•   
  •   
  •   
W

Canada Liberals, NDP could use a bump in the polls — at each other's expense

12:16  09 april  2021
12:16  09 april  2021 Source:   cbc.ca

Liberals, NDP could use a bump in the polls — at each other's expense

  Liberals, NDP could use a bump in the polls — at each other's expense Lionel Richie reportedly thinks his daughter Sofia Richie and her new boyfriend Elliot Grainge are a “perfect match”, as he's supportive of the new couple.

For other political parties with the same name, see New Democratic Party (disambiguation). For the centrist ideological faction in the Democratic Party in the United States, see New Democrats. In 1974, the NDP worked with the Progressive Conservatives to pass a motion of non-confidence, forcing an election. However, it backfired as Trudeau' s Liberals regained a majority government, mostly at the expense of the NDP , which lost half its seats. Lewis lost his own riding and resigned as leader the following year.

The NDP ' s position in the polling average oscillates up and down based on which pollsters have published the most recent numbers. Certain polling methodologies appear to give better results for the NDP than others . But if an election were held with the parties polling as they do now, the Conservatives might actually lose seats — and perhaps hand the Liberals a narrow majority government in the process. For a few seats more, Singh could risk losing the leverage his party holds with a minority government.

a man wearing a suit and tie: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals and Jagmeet Singh's New Democrats are holding virtual party conventions this week. © Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals and Jagmeet Singh's New Democrats are holding virtual party conventions this week.

The Liberals and New Democrats are holding duelling virtual conventions this week, with party activists debating which policies will appeal the most to the voters both parties are courting ahead of the next federal election.

But while the New Democrats are working out how best to break out beyond their traditional base of support, the Liberals are hoping the NDP stays just where it is.

That's because the Liberals would be the heavy favourites to win an election if a vote were held today. The NDP, on the other hand, likely would find itself no further ahead — and maybe much further behind, if the next election results in a Liberal majority government.

NOTEBOOK: A first look at Canada’s next federal election battlegrounds

  NOTEBOOK: A first look at Canada’s next federal election battlegrounds We chart the closest races from 2019 and use those results to get a sense of which ridings will be targeted by which parties if we have a federal election this year.Opinions are decidedly mixed as to whether we will actually see an election this spring.

The Liberals ’ bump in the polls follows Trudeau’ s strong showing at the Globe and Mail debate on the economy last week. Most respondents to the Ipsos survey say Trudeau, despite lower expectations of him than the other two, won the debate. WATCH: Watch all the highlights as Stephen Harper, Justin Trudeau and Tom Mulcair dropped the gloves in Thursday’ s leaders debate. Mulcair, Harper, Trudeau still neck and neck and neck on other metrics. Despite Trudeau’ s strong showing at the debate, he’ s failed to pull ahead in other key metrics – like which leader would make the best prime minister.

“The NDP is moving up in the polls so the NDP is the party the Liberals are losing their votes towards,” he said. “They have to start fighting back. At the beginning of the campaign they hoped that it was basically a two-horse race between the Liberals and Conservatives, but that is Doug Ford’ s campaign says the Progressive Conservatives would cancel some business support programs if they form government next month, but would keep others . The Tory leader was in Niagara Falls, Ont., today to talk about his plan to attract and retain business in Ontario, including lowering corporate income

According to the CBC's Canada Poll Tracker, an aggregation of all publicly available polling data, the Liberals are leading with 35.8 per cent support nationwide. The Conservatives trail in second with 29.8 per cent and the NDP is in third with 18.1 per cent.

The Bloc Québécois and Greens have 6.9 and 6.4 per cent support respectively, followed by the People's Party at 1.7 per cent.

That polling landscape isn't vastly different from the results of the 2019 federal election. But those extra three percentage points going to the Liberals at the expense of the Conservatives might be just enough to inch the Liberals past the 170-seat threshold needed for a majority in the House of Commons.

The Poll Tracker estimates that the Liberals likely would come up just short if an election were held today, with around 169 seats. But there are more than enough close races that could put them over the top. The Conservatives would take around 110 seats, while 31 seats would go to the Bloc, 26 to the NDP and two to the Greens.

