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Money Real estate credit: "The year 2023 looks very complicated"

21:20  30 november  2022
21:20  30 november  2022 Source:   mieuxvivre-votreargent.fr

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while one in two file is currently blocked in your opinion, could the solution come from variable rates?

Maël Bernier: is a marginal solution for the time being. But at a time when the European Central Bank invites banks to rethink their model, and in Europe this practice is not nonexistent, it is interesting to look at the issue of variable rates. In France we borrow at 95% at fixed rate, which largely explains market stability. But there are years of this, and young people do not necessarily know, the variable rates existed in France. Between 2000 and 2008, they even represented a third of the loans signed in France. It was for more than 9 out of 10 loans in the caps, that is to say blocked upwards (as down), but this made it possible to borrow more at the start. In this case, this could be a solution to the barrier of the wear rate. It is still necessary that the difference between fixed rates and the variable rates is notable, namely at least 70 base points.

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What is it right now?

M. B .: There is a blockage, but it is not total. We note that for borrower files over 45, the market is almost stopped, mainly due to the cost of insurance, which wedges with the wear rate (3.05%). The under 35s can still borrow, and 35-45 year olds to a lesser extent, according to their profiles. In addition, many purchases are made in cash, up to 200,000 euros. For our part, we are not far from 50% less financial files since July compared to last year.

How do you think the credit market, do you think?

M. B .: If 2022 will remain a happy new year it is mainly linked to the fact that the 1st quarter was particularly dynamic. Unfortunately, the net slowdown since this summer will have consequences on mortgage production in the 1st quarter of 2023. The year 2023 is therefore very complicated. The files processed in November 2022 will be visible in the production of the Banque de France in the first quarter of 2023, it was only at that time that we will realize the extent of the situation. Until then, the wear rate will be updated in early 2023, it should logically be around 3.5%. A rate that perfectly corresponds to the nominal rates performed in the summer of 2022, on average at 2%. This is the whole problem of this delay that takes into account the rates practiced during the previous quarter. Today, the nominal levels of real estate credits are around 2.40% and could reach 3% in the first quarter of 2023. The situation will be unlocked if the nominal rates stabilize. Everything will depend on the OAT.

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, that is to say?

M. B .: If it stopped going during the first months of the coming year, in a scenario where inflation is calm, we could witness a restart. Credit rates will inevitably be higher but will remain very low with regard to inflation. It was the period of the last 3 years that was exceptional, with rates at 1%. But rates at 3%, we have already known this, and it is not so old, that was the case in 2014!

Article Real estate credit: "The year 2023 promises to be very complicated" appeared first on Better Living your money .

Access to mortgage mortgage: the banks recalled to order .
Only a few banks would be outside the nails. But while access to mortgage is complicated for the most modest, the High Council for Financial Stability (HCSF) has warned against drifts and the absence of efforts, relate the echoes. The authority responsible for monitoring the financial system criticizes banking establishments for not sufficiently exploiting the derogations that have been granted. In principle, since January 1, 2022, the debt rate should not exceed 35 % of income.

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