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Offbeat No more home advantage in ghost games?

00:05  29 may  2020
00:05  29 may  2020 Source:   rp-online.de

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Munich. 27 games since the restart, the host won only five times: Without spectators, the home advantage in the Bundesliga seems to be gone. This contrasts with twelve away wins since the Corona break.

 Die „Gelbe Wand“ blieb gegen Bayern München leer. © Frederico Gambarini / dpa The "yellow wall" remained empty against Bayern Munich.

Borussia Dortmund without the infamous yellow wall? "It is definitely a disadvantage for us to play at home without spectators," said BVB sports director Michael Zorc. To kick on the legendary south grandstand "triggers something for us and it triggers something for the opponent as well. That is missing."

The case is also clear for Julian Nagelsmann. "If the fans are not there, the classic home advantage is gone," said the RB Leipzig coach after the disappointing 2-2 win over Hertha BSC. His Augsburg colleague Heiko Herrlich seconded after the meager 0-0 against Bundesliga bottom SC Paderborn: "We are missing our spectators everywhere."

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After three ghost game days in the House of Lords with only five home wins in 27 matches (twelve away wins) it seems clear: Corona has reduced the home advantage. Especially since two of these victories were won against a desolate Schalke 04 and one goes to Bayern Munich, the industry leader. While the home win rate was around 45 percent in each of the past two seasons, it is now only 18.5.

"The home advantage has a cough," wrote Zeit, and Leverkusen's coach Peter Bosz said: "I don't think that's a coincidence." The audience always helps the host, "he added," and if we then play as an away team without an audience, it is of course easier. " Bosz knows what he's talking about: Bayer won in Bremen (4: 1) and Mönchengladbach (3: 1), but lost at home to Wolfsburg (1: 4).

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The study of a research group led by economics professor James Reade from the University in Reading, England, also seems to support the thesis of the lost home advantage. His team has been evaluating the results of 192 ghost games in Europe since 2002 - only 36 percent won the home side, with the audience historically 46. In 34 percent of the cases there were away wins, normal are 26.

Everything clear? Not at all. The latest Bundesliga results are "impressive", Daniel Memmert admits, "that was not to be expected based on the data." However, the managing director of the Institute for Training Science and Sports Informatics at the German Sport University in Cologne also says: A sample of 27 games is "a quantity of data that does not even make scientists twitch".

Memmert therefore speaks of an "unbelievable snapshot" with "too many disruptive factors". These include derbies or the general question of who played against whom. The home advantage had also become significantly smaller in the years before Corona.

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The role of the audience, Memmert told the SID, is often overestimated. A cauldron can lead to increased vigilance, but also to more stress and mistakes. Hostile home fans can instill fear, but also push. The home advantage is more in the familiar environment, with familiar processes. "Children are also more aggressive, more dominant at home," said Memmert.

For statistically relevant statements it would take at least an entire season with ghost games. This is also suggested by the counterexample of the 2nd league: there were nine home wins in 23 matches before the top game on Thursday between Stuttgart and Hamburg. This corresponds to a comparatively normal 39.1 percent.

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