Money: CREA upgrades home sales forecast for 2019 to show 1.2 per cent improvement - PressFrom - Canada
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MoneyCREA upgrades home sales forecast for 2019 to show 1.2 per cent improvement

19:10  14 june  2019
19:10  14 june  2019 Source:   msn.com

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Realtor.com® Forecast for Key Housing Indicators. Buying a home will be an even more expensive undertaking in 2019 as mortgage rates and home prices increase. Although the number of homes for sale is increasing, which is an improvement for buyers, the majority of new inventory is focused in

The Canadian Real Estate Association ( CREA ) has cut its home sales forecast for next year due to the impact of tighter mortgage regulations that come CREA said in an updated projection Thursday the banking regulator’s revised mortgage underwriting guidelines, which include a stress test for

CREA upgrades home sales forecast for 2019 to show 1.2 per cent improvement© Provided by Canadian Press Enterprises Inc

OTTAWA — The Canadian Real Estate Association is upgrading its forecast for 2019 home sales, which are now expected to show a slight improvement compared with last year.

The association said home sales are projected to edge up 1.2 per cent from last year to 463,000 units in 2019 compared with its previous forecast of a decline of 1.6 per cent this year.

The updated outlook came as CREA reported home sales in May were up 6.7 per cent compared with a year ago, the largest year-over-year increase since 2016.

On a month-over-month basis, sales in May through the Multiple Listing Service were up 1.9 per cent.

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Canadian home sales slowed yet again in November as the national stress test continues to take steam out of the market, resulting in a forecasted Gregory Klump, CREA ’s chief economist, puts the blame for slower activity squarely on the national mortgage stress test, which requires borrowers of

“In 2019 , home sales activity and prices are expected to be held in check by recent policy changes from different levels of government, in addition to additional interest rate increases,” the group said in a forecast released Monday. CREA has also revised down its projections for 2018, now saying that it

"Defying the gloom-and-doomers, the Canadian housing market is gradually regaining strength, powered by falling long-term interest rates and the fastest population gains in a generation," Bank of Montreal chief economist Doug Porter wrote in a report.

The improvement in sales was driven by the Greater Toronto Area, which accounted for close to half of the overall increase.

"That rebound in sales has brought the GTA market back into better balance, and has helped lift prices at a moderate pace," Porter wrote.

The national average price for a home sold in May was close to $508,000, up 1.8 per cent from a year ago. Excluding the Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto Area, two of the country's most expensive markets, the average price was just under $397,000.

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In 2019 , home sales activity and prices are expected to be held in check by recent policy changes from different levels of government, in addition to additional The national forecast has been revised lower since CREA 's September forecast as an anticipated rebound in sales in British Columbia has so far

Consumers should expect home sales to flatten and home prices to continue to increase, though at "Ninety percent of markets are experiencing price gains while very few are experiencing consistent "NAR research shows that a lower percentage of consumers think that now is a good time to buy

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Home sales softened last year in the wake of new mortgage stress test rules and a rise in mortgage rates.

However, sales have improved in recent months as mortgage rates have trended lower and the economy shows signs of rebounding after the weakness at the end of 2018 and the start of 2019.

TD Bank economist Rishi Sondhi said that markets have also had additional time to adjust to federal and provincial policy measures, which weighed significantly on activity last year.

"Moving forward, we look for sales to trend higher, lifted by a rising population, a more stable rate environment and supportive federal measures," Sondhi wrote in a report.

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Sales Down Across Canada. CREA projects sales in British Columbia and Ontario to drop by about The association said sales in August were down in almost two -thirds of all local markets, led by the “Experience shows that homebuyers watch mortgage rates carefully and that recent interest rate

CREA raised its home sales forecast Monday on the back of stronger than expected sales in “Although this boost was and still is expected to be transitory, sales have yet to show signs of The higher forecast came as CREA said that sales through its MLS system in August were up 2.1 per

CREA also pointed to several changes in the federal budget this year to help potential buyers.

The spring budget raised the maximum individual RRSP withdrawal limit under the home buyers' plan and announced plans for a new shared equity program to help first time buyers.

However, CREA said the overall level of home sales is expected to remain below where it was in recent years and noted that the outlook for 2019 is below the 10-year average and well short of the record set in 2016, when almost 540,000 homes were sold.

Regionally, the association said New Brunswick is expected to see sales rise 10.6 per cent this year, while Quebec is forecast to climb 7.7 per cent. Ontario is expected to gain 3.9 per cent.

Home sales in British Columbia are expected to drop 13.3 per cent this year, while Alberta is forecast to fall 0.9 per cent.

The national average price is forecast to edge down 0.6 per cent to around $485,000 this year following a 4.1 per cent drop in 2018.

In 2020, CREA predicted home sales will rise 4.4 per cent to 483,200, while the national average price is forecast to edge up by 0.9 per cent to around $490,000 next year.

Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales rose 1.7 per cent in April.
Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales rose 1.7 per cent in April

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