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Canada ELECTION INSIGHTS: If B.C. were Canada, it would be between Singh and O'Toole for prime minister

01:25  17 september  2021
01:25  17 september  2021 Source:   nationalpost.com

John Ivison: Trudeau drops the sunny ways and treads into dangerous territory

  John Ivison: Trudeau drops the sunny ways and treads into dangerous territory What does Justin Trudeau do for an encore? Much of his media availability in Welland, Ont., on Monday was devoted to belittling Erin O’Toole. It is a sign of how rattled the Liberals are that Trudeau invoked the trifecta of progressive hobgoblins — anti-vaxxers, anti-choicers and climate deniers, all of whom, Trudeau claims, are pulling O’Toole’s strings. “He can’t even convince his party that climate change is real,” Trudeau said, conjuring up the vote at the Conservative policy convention in March, where delegates rejected the statement that “climate change is real” and the party is “willing to act.

The prime minister ’s argument that he needs strong majority of seats in the House of Commons to lead the pandemic recovery has left many unpersuaded, since he’s already been doing that with a plurality. When Mr. O ’ Toole was in college, his father left a management job at General Motors’ Canadian head office east of Toronto to become a conservative member of the provincial legislature, a post he would hold for 19 years. A door opened for Mr. O ’ Toole to enter politics in 2012, after he had worked for two large law firms in Toronto and later as corporate counsel at Procter & Gamble Canada .

President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced the new working group this week as part of a thinly disguised move to counter China. The partnership will include the sharing of advanced technologies, such as artificial “Yes,” O ’ Toole said at a campaign stop in Saint John, New Brunswick, before adding that Canada needs to be at any table where there are discussions of global trade, standing up for workers, security, cybersecurity, public safety and human rights. The Conservative leader then shifted to criticizing his

For the rest of Election 44, the National Post will be sharing insights from Polly, an artificial intelligence engine developed at the University of Ottawa that was the only pollster to correctly predict the results of the 2019 election. Unlike typical polls, Polly gauges public opinion through constant computer analysis of public social media posts: If you’ve ever posted something political to Facebook, Twitter or Instagram, you’re probably part of Polly’s dataset. Today, a look at how B.C. has been home to the most volatile electoral fortunes in the country.

a group of people on a sidewalk: Liberal leader Justin Trudeau leaves a campaign event in Vancouver on September 13. Each subsequent day of the campaign saw B.C. progressively turning against the Liberals. © Provided by National Post Liberal leader Justin Trudeau leaves a campaign event in Vancouver on September 13. Each subsequent day of the campaign saw B.C. progressively turning against the Liberals.

While Election 44 has proven to be far more dramatic than the Liberal walkover that was expected, most Canadians continue to live in ridings where the incumbent party is expected to win.

Live updates: Leaders face off in second federal election debate in French

  Live updates: Leaders face off in second federal election debate in French This is the Montreal Gazette’s live coverage of tonight’s federal leaders’ debate. Questions/comments? ariga@postmedia.com Top updates: Trudeau and O’Toole neck and neck with less than two weeks left in campaign: Leger poll Welcome to our live coverage Tonight’s French debate, Thursday’s English debate pivotal for federal leaders In 2019, the Liberals narrowly outpaced the Bloc in Quebec The Greens were poised for a breakthrough in 2019. Now their woes may impact the wider election Opinion: With two weeks to go, the real campaign is beginning Opinion: No room for error in Round 2 of federal leaders’ debates Opinion: With two weeks to go, can Justin Trudeau reverse th

Singh said that would - be NDP voters should reject calls to vote strategically this time. "I know that the Liberals have raised this every time. Every election , right near the end, they say, 'OK, now I've got to vote strategically,'" Singh said, adding that the Liberal government has kept cell phone bills high and While Trudeau and Singh slugged it out over progressive voters, O ' Toole made a play for more moderate voters at a campaign stop in Saguenay, Que. O ' Toole has made a pitch to disaffected Liberal voters frustrated by Trudeau's record in office. While past party leaders like former prime minister

TORONTO — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has called a snap federal election for Monday, betting that he would regain a majority in the House of Commons on the back of his handling of the pandemic. Opposition leaders of all political stripes griped about the decision to call an election in the fourth wave of the pandemic, casting it as “reckless” and “irresponsible” — an example, Conservative Party leader Erin O ’ Toole said, of Trudeau putting his “own political interests ahead of the well- being of thousands of people.”

