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SportsFull betting breakdown, picks for the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach

22:46  12 june  2019
22:46  12 june  2019 Source:   thescore.com

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Full betting breakdown, picks for the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach© Ross Kinnaird / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The 2019 U.S. Open presents a betting board that's flush with world-class players who could all easily win the season's third major. But golf betting is all about finding value on those with a better chance of winning than their odds suggest, and with big names at the top commanding plenty of attention, there are plenty of opportunities to exploit some mispriced options.

It also helps that the venue, Pebble Beach, is just 7,075 yards. So, unlike the recent PGA Championship at the lengthy Bethpage Black, you can't just eliminate half the field because they don't hit the ball far enough. More players have a chance to win, making a repeat of a Brooks Koepka-Dustin Johnson one-two finish a lot less likely.

Pebble Beach rewind: Reliving Tiger's most dominant win

Pebble Beach rewind: Reliving Tiger's most dominant win Many people would call Tiger Woods' historic win at the Masters in April the most impressive feat of his storied career. But when looking for his most dominant performance, there's no doubt it happened 19 years ago at iconic Pebble Beach. As the PGA Tour invades the course's picturesque layout this week for the 119th U.S. Open, it's impossible not to reflect on Woods' romp to a 15-shot victory in 2000, a display that's arguably the best in golf history. The then 24-year-old would end the championship at 12-under par, marking the first time in the event's history that a player finished better than 10-under.

The top

Full betting breakdown, picks for the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach© Provided by Score Media Ventures INC Harry How / Getty Images Sport / Getty

What you could call the "Big Four" makes up the top of the U.S. Open betting board, with Rory McIlroy (8-1), Johnson (8-1), Koepka (9-1) and Tiger Woods (12-1) entering the week as the favorites. In fact, this group has been given 3-2 odds of winning the tournament versus the field.

The numbers do suggest there's a good chance the winner comes from the top, but with no player standing out above the rest, there isn't enough value to go all-in on one of them.

However, if you're only looking for one player to bet on this week, this is an obvious group to pick from. If forced to choose, Johnson would be the best bet, with Tiger a close second, but these are not recommended plays.

The case against the other two are as follows: As dominant as Koepka has been, he's never won back-to-back majors and doesn't have an obvious advantage over the field like he did at Bethpage Black. McIlroy has missed three straight U.S. Open cuts and prefers soft conditions where birdies are easier to come by, which will not be the case at Pebble Beach.

Comprehensive guide to the 119th U.S. Open

Comprehensive guide to the 119th U.S. Open U.S. Open: 119th edition Where: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, Calif. When: June 13-16 How to watch In the United States In Canada TSN will also air featured group, featured holes all four days. Notable tee times (ET) Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Marc Leishman form a group Thursday - 10:51 a.m., Friday - 4:36 p.m. Dustin Johnson grouped with Phil Mickelson, Graeme McDowell Thursday - 11:13 a.m., Friday - 4:58 p.m. Brooks Koepka joined by

The next tier

Full betting breakdown, picks for the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach© Provided by Score Media Ventures INC Harry How / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Once you get past the top dogs, value starts to become apparent. World-class players with major championship titles on their resumes are priced above 25-1, and one could argue their chances of winning aren't that much less than the favorites.

Justin Thomas leaps off the page as a mispriced golfer at 30-1. His wrist injury is a thing of the past, and it's almost impossible to argue that Patrick Cantlay, who's priced at 18-1, is a better player than JT.

Adam Scott (33-1), Jason Day (35-1), and Francesco Molinari (40-1) all fit the mold of major winners who should play well at Pebble Beach. They've all appeared on recent major championship leaderboards, and if you bet all three, they'd pay out more than a single favorite.

Meanwhile, two under-the-radar candidates with impeccable U.S. Open records are Xander Schauffele (28-1) and Tommy Fleetwood (35-1). Schauffele's collected big PGA Tour wins in his short career and finished inside the top six in both of his past U.S. Open appearances. Fleetwood is still searching for his first win in North America, but something about U.S. Open setups brings out his best; he finished as the runner-up last year and fourth in 2017.