Tasha Kheiriddin: Let the fun begin at duelling Liberal, NDP policy conventions

  Tasha Kheiriddin: Let the fun begin at duelling Liberal, NDP policy conventions Last month, the Conservatives held a virtual party convention; this weekend, it’s the NDP and Liberals’ turn. And what a jolly time it promises to be, with policy resolutions that veer from centre-left to downright Trotskyite. Both parties propose a guaranteed basic income, a transition to a green energy economy, and to protect worker pensions. But the NDP then gets creative. Abolish billionaires? Nationalize major auto companies? Phase out the Canadian Armed Forces? Ah, let the fun begin. © Provided by National Post Delegates text at a Liberal convention in Winnipeg in a file photo from May 27, 2016.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh criticized the Liberals for turning a Conservative motion into a confidence matter, which could trigger an election, but still sided with the governing party . “ New Democrats will not give Prime Minister Trudeau the election he’ s looking for,” he said. The Liberals agreed to waive that exemption when they released heavily redacted documents in the summer. The Conservative motion called on the government to hand over unredacted versions of those documents and for records from the Speakers' Spotlight agency related to the speaking engagements of the Prime Minister and his

Others speakers include Manitoba NDP Leader Wab Kinew, Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwath, and Kate White, leader of the Yukon New Democrats. The Liberals have released a list of speakers for their virtual convention. Not surprisingly, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minister Chrystia Asked whether Mr. Carney is, at this point, a member of the Liberal party , Braeden Caley, the party ’ s senior director of communications, said Monday that he could not comment. “For privacy reasons, as a matter of course, the party does not comment on whether any specific Canadian is registered as a

The only significant shift since the last election would be a net exchange of about a dozen seats between the Liberals and the Conservatives.

a man wearing a suit and tie: Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole has not experienced a bump in the polls since becoming leader last August. © Sean Kilpatrick / Canadian Press Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole has not experienced a bump in the polls since becoming leader last August.

But with the Conservatives now polling just under 30 per cent — their historic floor — there might not be many more voters for the Liberals to find in that direction.

The Liberals and NDP, however, share a bigger pool of voters. According to the Angus Reid Institute, 51 per cent of Liberal voters rank the NDP as their second choice, while 43 per cent of NDP voters rank the Liberals as their second choice. By comparison, just 12 per cent of Liberal or Conservative voters rank the other party as their back-up.

That means the Liberals could use a few more NDP votes to get them where they want to be.

Stars' Sexy Siblings

  Stars' Sexy Siblings Stars' Sexy Siblings

But the NDP Leader came to an agreement with the three-seat Green Party and a new minority government was born, one many political observers thought would be lucky to survive a calendar year. When the history of this government is written, an early decision on a hugely controversial issue will be viewed as pivotal: the NDP ’ s support for the Site C dam. The NDP decided to go forward, surprising many, especially in the resource and business community. It showed that these New Democrats, unlike earlier iterations, weren’t afraid of angering their base in the name of the greater good.

While NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair has emerged as a strong opponent to Prime Minister Stephen Harper in the House of Commons, the numbers suggest the party ' s message may not be resonating as well outside of Ottawa, pollster Nik Nanos said. At the same time, support for the Liberals has increased overall during the past eight months, the poll suggests. Mr. Nanos said the change could be connected to the fact that the party has been gearing up for its leadership race. "Many times, when parties don't have leaders, they do better in popular support, because there' s nothing to repel voters."

Liberals need just a little bump

The Liberals have been leading in the polls without interruption since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Voting intentions have been largely unchanged since the end of last summer, although the margin between the Liberals and Conservatives has widened slightly from about four or five points to about five or six points.

That's due as much to the Conservatives' own struggles under their new leader Erin O'Toole as it is to anything the Liberals have done.

It puts Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in a tantalizing position. His party has been straddling the 170-seat threshold in the Poll Tracker since early August, putting a majority government just in reach — but also opening up the possibility of the Liberals taking a gamble on an early election without hitting the jackpot.


Video: Nominations for New Brunswick government elections to close (Global News)

Justin Trudeau, Justin Trudeau are posing for a picture: The Liberals have more support today than they did in the 2019 federal election. It might be enough to win them a majority government. © Sean Kilpatrick / Canadian Press The Liberals have more support today than they did in the 2019 federal election. It might be enough to win them a majority government.

But the party's national lead in the polls is wider than it looks because of how it breaks down across the country.

Yukon's election shows why every vote matters — especially for Justin Trudeau's Liberals

  Yukon's election shows why every vote matters — especially for Justin Trudeau's Liberals The Yukon territorial election ended in a tie, but the performance of the conservative Yukon Party could mean the federal Liberals end up struggling to hold the territory's federal seat.Yukon's territorial election on Monday ended in a tie — in more ways than one. Premier Sandy Silver's Yukon Liberals and the opposition Yukon Party under Currie Dixon finished the night with eight seats apiece. Kate White's Yukon New Democrats won two seats.

The Liberals have been consistently ahead of the Conservatives by about 10 points in Ontario and enjoy a wider lead over the Bloc Québécois in Quebec than they did in the 2019 election. This means the Liberals would very likely hold — and possibly grow beyond — the 114 seats they won in these two provinces in the last election.

