roof. The Conservative platform may have inadvertently been tailored for a riding like Barrie-Innisfil—dense enough to be considered urban, pock-marked with suburban communities, stitched together by wide rural expanses—at the expense of more densely packed GTA ridings.

The stark truth of the 2019 election was that fewer than one in five seats changed hands. The vast majority of Canada voted the same way as four years ago. Only 62 ridings flipped out of 338. The victorious Liberals were still the biggest losers. They shed 21 seats to the Tories and only gained two back; they watched eight of their seats fall to the Bloc Québécois, a Fredericton seat go Green and a Vancouver district elect Jody Wilson-Raybould.

'Extremely concerned': Protesters decry Ontario health-care cuts, changes

  'Extremely concerned': Protesters decry Ontario health-care cuts, changes Around 200 health-care workers and unions protested cuts to Ontario health care on Saturday, decrying the Ford's government's planned changes to public health and ambulance services at a rally in Toronto. "We're extremely concerned about these cuts," said Natalie Mehra, executive director of the Ontario Health Coalition, which organized the rally in Nathan Phillips Square.Public health should be preventing illness, but "with these cuts we're going to be more reactionary," said Sandra Bearzot, who represents GTA nurses with the Ontario Nurses Association. "This to me spells more deaths.

The Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron has ruled out any form of coalition with the Tories or Labour after the general election as he sets out a bold ambition to attract The new approach is also designed to spike Tory claims that a vote for the Lib Dems could lead to a “ coalition of chaos” after the election.

If the “broad church” Liberals go along with it, they will find themselves in a very narrow Liberal party indeed – one that looks a lot more like One The new prime minister will visit farmers in Queensland tomorrow on his first official outing. Scott Morrison, the new prime minister of Australia, addresses

The opposition parties traded a handful of seats, but the enduring story was just how many voters, especially in the GTA, sent Liberals back to Ottawa. And the new Liberal coalition looks a lot like the last one, if a bit slimmer.

An avalanche of post-election analysis blames the Conservatives’ loss on Andrew Scheer’s social conservatism, the poor judgment of his senior staff, a lack of reliable voter data, an inadequate plan to fight climate change and an uninspiring set of platform promises. Tories have dispatched John Baird, a longtime Tory MP and cabinet minister, to assess the party’s lacklustre performance. As he goes about his work, detailed Statistics Canada riding profiles with detailed census data on income, employment, ethnicity and age help to piece together the voter coalition that turned away from Scheer and gave Trudeau a second term. (Important caveats: The census data is from 2016, which means it’s three years old—particularly relevant in fast-growing communities where demographics change. Also, data on journey to work, ethnicity and education were based on 25 per cent samples of private households in Canada.)

Jagmeet Singh to lay out NDP priorities in meeting with Trudeau Thursday

  Jagmeet Singh to lay out NDP priorities in meeting with Trudeau Thursday OTTAWA — NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh will meet with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Thursday, where he will lay out his priorities in the hopes of using his party's position in a minority Parliament to get policies and laws that reflect New Democrat platform commitments. The party was reduced to fourth place in the House of Commons behind the Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois after winning just 24 seats in the recent election, down from the 39 it held before the Oct. 21 vote. But despite these losses, party and caucus members were cheering on election night and have since been viewing the upcoming re-opening of Parliament as a positive for the party.

At first glance, Bernie Sanders’s voters in Iowa this week looked a lot like Barack Obama’s from 2008. Both were strongest among young, independent-leaning, liberal men. Yet with the actual results of the Democratic caucuses in and counted, it is clear that Mr. Sanders’s coalition is very different.

Unsurprisingly, voters like the idea of having a greater say – 71% agreed with the proposition that “every day people should play a bigger part (than they currently do) in governmental decisions that impact their lives, e.g. health, education, transport, taxes”.


Liberals utterly dominated urban Canada. In 2015, the Liberals won 123 out of 176 ridings with a density of 300 per sq.-km., which our analysis defines as urban. In 2019, they held 107 of those ridings, bleeding 10 to the Tories and four to the Bloc. (Nine of those Tory swings were west of Ontario.) Conservatives struggled mightily to win in cities, managing only to win the 67th densest riding in the country—Edmonton-Griesbach. Rural Canada was, of course, a different story: Tories won 80 of 150 ridings after managing to win only 69 in 2015.


Trudeau’s well-worn pitch to the middle class “and those working hard to join it” appears to have worked—again. Of the 152 ridings in which the median household income was between $40,000 and $60,000 in 2016, the Liberals held 73 and picked up four from the NDP. They lost only a smattering to other parties. The Tories fared better in the 138 ridings with median incomes between $60,000 and $80,000. They didn’t lose an inch to other parties, holding 47 ridings and swiping 13 from the Liberals. The two parties split the 41 ridings, 20 apiece, with median incomes between $80,000 and $100,000. (Only four ridings had median incomes over $100,000, and Tories won three, each in Alberta. The fourth, Oakville on the GTA’s western flank, went Liberal.)

