Canada IMF gives forecasts: This is how it works for the oil price 2022 Next

04:56  28 january  2022
04:56  28 january  2022 Source:   finanzen.net

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently been unsuccessful for the global economy and reduced its growth forecasts. The experts also gave an assessment for the development of oil prices.

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• Experts reduce economic forecasts and calculations with more inflation

• Oil price as an inflation driver

• Oil prices 2022 EXPECTED

The January report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was not optimistic. The business recovery builds, which has caused the experts to correct their prognosis for the development of the global economy down. Accordingly, the IMF now expects a 0.5 percentage point of small growth than in October: Global, the economy of the economy trusts an growth of 4.4 percent .

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Guilt is also the inflation , which is probably expected to be significantly higher in 2022 than expected a few months ago. In the industrialized countries, the IMF expects an inflation rate of 3.9 percent - 1.6 percent more than in the previous view. In developing and emerging economies, the IMF expects an increase in inflation from average 5.9 percent in 2022 - only the year the experts expect a relaxation on the inflation front.

Average oil price increase awaits

A big driver of inflation are also the ever higher prices for oil . The international oil cartel OPEC + last raised the flow of funding as planned, in February, 400,000 barrels (159 liters each) of crude oil should be promoted a day. Thus, the cartel responded to oil demand, which has currently recharged on its pre-corona level. But the offer remains scarce. In addition, some conveyor states have to fight with capacity issues and can not comply with the agreed conveying volumes against this background.

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In addition, geopolitical events do the price of oil: the uncertainty about the supply situation with crude oil In view of a threatening invasion of Russia into Ukraine, market participants drives additional worries on the forehead.

The oil market is located in a "backwardation" - the prices for oil that can be delivered promptly are higher than the prices of oil with later delivery dates. The demand for immediate available oil is therefore greater than that for future futures contracts.

The gambling is therefore pronounced for an increase in oil price in 2022 - compared to the prices from last year. In the current year, the average oil price is intended to increase the IMF estimates by 11.9 percent at the previous year.

For the year 2023, the experts say a relaxation on the oil market, in 2023, prices for crude oil should fall by 7.8 percent to the report. The terminal markets suggested that oil prices in 2022 will increase by about 12 percent and the natural gas prices by 58 percent (both being significantly lower than in 2021) and in 2023, as the imbalance between supply and demand continues Let the analysts.

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