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Money ECB should extend and increase stimuli: Bloomberg survey

16:10  04 december  2020
16:10  04 december  2020 Source:   ksta.de

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The European Central Bank will extend two key stimulus programs through the end of next year to support the economy until vaccines are widely enough ECB is seen boosting PEPP by another 500 billion euros in December. Source: ECB , Bloomberg survey of economists conducted Nov.

The European Central Bank will decide on Thursday if more than 1 trillion euros (.1 trillion) in asset purchases and a generous lending plan are enough to More Stimulus . Economists see the ECB boosting emergency bond buying later this year. Source: ECB , Bloomberg survey of economists

(Bloomberg) - The European Central Bank will extend two important stimulus programs by the end of next year to support the economy. This is the result of a Bloomberg survey of economists.

The respondents expect that the monetary policy decision-makers at their virtual meeting on December 10th will extend their 1.35 trillion euro emergency bond purchase program PEPP by six months and increase it by 500 billion euros. The council is also expected to offer new long-term loans to banks and extend the duration of the additional incentives to maintain the flow of credit to businesses and households. None of the 33 economists surveyed expect an interest rate cut in the next week.

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European Central Bank officials will meet Thursday aware that while they’ve probably done enough to fight the coronavirus crisis for now, they face an Emergency Stimulus . Flexible, large-scale asset purchases have been the ECB ’s flagship crisis tool. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde unveiled a calibrated package of stimulus , spearheading the region’s financial response to the “I don’t understand why she said that,” Nielsen told Bloomberg Television. “As the head of the ECB , she should be very concerned about spreads

ECB Timeline © Bloomberg ECB Timeline

Given the rise in infections, which is forcing governments to new lockdowns, the ECB has already announced further measures. Central bankers such as President Christine Lagarde have identified the pandemic emergency purchase program and targeted long-term loans to banks, so-called TLTROs, as the main instruments of the ECB during the crisis .

It is true that the latest advances in vaccines against Covid-19 make it likely that the pandemic will be contained soon. But the economic consequences - such as high debt and higher unemployment - are likely to last longer.

“The end of the health crisis, which is likely to appear now in the course of 2021, does not mean the end of the economic crisis,” said Philippe Gudin, chief economist for Europe at Barclays Plc. "The ECB is likely to communicate its readiness to ensure that the path to a full recovery continues to be facilitated by very supportive liquidity and financial conditions."

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European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos talks to Bloomberg 's Paul Gordon. “We already know the scale of stimulus is falling short of what is needed. The ECB has significantly downgraded its forecasts for GDP growth in 2020 since the last time an expansion of asset purchases

European Central Bank policy makers have plenty of reasons to wait until September before committing to more stimulus . Economists and investors foresee an ECB rate cut in September. Source: survey of economists conducted July 12-17, Bloomberg .

Bond Buying © Bloomberg Bond Buying

Economists' estimates for the increase in bond purchases ranged between 250 billion and 650 billion euros. They also expect the ECB to offer banks even more generous access to their long-term loans. The exceptional terms, which provide financial institutions with a financial incentive to lend to the real economy, are likely to be extended by six months to the end of 2021.

In addition, most of the respondents assume that another round of long-term loans will be offered on even better terms every quarter. An extension of the term - currently three years - is the most likely option.

“The ECB will adjust its main monetary policy instruments, PEPP and TLTROs, and assure the markets that asset purchases will remain unchanged for the next year,” said SEB strategist Lauri Halikka. "A new line of TLTROs will secure favorable financing terms for banks."

Heading of the original article:

ECB Seen Extending and Boosting Stimulus to Battle Longer Crisis

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© 2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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