In Atlantic Canada, Liberal support may already be maxed out, giving them few prospects for gains. The party is estimated to be ahead by at least 10 points in all four Atlantic provinces but it can't count on wrenching more than a seat or two back from the opposition parties, which hold a combined six ridings in the region.

That leaves the Liberals looking to Western Canada for the top-up they need to reach 170.

The Liberals' lead in British Columbia is important for the party. They are up six points in the province over the last election result, enough to net them a half-dozen extra seats. That alone covers about half of the 13 seats that separated the Liberals from a majority win in 2019.

The unpopularity of provincial premiers Jason Kenney in Alberta and Brian Pallister in Manitoba might help the Liberals steal a few extra seats in those provinces. On balance, however, the Liberals likely would find it easier to pad their seat count by making gains in Ontario and Quebec than by looking for a handful of upsets in the West.

The West Block — Episode 28, Season 10

  The West Block — Episode 28, Season 10 Watch the full episode of The West Block on Sunday, April 4, 2021.Episode 28, Season 10

Signs of growth and stagnation for the NDP

A handful of upsets might be a more achievable goal for the New Democrats — who, after seeing an increase in support from a low last spring, have seen their numbers stabilize in the polls.

It also means their likely seat haul has settled somewhere a little north of 25 seats — just a few more than they currently hold.

At the moment, the party's best prospects seem to be where their provincial cousins have enjoyed success. The federal NDP experienced a boost in support in B.C. after John Horgan secured a majority government for his provincial NDP in October's election. That bump has been sustained, meaning Jagmeet Singh's NDP is challenging the Conservatives for second place in the province. That opens up a few seats to the New Democrats.

Alberta and Manitoba, where the provincial New Democrats have edged ahead of Kenney's United Conservatives and Pallister's Progressive Conservatives in polls, also hold some promise for the federal NDP, if only for a seat or two.

Jagmeet Singh wearing a blue hat: NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has stabilized his party's support but will need to improve those numbers to win many more seats in the next election. © Sean Kilpatrick / Canadian Press NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has stabilized his party's support but will need to improve those numbers to win many more seats in the next election.

Singh's New Democrats have inched up in the polls in Ontario, but they will face a challenge from the Greens in the Toronto seats the NDP lost to the Liberals in 2015 (and again in 2019).

Quebec remains a problem area for the New Democrats. At under 11 per cent in the polls, the NDP is where it was in 2019 when the party won only a single seat in the province.

Singh faces 2nd leadership review as NDP policy convention enters final day

  Singh faces 2nd leadership review as NDP policy convention enters final day NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh will stare down his second leadership review later today when more than 2,000 convention delegates decide whether they should trigger a leadership race within the party. The NDP is gearing up for the final day of its virtual policy convention, which has been beset by technical glitches, missing accessibility services at times, and has been slowed by a flurry of points of order and points of privilege from delegates.

Atlantic Canada is also looking like barren ground for New Democrats. The party is polling no better than it did in the last election, when it won just one seat in Newfoundland and Labrador. The party is, at best, vying for second with the Conservatives in that province, as well as in Nova Scotia.

In Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick, meanwhile, the Greens have supplanted the NDP in their traditional third spot.

Setting the stage for whenever the show will begin

These numbers describe what has been a steady public opinion environment for the past few months. The virtual party conventions aren't likely to do much to change that.

Instead, the most important variables are vaccines and variants. The state of the pandemic is the biggest wild card in any electoral calculation. It might be well into the summer before anyone gets comfortable with the idea of holding an election.

Whenever the election does happen, the Liberals will be hoping that their handling of the pandemic — and, who knows, maybe even a policy idea or two that comes from this week's convention — will be enough to win them the majority they lost in 2019.

The New Democrats will do whatever they can to prevent that from happening (and the Conservatives wouldn't mind some help from the orange team, either).

In the end, the next election likely will be decided between Trudeau and O'Toole, not Trudeau and Singh. But the NDP will be competing with the Liberals for a lot of the same voters — if not always the same seats. And the success of one partly likely will mean the failure of the other.

Quebec is key to election success, but for NDP the locks are rusty .
OTTAWA — For NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, the path to a stronger presence in Parliament runs through Quebec — but the trail is littered with obstacles. New Democrats, whose members gather virtually for a policy convention this weekend, are targeting younger voters with renewed pitches on student debt relief, more affordable housing and a cap on cellphone and internet bills. All were highlighted during a visit to la belle province last week. But the party is polling below 20 per cent with little concentration of support outside of a few neighbourhoods in Montreal, says Karl Bélanger, president of consulting firm Traxxion Strategies and former senior adviser to the NDP.

usr: 1
This is interesting!