Polly has indeed tracked Election 44 as being a story of rising Conservative fortunes threatening entrenched Liberal power, but it’s a campaign that’s largely been fought at the margins. A couple more seats in Atlantic Canada, a few Liberal ridings in Quebec going to the Bloc Québecois, and a handful of suburban Toronto ridings being flipped by a few thousand votes apiece.

Not in B.C.

While the rest of Canada has been watching an extended stalemate between the Liberals and Conservatives, British Columbia has been plunged into an electoral epic in which all three of the major parties have spent at least some of the campaign in first place.

chart, line chart:  The coloured lines aren’t nearly as squiggly or criss-crossy in the rest of Canada. The coloured lines aren’t nearly as squiggly or criss-crossy in the rest of Canada.

According to Polly’s projections, if the rest of Canada voted like B.C., Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau would already be staring an ignominious defeat in the face, while an anxious nation watched to see whether NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh or Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole would be forming the next minority government.

FIRST READING: The Conservatives’ enthusiastic abandonment of conservatism

  FIRST READING: The Conservatives’ enthusiastic abandonment of conservatism Throughout Election 44 we are publishing this special daily edition of First Reading, our politics newsletter, to keep you posted on the ins and outs (and way outs) of the campaign. To get an early version sent direct to your inbox every weekday at 6 p.m. ET, sign up here. DEBATE HIGHLIGHTS Last night was the only English-language debate of Election 44. Find the National Post’s full recap here. What follows are First Reading’s highlights from the Wednesday French-language debate (or “debat des chefs,” as they call it). “ I’m sorry Mr. Trudeau, but this is an undesired election ,” was how moderator Patrice Roy opened the debate .

He has been leader of Canada ’s Conservative Party since August 2020. But it is his 12 years in the air force that he wants Canadians to remember when they vote. He appears in a form-fitting T-shirt, ready for action, on the cover of the Conservatives’ election manifesto, which touts him as “the man with the plan”. Mr O ’ Toole admits that the Conservatives, who are strongest in oil-producing Alberta and Saskatchewan, have to win back trust on such issues as climate change and “reconciliation” with indigenous Canadians . His government would boost tax credits for people on low wages and help

Former prime minister Brian Mulroney hit the campaign trail for Erin O ' Toole as the Conservative campaign went to Quebec. O ’ Toole said that his party, like others, has let down voters in the past, and asserted that under his leadership things will change, something his predecessor emphasized as well. “Today, I want to talk to the many Canadians who are beginning to tune in to this election in its final days, and maybe—hopefully—looking at the Conservatives for the first time,” O ’ Toole said at a campaign event at a legion in a Bloc Quebecois-held riding north of Quebec City.

Ironically, it was the exact opposite only three weeks ago. When Trudeau called this election, B.C. was supposed to be the lynchpin of his expected majority government. Polly had the Liberals capturing 20 of the province’s 42 seats — a near doubling of the 11 B.C. seats that the party won in 2019.

But each subsequent day of the campaign saw B.C. progressively turning against the Liberals. By September, they were back down to 11 seats. And now, the Liberals will be lucky if they enter the House of Commons with a B.C. caucus in the double digits — and all of those seats will almost certainly be concentrated solely in the Lower Mainland.

Into the void, meanwhile, has surged a pitched battle for supremacy between the Conservatives and the NDP.

