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Canada Clemens Fuest: With new debts through the crisis

17:15  22 september  2020
17:15  22 september  2020 Source:   dw.com

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Clemens Fuest (born 23 August 1968) is a German economist who has been President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and director of the Center for Economic Studies at the University of Munich (LMU) since 2016.

Clemens Fuest is President of the Ifo Institute and Professor of Economics at the University of After driving so many countries into deficit situations and and higher debt /GDP ratios, German apologists I am disappointed that Dr. Fuest expresses his view from the perspective of Germany rather than that

A current forecast by the Munich Ifo Institute sees the collapse of the German economy due to the Corona crisis less badly than feared. Ifo boss Clemens Fuest explains why in a DW interview.

Provided by Deutsche Welle © picture-alliance / dpa / S. Stache Provided by Deutsche Welle

DW: The Ifo Institute has revised its forecast for the German economy significantly upwards. So isn't the damage caused by Corona that bad?

Clemens Fuest: The damage is considerable. We are currently still expecting a shrinkage of a little more than five percent in the range of what we had in the 2009 financial crisis. This is a historic slump, but not quite as big as what we expected three months ago.

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Clemens Fuest is Research Director of the Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation and Professor of Business Taxation at Oxford's Saïd Contributors Clemens Fuest , Timothy Goodspeed, Shafik Hebous, Michael Keen, Christian Lessmann, Boryana Madzharova, Giorgia Maffini, Gunther

Clemens Fuest , President of the ifo Institute for Economic Research, explains the pros Protectionist tendencies have triggered a new discussion about the pros and cons of free trade and protectionism Rising debt can lead to over-indebtedness crises , less so the direct acquisition of assets abroad.

What was the main reason for the significant improvement in the prognosis?

There were various reasons. First of all, the second quarter didn't go as badly as we expected. Then some trading partners recovered surprisingly quickly, especially China. In July, exports to China were about as high as in the previous year. Other retail partners are not doing quite as well, but the overall picture is a bit friendlier. And then politicians took a lot of money into their hands and supported the economy. All of this means that we have raised the forecast a bit.

Bad news comes from many industries. Lufthansa is on the ground, auto suppliers are announcing job cuts. A wave of bankruptcies is feared in the retail and hospitality sector if the exceptions in insolvency law cease to exist. How does that fit in with your less pessimistic outlook?

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What is the influence of the financial markets and currency crises ? What are the effects on consumer and tourism demand? The President of the ifo Institute presents Speaker and Interview Guest: Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Clemens Fuest , President, ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

Clemens Fuest . ifo Institute – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich. German Public Finances Through the Financial Crisis . crisis management, financial crisis , redistribution, budget deficit and debt . Fiscal Consolidation and Automatic Stabilization: New Results.

The problems in these industries are of course priced into the forecast, and they are not going away either. Gastronomy, the travel industry, the trade fair industry have huge problems. We even have difficulties in some areas of industry: mechanical engineering, the automotive industry, things are not going so well. But there are other areas of the economy that have developed quite well, for example in the bicycle business or the furniture industry, and that leads to this forecast, which has been raised somewhat overall.

Während einige Branchen die Pandemie bislang gut überstanden haben, kämpfen Auto-Zulieferer mit den Auswirkungen © picture-alliance / dpa / F. Kästle While some industries have survived the pandemic well so far, auto suppliers are struggling with the effects

Now, forecasts are particularly difficult at the moment because the development of the pandemic is still unclear. However, the further development of Brexit and the US-China trade war is just as unclear. Is it even possible to make a reasonably reliable forecast under these conditions?

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Sep.24 -- Clemens Fuest , president at Ifo Institute, discusses the latest reading of German business confidence. He speaks with Bloomberg's Matt Miller on

Clemens Fuest . He believes the ECB mishandled the Greek crisis by extending some €90bn in loans to Greek banks through sanctioning Closer to home, Mr Fuest is scathing about the Energiewende, “energy turnround” policy, an attempt to move Germany towards greater reliance on renewable energy.

forecasts are serious if the assumptions are disclosed. Forecasts are scenarios that are based on certain assumptions. Nobody knows the future. But in order to be able to plan, one has to think up scenarios and consider: What could happen? Our forecast is based on the assumption that there will not be a massive second wave of infections in autumn, that there will be no hard Brexit and that the trade war will not flare up again. Of course, everything can turn out differently. At the moment, this is indeed fraught with a particularly high level of uncertainty. But you can still make a serious forecast simply by disclosing these assumptions.

Germany is repeatedly accused of generating indecently high export surpluses. Does the crisis change anything about that?

Not really. We will have a lower export surplus this year, but it will increase again a year later. There are very fundamental patterns that drive the whole thing, above all high savings in Germany and a rather cautious propensity to consume and invest. In Germany, a lot of people save, that has to do with our demography. You can't get rid of such imbalances so quickly, at least not through such a crisis.

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From the Federal Reserve to a New US Republic via Global Currency Reset 235 Points of Fact as of June 3, 2016 Submitted Anonymously on June

🎦 Clemens Fuest . Quite the same Wikipedia. Just better. What we do. Every page goes through several hundred of perfecting techniques; in live mode. Quite the same Wikipedia.

You have already mentioned it: The German state has spent a lot of money to help the economy through the crisis. The aid packages cost billions. If the crisis does not become as severe as feared, what does that mean for the German state budget?

The national budget will not slide quite as far into deficit. Because when the economy is doing better, there is more tax revenue and you don't have to spend that much, for example on unemployment benefits. So the deficit will not be that big. Nevertheless, we must assume that we will have a substantial deficit in the national budget for several years now. That will still be the case in the coming year and also in 2022.

So no quick return to the so-called black zero - so a balanced budget? This will take time until we get back to the black zero. According to our estimates, at least until 2023, but maybe even longer. But that's not so bad. The long-term commitment to solidity is important. And that is what the black zero or the debt brake is good for. These are important political signals that investors know: Germany is not abandoning its solid financial policy. But now in the crisis it is part of a solid financial policy that you also get into debt if you have to. And when things get better again, we will reduce the deficits.

Clemens Fuest is Professor of Economics at the Ludwig Maximilians University in Munich and President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research.

The questions were asked by Andreas Becker.

Author: Andreas Becker

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