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Canada John Ivison: Liberals get clashing election messages while best chance to win majority passes by

01:51  28 october  2020
01:51  28 october  2020 Source:   nationalpost.com

John Ivison: Trudeau’s willingness to opt for nuclear option to avoid awkward questions is troubling

  John Ivison: Trudeau’s willingness to opt for nuclear option to avoid awkward questions is troubling It reads like satire now but five years ago, the Trudeau Liberals were elected on a platform that promised electoral reform; stronger Access to Information legislation; an end to the use of omnibus bills and prorogation; and, more robust parliamentary committees that could better hold the government to account. Having broken the first three pledges, the Liberals are now threatening to provoke a general election over the fourth. The House of Having broken the first three pledges, the Liberals are now threatening to provoke a general election over the fourth.

THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS could stop Boris Johnson from making huge gains in the South of England, Brexit Party MEP Rupert Lowe has warned. Mr Lowe conceded the outcome of the general election was very difficult to predict and said it is important to keep on eye on how the south is voting.

The Liberal Democrats entered this election buoyed by a revival in the polls and the addition to their ranks of numerous MPs who defected from other parties, including Chuka Umunna and Luciana Berger from Labour, and the former Tory minister Sam Gyimah. All three, however, were defeated.

Justin Trudeau wearing a suit and tie: Last week, Trudeau appeared hell-bent on going to the polls when he declared a vote on an opposition motion a matter of confidence. But sources claim he genuinely does not want an election. © Provided by National Post Last week, Trudeau appeared hell-bent on going to the polls when he declared a vote on an opposition motion a matter of confidence. But sources claim he genuinely does not want an election.

Another incumbent provincial government wins a resounding majority.

But the federal party loses support in two Toronto byelections.

Opinion polls suggest the Liberals would regain their own majority if an election were held today.

Yet, nearly half of the electorate say they don’t want an election next year, or even the year after that.

Justin Trudeau is caught in a Hamlet-like dilemma – should he stay or should he go?

Shakespearean drama in Parliament over confidence vote slips between thriller and comedy

  Shakespearean drama in Parliament over confidence vote slips between thriller and comedy OTTAWA – What began as a day of high drama – would the federal government fall over a vote to create an “anti-corruption committee” – became much ado about nothing as the Liberals handily won the vote against the Conservative motion with the last-minute help of the NDP and Greens. Wednesday morning, there was a palpable buzz among federal political staff, MPs and journalists. Were Canadians going into a general election in the middle of a second wave of COVID-19 on a non-confidence motion that no one expected in the first place, or not? That was the question.

Like the “ liberal ” Supreme Court justices, who see no constitutional problem with compelling crisis pregnancy centers to send messages they find Carter calls for “a degree of humility” in passing and enforcing laws that compel speech against conscience — something today’s “ liberals ” seem to have

As election day approaches, polling companies will be trying to gauge the mood of the nation by asking voters which candidate they prefer. We ' ll be keeping track of those polls here and trying to work out what they can and can't tell us about who will win the election .

The historic fourth majority for Scott Moe’s centre-right Saskatchewan Party reinforces the message from the recent provincial elections in British Columbia and New Brunswick (in which minority governments won majority status) – voters in the grip of a pandemic want stability.

The Liberals are weighing whether the circumstances that existed at provincial level would hold federally.

Those provinces kept the virus under control but there is no guarantee that voters in the pandemic hotspots of Ontario and Quebec would respond as favourably to an unwanted election.

The byelections in Toronto Centre and York Centre suggest an enthusiasm gap for the Liberals. Former journalist Marci Ien retained Bill Morneau’s former seat for the government but the share of the vote dropped to 42 per cent from 57 per cent last year. New Green leader Annamie Paul came in second, with 32 per cent of the vote.

John Ivison: At least Canadians now know that Trudeau's priorities don't include them

  John Ivison: At least Canadians now know that Trudeau's priorities don't include them Reason returned to Parliament Hill as the Liberals made clear they will not regard a new Conservative motion on Canada’s pandemic response to be a matter of confidence. The Trudeau Liberals have wisely decided not to tax the patience of voters who have no interest in an election over procedural issues like opposition day motions. American economist Thomas Sowell might well have been talking about the folly in the Commons when he said no one will truly understand politics until people understand that politicians are not trying to solve the public’s  problems, they are trying to solve their own, “of which getting elected and re-elected are no. 1 and no. 2.

The Tories win their biggest majority since the 1980s, as Jeremy Corbyn says he will not lead Labour into the next election , and Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson loses Boris Johnson will return to Downing Street with a big majority after the Conservatives swept aside Labour in its traditional heartlands.

Jeremy Corbyn says he did "everything he could" to win and will stand down as leader early next year. And with an 80-seat majority , he shouldn't struggle to pass legislation. Mr Kinnock says he received the same three messages on the doorstep. The first, he says, was an aversion The Liberal Democrats did stand on that stop Brexit platform because we felt it was the best future for our country."

In York Centre, small business owner Ya’ara Saks had a close shave in her contest with Conservative Julius Tiangson, winning 45.7 per cent of the vote to her rival’s 41.8 per cent – again with a reduced share of the vote.

