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Canada Is a normal Christmas possible with COVID-19? Experts are doubtful

01:15  29 november  2020
01:15  29 november  2020 Source:   calgaryherald.com

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Will I be able to spend Christmas with my family? A maximum of three families can meet in one house — meaning if you are a parent with three children who all In light of this, many public health experts have warned that relaxing the rules, even temporarily, will give Covid - 19 another opportunity to spread.

As COVID - 19 hospitalizations surpass 90,000 for the first time, a record for the seventeenth day in a row, Dr. Andre Campbell, a trauma surgeon apocalypse by Christmas because of what is happening with respect to the growing number of hospitalizations — 90,000 is a lot but what if we have 150,000?

Christmas is only one month away, but instead of the usual onslaught of holiday music and mall Santas, Albertans are riding a second wave of COVID-19, with infection rates showing no sign of slowing.

a close up of a tower: A city employee decorates the Christmas tree at Olympic Plaza in Calgary on Wednesday, Nov. 25, 2020. © Provided by Calgary Herald A city employee decorates the Christmas tree at Olympic Plaza in Calgary on Wednesday, Nov. 25, 2020.

Speaking from his Rideau Cottage home on Nov. 20, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau aimed to temper expectations for a typical holiday season.

“A normal Christmas is, quite frankly, out of the question. What it looks like depends on what we do now,” Trudeau said as he addressed Canadians.

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“A Covid - 19 infection is generally mild, and that really is the secret of the virus’s success,” adds Ball. “Many people don’t even notice they have got an infection and so go around their work, homes and supermarkets Others have argued that it could mutate to become more lethal. Skinner is doubtful .

COVID - 19 spreads from person to person through small droplets, aerosols and through direct contact. Surfaces and belongings can also be contaminated It is very important that people with COVID - 19 symptoms or a positive test result stay at home and avoid contact with other household members as

It’s a message local epidemiologists tend to agree with, as case rates continue to tick up in Alberta. The province recorded 1,227 new cases of the virus Thursday and set record highs for infections over much of the past week, including 1,584 cases reported Sunday.

In response to the mounting caseload, Alberta introduced an array of new restrictions Tuesday, banning indoor social gatherings and sending students in grades 7-12 home until after the holiday break beginning Nov. 30. But Premier Jason Kenney declined to implement a more widespread lockdown, saying such an option would be an unwarranted violation of fundamental freedoms.

In an interview conducted before those restrictions were announced, Craig Jenne, University of Calgary infectious disease expert and associate professor, said it’s very unlikely current case rates would flag soon enough for things to look dramatically better for the holidays.

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Experts say we can thank masks and social distancing. But does this really add up? Although there is no mass testing for flu as there is for Covid , the WHO says that surveillance The proponents of this theory have an explanation. They claim that people with Covid are more contagious than those with flu.

She first tested positive for Covid - 19 on March 2 after she was admitted to hospital with severe anaemia. “Although it is difficult to extrapolate from a single patient, our data suggest that long-term shedding of infectious virus may be a concern in certain immunocompromised patients,” the research

“As we saw before, it takes a long time to bring a curve down,” Jenne said. “So unfortunately I think we’re going to be looking at a very high viral burden over the holiday season.”

Previous actions taken by the province to date have been “half measures,” according to University of Calgary developmental biologist Malgorzata Gasperowicz, who has been projecting exponential growth of Alberta’s case count through the holiday season and beyond.

Gasperowicz has been tracking COVID-19 case data and using infection counts to extrapolate future case counts based on an observed doubling time. She said new daily case rates are doubling about every 2½ weeks, meaning there could be more than 5,000 daily cases in the province on Dec. 25 if growth trends continue.

“We will still go on the same trajectory with the same soft measures that we’ve had,” Gasperowicz said. “When you have a surge like this, those won’t work.”

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There are a number of possible futures Covid - 19 : the history of pandemics • Why social distancing might last for some time. The responses to the Covid - 19 pandemic are simply the amplification of the dynamic that drives other social and ecological crises: the prioritisation of one type of value over others.

After a month, participants were tested for Covid - 19 as well as for antibodies against the virus. The study’s researchers have remained tight-lipped about their findings, but they’ve dropped plenty There is a raging debate worldwide over mask mandates that purport to halt the transmission of coronavirus.

For University of Alberta School of Public Health epidemiologist Dean Eurich, a semi-normal holiday season is still in the cards, with individual quarantining before the holidays one way to minimize risk.

But no matter what, this will be a far cry from the Christmas parties and large family gatherings of previous years, he said.

“We’re not going to have the office parties. You’re probably not going to five or six different friends’ houses like you may have wanted to in the past.”

That possibility of a somewhat normal Christmas would be dead in the water, however, if there isn’t a “clear directional change” in the number of COVID-19 cases by about the first week of December, Eurich said.

Drastic measures could lead to a decrease in case rates by Christmas, Gasperowicz said. But she said daily death counts for mid-to-late December are likely locked in, together with hospital and ICU admissions, as a lagging indicator behind case counts. The province can expect to average 25 COVID-19 deaths daily by Dec. 11, she said.

“This will happen. It doesn’t matter what (measures are put in place),” she said. “And the longer we wait to implement a lockdown, the bigger those daily deaths will be.”

jherring@postmedia.com

Twitter: @jasonfherring

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This is interesting!