Koepka miffed at being left out of U.S. Open promo

Koepka miffed at being left out of U.S. Open promo Fueled to the top of the world by various slights and signs of disrespect, Brooks Koepka didn’t need to look far for an extra bit of motivation this week. Koepka said that a few fans tagged him on social media after watching one of Fox’s U.S. Open promos and noticing something strange – that the two-time defending champion didn’t appear. “We’re amazed that I wasn’t in it,” Koepka said Tuesday at Pebble Beach, where he’s looking to become the first player in more than a century to capture three consecutive U.S. Open titles. “Just kind of shocked. They’ve had over a year to put it out. So I don’t know.

Digging for long shots

Full betting breakdown, picks for the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach© Provided by Score Media Ventures INC Andrew Redington / Getty Images Sport / Getty

While it's unlikely a long shot will hoist the U.S. Open trophy, the short setup at Pebble Beach certainly levels the playing field and brings more players into consideration.

First, look for golfers with multiple things going their way, such as recent form, past U.S. Open success, or history at Pebble Beach. Brandt Snedeker (50-1) checks all three boxes following a T-4 showing in Canada. He's also a two-time winner of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and has three top-10 results in his last five U.S. Open appearances.

Elsewhere, Phil Mickelson (55-1) will have his best - and perhaps his final - chance to complete the career Grand Slam. He won the Pebble Beach Pro-Am this season and is a six-time runner-up at the U.S. Open. And Henrik Stenson (66-1) is playing great these days, especially with his irons, and will hit plenty of fairways, allowing him to stay aggressive on approach shots.

Of course, don't get carried away chasing long shots, as most of their true odds of winning are actually worse than the large numbers they are listed at. With so many elite golfers entering the week at the top of their games, it's tough to imagine a winner coming from anything higher than 75-1.

Rose opens with 65 to tie Pebble record at US Open

Rose opens with 65 to tie Pebble record at US Open PEBBLE BEACH, Calif. - Justin Rose closed out his opening round with three straight birdies to lead the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, which was all he could want. He got a little more. Rose knew what was at stake when he stood over a 12-foot birdie putt on the 18th hole in twilight Thursday from watching the telecast some six hours earlier, and from seeing Tiger Woods standing on the edge of the green. “I was thinking, ‘This would be kind of cool doing it front of the great man himself,’” Rose said. Make the putt and he not only had the lead, he would tie the U.S. Open record at Pebble Beach for the lowest round, a 6-under 65 posted by Woods in 2000 during his record romp.

Picks to win

Justin Thomas (30-1)

Full betting breakdown, picks for the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach© Provided by Score Media Ventures INC Ezra Shaw / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The last time Thomas was mispriced in a tournament was the 2018 WGC-Bridgestone, where was listed at 40-1 and won the whole thing by four shots. He's now healthy, which was proven by a tee-to-green performance at the Canadian Open that ranked second only to McIlroy. It's pretty wild to think that if Thomas had made five more putts last week, he'd probably be priced right behind Tiger, at around 15-1f.

Adam Scott (33-1)

Full betting breakdown, picks for the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach© Provided by Score Media Ventures INC Sam Greenwood / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Scott is at another level of focus this season, as he's drastically cut back his schedule to play in big events he knows he can win. He has two runner-up results already, with one coming at the Memorial - his last Tour appearance. His irons are dialed in, and if he continues to use a long putter, he won't be out of contention.

Henrik Stenson (66-1)

Full betting breakdown, picks for the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach© Provided by Score Media Ventures INC Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Stenson is simply too good of a player to be priced this high. His recent results aren't jaw-dropping, but his iron play has been off the charts over the past two months, and he should be one of the leaders in terms of driving accuracy at Pebble. The main concern is his short game, but if he's regularly missing greens, he wasn't destined to win anyway.

(Odds courtesy: Bet365)

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