Trudeau dismissed suggestions that lost support is a sign he needs to change his political strategy. “(Ien and Saks) will help to continue the great work our government is doing,” he told reporters.

On turnouts of 31 per cent and 25.6 per cent respectively, it would be foolhardy to read too much into the results but if you are a young prince, with honour and a crown at stake, it might make you even more cautious.

Election day arrives in B.C., as flood of advance and mail-in votes wait to be counted

  Election day arrives in B.C., as flood of advance and mail-in votes wait to be counted It's officially election day in B.C.'s first provincial vote held during a pandemic. The polls close at 8 p.m. PT, but it could take some time before voters know whether NDP Leader John Horgan's gamble on a snap election has paid off. As a result of COVID-19, B.C. has seen a 7,200-per-cent surge in votes cast by mail compared to the last election, along with an increase in advance voting. "Never before have so many voters voted before election day in British Columbia electoral history," chief electoral officer Anton Boegman told reporters Friday. Polling stations open at 8 a.m., and Elections B.C.

He got a little hot in the collar a few times. I didn't see any big eye-catching gaffes. I thought Biden had a good few periods where he aimed his message directly at the camera and to the public. Trump was offered the chance to directly renounce right-wing violence - from white supremacists and militias.

Boris Johnson has sealed a landslide majority after crushing Labour in an historic election rout. Prime Minister Boris Johnson uses a sewing machine during a visit to the John Smedley Mill, while election campaigning in Matlock, Derbyshire.

There is no shortage of voices around the prime minister advising him that he should go to the Governor General and ask her to dissolve Parliament.

Opposition parties worried that the almost hysterical Liberal reaction to this week’s motion, to have the health committee examine Canada’s pandemic response, was a harbinger for a short trip across the grounds of Rideau Hall. Access to future vaccines could be jeopardized and lives endangered, the Liberals claimed, which would constitute suitable grounds for a just war. They may be yet.

But the enthusiasm for hostilities seems to have abated.

Last week, Trudeau appeared hell-bent on going to the polls when he declared a vote on an opposition motion a matter of confidence and did not negotiate support from the NDP.

But sources claim he genuinely does not want an election, something he seemed to indicate when he said on Tuesday that his party would “work with Parliament” on the COVID-19 response inquiry.

The fear of appearing opportunistic seems to have constrained the prime minister to this point, with the result that senior advisers on both sides of the aisle think, if we survive until Christmas, we could be in for a minority government to rival Lester B. Pearson’s second 960 day term of office.

What lessons does John Horgan's big B.C. election victory hold for Justin Trudeau?

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The Democratic Party is best defined by its liberal stances on issues like civil rights, immigration, and climate change. Both candidates compete to win electoral college votes. If Joe Biden wins the election , he wouldn’t immediately replace President Trump as there is a set transition period to give

Joe Biden stands a 71.1% chance of winning the Electoral College, according to the Sept. 7 run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model. He is predicted to win 334 of 538 electoral votes. The model estimated Donald Trump’s chances at 28.4%.

That could change in a heartbeat if the Conservatives overplay their hand. The “anti-corruption” committee proposal last week was very nearly a political Darwin Award winner – an uber-partisan proposal that could have provoked an election which polls suggest new leader Erin O’Toole would have lost.

If this is not to be the Conservative leader’s “Mr. Harper, your time is up” moment (the occasion when former Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff proved to be all hat and no cattle), he will have to tone down his language, at least until advertising has introduced him to more Canadians.

For their part, the New Democrats are in no mood or condition to fight an election.

In 2005, Jack Layton propped up Paul Martin’s minority until the Gomery report on sponsorship made the Liberals undesirable bedfellows. Layton subsequently demanded that the government bar the privatization of healthcare, Martin refused and an election followed.

Jagmeet Singh’s NDP needs an “on-brand” reason to remove its support. But it also needs time and money.

The party will have paid off its 2019 campaign debt by the end of the year and is in the process of opening candidate nominations. But it is still a long way from being campaign ready.

The news that there will be no fiscal anchor in Chrystia Freeland’s fall update suggests a smorgasbord of spending that the NDP will be able to support, buying it some time.

But the government may not want support.

The hawks around Trudeau are urging him to force an election for good reason – the auspices for electoral success diminish in the new year.

The ethics commissioner’s report is likely to further taint Trudeau’s nice guy image; millions of people who received government benefits will discover they are taxable come spring; and, fiscal pressures will force the Liberals to start unwinding temporary relief programs by the summer.

Those are powerful reasons for Trudeau to go to an election now.

But the fact he did not do so when he had the chance suggests it is more likely that we will have a durable minority than a snap election.

• Email: jivison@postmedia.com | Twitter: IvisonJ

Bill Walton took some Celtics teammates to a Grateful Dead concert 35 years ago today .
Bill Walton enticed members of the Celtics, including Larry Bird, Rick Carlisle and Robert Parish, to see two Grateful Dead concerts 35 years ago.Sitting off to the side on the stage that night were members of the Boston Celtics, including noted Deadhead Bill Walton.

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This is interesting!