2019 CMA Awards: See the best photos from inside and backstage

  2019 CMA Awards: See the best photos from inside and backstage 2019 CMA Awards: See the best photos from inside and backstage

It sounds like a joke — a political version of the old Yogi Berra one -liner about a local restaurant The Democratic electorate is extremely broad in ideological terms. During the last presidential cycle Joe Biden, still the Democratic frontrunner in most national polls, draws a lot of support from this faction

"Young voters , liberals and first-time caucus-goers. That is the Obama coalition in Iowa," says John Heilemann. And like the 2008 Obama supporters, they've got their hammers ready to put the last few nails in Nothing says fresh and new ideas more than two candidates with a combined age of 140.


Trudeau also won big where the most families are paying at least 30 per cent of their income on housing. Of 157 ridings where 40 to 50 per cent of households spend that much on rent, the Liberals won 93 to the Tories’ 44. In ridings where only 30 to 40 per cent of renting households pay that much, the Conservatives won 56 of 133 (and the Liberals won 50). The trend holds for homeowners, too. The Liberals won 52 of 68 ridings where 20 to 30 per cent of homeowners spent at least 30 per cent of income on housing. The Tories won more seats in ridings that spent less proportionally on their homes.

Liberals also dominate ridings with the highest proportion of lone-parent households: they won 35 of 55 ridings in which more than lone parents make up 20 per cent of households, and 79 of 152 ridings where 15-20 per cent of households have just one parent. Conversely, Tories won 64 of 129 ridings where that number is only 10-15 per cent.


The Conservatives didn’t manage to win back many of the GTA seats with large immigrant communities they won in 2008 and 2011–and lost in 2015—after years of work spearheaded by then-cabinet minister Jason Kenney. Heading into the election, Liberals held five ridings in which Statistics Canada says visible minorities comprised more than 80 per cent of the population. The Tories held one. None of those ridings changed the way they voted. Before the election, Liberals held 20 of 23 ridings where visible minorities made up between 60 and 80 per cent of residents. The Tories held one. On election night, the Liberals won 18 and ceded two to the Tories. Conservatives only won a plurality of seats where the number of visible minorities was under 20 per cent.

There's another new faction in the Senate: the Progressive Senate Group

  There's another new faction in the Senate: the Progressive Senate Group The Independent Liberal Senate caucus is disbanding today and all of its members are about to join a new entity called the Progressive Senate Group as the reorganization of Canada's upper house continues apace. Dismantling the Liberal caucus in the chamber means the upper house will be left without a sitting Liberal senator for the first time since Confederation.The interim leader of the group, New Brunswick Sen. Joseph Day, said the senators are united by a belief in liberty and equality and a commitment to a progressive vision of Canada, where the government has a positive role to play in advancing the public interest.

A significant majority of Britons would like a return to one -party government after The report notes: “Apparently, any hopes that the Liberal Democrats might have had that voters would come to accept coalitions once they saw one in action have been dashed by the experience of the last five years.”

Liberalism is like a big river with many currents and eddies, rather than a monolith. Liberal Currents will be the voice of the new liberal , one willing to look back for insights and forward to a better future. Parties are coalitions , and to form a coalition with the retrograde Republican minority who


On education, too, the electoral divide is clear. Liberals won 14 of 15 ridings where Statistics Canada says 80 per cent or more of adults aged 25-64 have completed post-secondary education. They won 43 of 75 ridings where that proportion is 70 to 80 per cent, and 62 of 126 where that number is 60 to 70 per cent. Tories won a plurality—56 of 109—where post-secondary rates dropped to 50 to 60 per cent.


Even if younger voters skew left, as post-election analyses often show, the median age of a Tory constituent, 41.3 years old, is roughly comparable to a median Liberal constituent, at 41.2 years old. The Greens’ three ridings are some of Canada’s oldest, which explains their constituents’ median age of 47.3. The NDP’s median constituent is the youngest, at 40.1 years old.


  • Who wins Election 2019 under a ranked-ballot system
  • Andrew Scheer’s moment of truth
  • Here are all of Justin Trudeau’s promises in federal election 2019
  • ‘Canadian voters deserve pity!’

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, king of Jordan to meet in Ottawa Monday .
OTTAWA — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets today with the king of Jordan. It is King Abdullah II's fifth visit to Canada in his twenty years on the throne of the Middle Eastern country. The Prime Minister's Office says the two will discuss the partnership between Canada and Jordan and efforts to promote diversity and counter violent extremism. They'll also discuss ongoing regional security concerns, exacerbated in recent weeks by the repeated violation of a ceasefire in the Syrian civil war.

—   Share news in the SOC. Networks

Topical videos:

usr: 0
This is interesting!