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Canada Facing COVID-19, the French "in much better situation to approach autumn and winter"

23:35  19 october  2021
23:35  19 october  2021 Source:   nouvelobs.com

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  Face au Covid-19, les Français « en bien meilleure situation pour aborder l’automne et l’hiver » © Copyright 2021, Obs

"The epidemic begins to gain ground. The Government spokesman Gabriel Attal wanted prudent on Tuesday, October 19th on RTL. "That there is a very slight recovery, it could be expected, what it takes is to be vigilant," he said to the number of new cases of Covid-19 that go back in recent days Believing it was still "far too early" to talk about a fifth wave of the epidemic. While France was last year at the same time the beginning of its second wave, the situation could evolve differently this year, according to epidemiologist Antoine Flahault, Professor of Public Health at the Faculty of Medicine of Geneva.

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The departments where COVID goes on more and more numerous

How to interpret these recent case increases in France?

It is unclear to explain the case increases, but among the hypotheses include the arrival of the cold season, with social interactions multiplied indoors, the import of cases of high traffic areas, Relaxing barrier gestures or the emergence of new variants.

France, Switzerland, Italy, Spain and Portugal, however, seem to remain the last bastions of the CVIV-19 lull in Europe. A new wave is raging in the east of Europe, in Romania, Bulgaria, Russia, Ukraine, in particular, with a very high tension on the health system and an appalling mortality. These countries have their stronger wave since the beginning of the pandemic and have low vaccine coverage - between 30 and 40%. A rebound is observed in several countries of northern Western Europe, better vaccinated. There is little chance that France escapes this autumn rebound that is generalized on the continent, but it is possible, however, that the combination of measures implemented [vaccination, mask and sanitary pass, NDLR] allows it to Limit the rise in serious cases and deaths.

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When can we see more clearly in these numbers?

It is impossible to predict this pandemic from the beginning, so we do not know if rebound there will be, when it will take place and what force it will have.

Overseas, the number of new daily cases oscillates between 35,000 and 45,000: Can France follow the same path?

The United Kingdom, vaccinated nearly 75%, failed to bring down the high plateau of contamination and high mortality it has experienced since mid-July. Hospitalizations and deaths are far from a low level, the country reporting 140 deaths a day, which is currently doing one of the first causes of mortality in the country.

France, it did not follow the path of the British when they have lifted all their sanitary measures on July 19, in the midst of the Delta wave. On the contrary, it has established the sanitary pass and continued the obligation of the port of the mask. The French are now in much better position to approach the fall and winter, with a margin before the saturation of its hospital system than already the United Kingdom.

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There have no reason to believe that they will be more violent than in previous years, but these winter viruses are likely to add to the burden that the health system could still know with COVID. Barrier gestures have been very effective in limiting the magnitude last winter, and could prove to be useful again this winter.

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The CVIV-19 tests have become paid Friday for non-vaccinated French: what impact can this decision have on the rest of the 'epidemic?

The end of free testing from October 15 has already had a first impact on sanitary watch, which is disturbed these days by decreasing the number of tests that artificially decreases the number of new cases detected and disrupted - down too - the value of the effective reproduction rate. Hospitalizations and deaths are affected little affected.

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