Canada Voters have grown more angry, apathetic about election throughout campaign: poll
Conservative lead growing slightly as Liberal, NDP election campaigns hit wall: poll
The Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News found that 35 per cent of decided voters would vote for the Tories, up three points from last week. The Liberals would earn 32 per cent of the vote, up one point, while the NDP went down two points to receive 21 per cent. "I think what we're seeing here is a bit of a consolidation of the vote on the right behind the Conservatives," said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs. "(People are) starting to believe that the Conservatives actually might be able to beat the Liberal Party this time.
Voters are heading intomore angry and apathetic about going to the polls than they were at the start of the campaign, a new poll suggests, making the result more uncertain than ever before.
conducted exclusively for Global News found more than two-thirds of voters surveyed -- 69 per cent -- feel the election should not have been called in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. That's up 13 points from when the election was called, which pollsters say they have not seen before.
Live updates: Leaders face off in second federal election debate in French
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"The why and the when this election was called has blotted out the sun for anything else that's occurred in this campaign," said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs.
He said voters typically get over their frustrations quickly and accept that a campaign is underway. Instead, the pandemic has created the opposite environment, which has dogged Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party as they struggle to defend calling an election.
Notably, 60 per cent of Liberal voters agreed that now is not the time to be choosing a new government.
"What we're hearing from respondents is they have a desire to get to something that looks like normal," Bricker said.
"They just feel that it's inappropriate to be forced to consider political consequences during a time in which they're dealing with really practical issues."
Protests not influencing polls, but Canadians growing frustrated with pandemic election
An Ipsos poll reveals a generational divide amongst how voters perceive the election call -- the older the voter, the more likely they are against the idea of a pandemic election.According to a recent Ipsos poll for Global News, only 17 per cent of respondents said the protests will impact their vote.
That anger -- and voters' search for clarity on what the next stage of the pandemic will look like -- has led to a growing sense of apathy towards the political parties, the poll suggests.
Nearly half of those surveyed said they don't like any of their options in this election, up 11 points since the start of the campaign.
Ipsos surveyed over 2,000 Canadian voters last weekend online and over the phone.
Conservative advantage at ballot box?
The results found that among the 62 per cent of voters who say they are certain they will vote on Monday, Conservative and Bloc Quebecois voters were most likely to insist they will show up to the polls.
Similarly, Conservative and Bloc voters were also more likely to say they are committed to their choice, with Liberal, NDP and Green voters slightly less sure. Overall, just 53 per cent of Canadians surveyed said they are certain of who they'll vote for.
For NDP, optimism in Halifax is more than skin deep: 'It feels very positive'
As Lisa Roberts canvasses in Halifax’s North End, part of her election campaign pitch is to harken back to when the riding was an NDP stronghold. Roberts tells those who answer the door that she is trying to win back the riding previously held by Alexa McDonough and then Megan Leslie. McDonough looms large in both the political history of the region and of the NDP; she was the first woman to lead a major political party in Canada when she took the helm of the Nova Scotia NDP 40 years ago and then led the federal NDP for eight years, stepping down in 2003. Roberts has a history of her own in the area, having twice been elected as the provincial MLA in Halifax Needham.
The NDP, meanwhile, may have the biggest opportunity to attract last-minute votes, with one in four Canadians picking the party as its second choice. Between 10 and 13 per cent chose one of the other major parties.
Despite all that, 36 per cent of respondents believe the Liberals will win the election, compared to 25 per cent saying the Conservatives will come out on top. Nearly one in three Canadians said they don't know who will win.
"Calibrating (which voters are more motivated) is pretty difficult," said Bricker.
"If Conservatives are really motivated by the idea of having a shot at Justin Trudeau this time, their turnout could be pretty similar to what we've seen in previous elections. While Liberals may think, 'God, I'm really not that enthusiastic about voting for the Liberal Party this time,' it could be lower than they expect."
How voters cast their ballot may also play a role. The poll suggests NDP voters are most likely to vote by mail compared to other parties, with 13 per cent saying so compared to eight per cent of Liberal voters and just three per cent of Conservatives.
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About a quarter of NDP and Green voters also disagreed that voting in person will be safe -- the highest number among decided voters -- suggesting the parties could see less votes than hoped for. Overall, 22 per cent of Canadians said in-person voting is unsafe.
Bricker says the final days of the campaign will be focused on convincing those voters to show up, with all parties aiming to further motivate anyone who may be on the fence.
"Elections are all about emotions," he said. "In this campaign, the dominant emotions right now are anger and fear.
"So that's the question: are the angry more motivated than the fearful?"
Majority versus minority
With the Liberals' hopes for a majority government slipping away, 59 per cent of Canadians surveyed said they will be happy with a minority after this election -- a feeling most strongly held by coalition parties like the NDP and Bloc Quebecois.
Even so, four of 10 respondents said a majority would be the best result, while a third said a minority would be the best choice.
If the Liberals don't end up leading that minority government, nearly 60 per cent of Canadians feel Trudeau should resign as Liberal leader, with an even higher number -- 59 per cent -- saying he should resign if he doesn't capture a majority.
COMMENTARY: A tarnished Trudeau, Bernier bump or hung Parliament? Shockers and probabilities for election night
We’re almost certainly getting another minority government come election night, says Randy Boswell, and it may not be immediately clear who will get to become prime minister. That’s right: finishing first in Monday’s vote is not an iron-clad guarantee the top party’s leader will take command of the Prime Minister's Office (PMO). However, the threshold for forming a government isn’t complicated. Strike a formal or tacit agreement among 170 MPs to pursue a legislative agenda — from as many parties as it takes — and you get the keys to the kingdom.
Half of Canadians surveyed said Erin O'Toole should resign as Conservative leader if his party doesn't win the election, compared to just 37 per cent who said the same of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between September 10 and 13, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n = 2,001 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed. A sample of n = 1,501 was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. A sample of n = 500 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed by live-interview telephone interviewers by landline and cellphone, using random-digit dialing. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here:
Canadians head to the polls as political wildcards leave election outcome up in the air .
Canadians head to the polls today for the final day of voting in this 44th general election and surveys suggest the result is far from certain with as many as six parties in contention for seats in Parliament. More than 5.8 million Canadians have already voted in the advance polls, and Elections Canada has received nearly one million special ballots — a record-setting early turnout that suggests there's an energized electorate. Poll workers will start the vote count tonight, but the outcome may not be known until tomorrow after the many mail-in ballots are verified at hundreds of returning offices nationwide.