B.C. is one of the only places in Canada where ridings will swap from Blue to Orange without considering Red, and this fight has been on full display all month.

Chris Selley: O'Toole is widening his base but risks alienating party members

  Chris Selley: O'Toole is widening his base but risks alienating party members VANCOUVER — Conservatives may caricature Justin Trudeau as a vain narcissist who’s far too enamoured of his own voice. No one would deny that he likes the microphone. But Trudeau’s daily press conferences are far more a group effort than Erin O’Toole’s. Local candidates usually introduce Trudeau: Caroline Desrochers in La Prairie on Sunday, Sven Spengemann in Mississauga-Lakeshore the day before, Margaret Bennett in Hamilton Centre the day before that. Other candidates in attendance at least get a shout-out. © Provided by National Post Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole makes an announcement at an election campaign visit to Vancouver, B.C. on Sept.

Polls show Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's center-left Liberals virtually tied with the opposition Conservatives ahead of the Sept. 20 vote, raising the prospect that no party will be able to form even a stable minority government. Adding to the uncertainty is an expected increase in mail-in voting that could delay the counting of ballots in some key electoral ridings. Financial markets generally view Canadian elections from the vantage point of which of the big parties would be most friendly for investors, but that tendency may take a backseat this time to the desire to have a government quickly

Canada 's Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau walks with his wife Sophie Gregoire Trudeau after an election campaign stop in Montreal. Trudeau faces Canada 's Conservative Party leader Erin O ' Toole in the Sept. 20th election . More than 77% of eligible Canadians are fully vaccinated, but a Delta-driven fourth wave has 'This will be an unusual election because we will break the record for mail-in ballots federally. That plus the pandemic makes it difficult to get a sense of the likely voter turnout,' said Nik Nanos, the head of Nanos Research. Trudeau was attacked by his rivals on Wednesday, after data

It was on Aug. 25 that Polly first had the Conservatives poised to take a plurality of B.C. seats. On that day, the Tories were poised to take 15 seats to the Liberals’ 14 and the NDP’s 11.

By Sept. 1, the Tories reached their highest-ever projection of 19 seats. And then, by the start of this week, they were in a direct tie with the NDP at 15 seats apiece.

As to why, the first reason was the Liberals’ fickle B.C. support at the beginning of this election. While the province appeared to be fine with Liberal governance amid rising job numbers and a reopening economy, that sentiment evaporated as soon as the Liberals interpreted it as a signal to gain more power.

Cost of living is also a factor. B.C. is home to Canada’s highest gas prices and its highest real estate prices, among others, and polls have consistently shown that voters trust both of the Conservatives and the NDP on these issues far more than the incumbent.

A final note on B.C.: The Green Party appears to be poised to return to the House of Commons only as the party of Elizabeth May. In the beginning of this election, Polly was projecting that the Greens could hope for their 2019 result of electing two B.C. MPs. As of press time, however, the British Columbians not in Saanich-Gulf Islands have pretty much decided to swap their Green votes for the NDP.

From now until the bitter end of Election 44, the National Post is publishing a special daily edition of First Reading, our politics newsletter, to keep you posted on the ins and outs (and way outs) of the campaign. All curated by the National Post’s own Tristin Hopper and published Monday to Friday at 6 p.m. and Sundays at 9 a.m. Sign up here.

John Ivison: Trudeau shall reap the whirlwind .
If the 43rd and 44th Canadian parliaments promise to be as similar as Tweedledum and Tweedledee, it does not mean the election campaign was without consequence. Justin Trudeau, in his acceptance speech, said some have talked about divisions in the country “but that’s not what I see.” That is wilful blindness. Trudeau’s Liberal Party has retained power — just — but has lost nearly two million votes since its resounding win in 2015; the prime minister has won two elections with a smaller share of the popular vote than his Conservative rivals; he has helped bolster the far right People’s Party, which attracted more than 800,000 votes, and by calling an election in a pandemic,

usr: 0
This is interesting!